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Climate change has the odd effect of making many of us inordinately excited about appliances we never used to care about. Suddenly, all the background machines, which have up to now been unconsciously powering our lives, have taken on outsized importance. Some of them have the potential to provide the essential services we depend on while, at the same time, not destroying our planet like the fossil fuel powered machines of the 19th and 20th centuries.

Ductless heat pumps are a prime example. In the past, many of us used gas furnaces and boilers to heat our homes and burned fuels that emitted copious amounts of CO2 in the process. Now, with the magical heat pump, we have access to efficient electric technologies for heating and cooling that can be powered entirely by renewable energy, and thus be carbon neutral.

Photo courtesy of The Heat Pump Store

Brief History and Growth of Ductless Heat Pumps

Ductless heat pumps (DHPs) were developed in Japan after World War 2. They were invented and perfected on an island that doesn’t have easy access to fossil fuels, and so they are the ideal heating/cooling system for our modern world given they don’t rely on combustion and are also incredibly efficient.

They condition 90% of Japanese homes, and worldwide their usage is growing like crazy, with an expected doubling of heat pump sales in the next five years. In the UK, sales are projected to increase 20 fold, and in the US, some areas are seeing sales growth north of 40% every year.

My family has used ductless heat pumps for our heating and cooling since 2012 when we bought our house. The gas furnace that came with our house was old, and we made the decision to replace it with new ductless heat pumps. (A major perk is that mounting the units on the wall saved valuable floor space in the garage, formerly dedicated to the gas furnace, which we converted into an apartment). We had seen them used in Europe and figured, even 9 years ago when the electrification movement was in its infancy, that heating with efficient electricity would allow us to reduce our carbon emissions with the solar panels we planned to install on our roof. 

Photo from Joe Wachunas

What is Ductless?

But what is a Ductless Heat Pump (a.k.a. mini-split)? Basically, it is a heating/cooling system that is different from a traditional furnace in several ways:

1. DHPs don’t have air ducts. Rather than forcing hot air through potentially leaky ducts, ductless systems place an indoor device on a wall and an outdoor unit (similar to a typical AC unit) which provides heating and cooling. This means no air escapes through leaky ducts, creating more efficient conditioning. 

Indoor unit. Photo Courtesy of The Heat Pump Store.

2. DHPs don’t burn things. Ductless heat pumps use electricity to provide heating and cooling. Electricity is rapidly moving towards being fully renewable and thus will soon produce zero emissions (the Biden administration set a goal of 2035 for example).

3. DHPs are like refrigerators in reverse. Instead of burning fuel, ductless heat pumps create heating and cooling through refrigeration. This means they capture heat from outside (even when it’s cold) and move it into your house, and vice versa for cooling. It’s pretty magical. The refrigerants used by DHPs can be potent greenhouse gases themselves, but luckily the world is moving quickly to using better, more environmentally friendly refrigerants (check out this website for a new type of refrigerant called R32).

Refrigerant lines from ductless heat pumps. Photo courtesy of The Heat Pump Store.

4. DHPs are incredibly efficient. This is because a) no air leaks through ducts b) they heat the room they are in (rather than the whole house), c) moving heat is vastly more efficient than creating it, and d) they use inverter systems (see below). As a result, they typically use three times less energy than old electric resistance heaters and six times less than gas. 

Demystifying a couple DHP terms 

Speaking of efficiency, let’s demystify a couple of terms associated with ductless heat pumps.

SEER — SEER is a number that measures how well a technology provides cooling. The higher the number, the more efficient the unit. Most new air conditioners have a SEER between 13 and 21, but ductless can often see a SEER over 30, which gives you an idea of how efficient they are. If you’re in a warm climate, SEER is especially important.

HSPF — HSPF stands for Heating Season Performance Factor and complements the SEER rating in that it measures how efficiently a heat pump heats a space. The minimum required HSPF rating in the US is 7.7. An 8.5 score is considered good, and over 10 is excellent. If you’re in a cooler climate, where the predominant energy use is for heating, HSPF is most important.

Example of SEER and HSPF ratings

I interviewed Tim Sharp, from the Heat Pump Store here in Oregon, which has installed thousands of ductless heat pumps over the last decade. He said that you’ll want your DHP to be most efficient in heating if you’re in a cold climate, and cooling if you’re in a warm climate. People in the northern US should probably focus on HSPF, while in the southern US, people should focus on SEER. Tim also said that investing in a DHP with higher scores will be more expensive up front, but the additional cost usually pays for itself over time through energy savings.

Ductless Heat Pumps in Cold weather

I also learned from Tim that DHPs were originally developed to provide only cooling (like a refrigerator), yet they have “constantly gotten better for heating purposes in almost every environment.” If you’re in a cold climate, you probably want to think about the “extended capacity” models, which are able to provide more heating. According to Tim, they don’t cost significantly more and offer more BTUs per hour output. Read more on how to use heat pumps in cold climates here

Ductless vs. Ducted

If you have existing ductwork in a space, you may consider a different approach when transitioning to heat pumps.  Not all heat pumps are ductless. You can get central heat pumps that work with a typical central AC system, and provide heating that blows that hot air through ducts. These central heat pumps are not much more expensive than central air conditioning, and many people think that swapping out every central AC system for a ducted heat pump is an important strategy to quickly get us off natural gas and reduce carbon emissions.

Ductless, on the other hand, is a no-brainer when you’re adding heating or cooling to a room without any ductwork. And DHPs also offer greater efficiency as well as economic and environmental advantages over a central ducted heating system. In addition to the efficiencies mentioned above, ductless heat pumps use inverter technology, which means they run at variable speeds. Tim from the Heat Pump Store compares this to starting your car at a red light. Inverters slowly rev the engine when starting and stopping, while typical central AC systems gun it and brake hard, meaning they are much less efficient. All DHPs use inverter technology, while virtually all conventional (ducted) heat pumps don’t, meaning DHPs are much more efficient. 

My family chose ductless heat pumps in our house, rather than a whole house heat pump, even though we had existing ductwork from our old gas furnace because of the increased efficiency. 

Photo courtesy of The Heat Pump Store

Humidity and air quality

Though ductless heat pumps help to dehumidify a room, it is not their primary purpose. In places with humidity problems, a separate dehumidifier may still be necessary. Similarly, DHPs have built in air filters, but can’t generally filter air to the extent that ducted systems do with high rated MERV filters. Tim from The Heat Pump Store said that air filtering is considered a separate system, from heating/cooling, in places where heat pumps are most prevalent, and people typically buy another device for air filtration. 

Brands

There are four leading brands of ductless heat pumps: Mitsubishi, Fujitsu, LG, and Daikin. Most of the top brands are Japanese, given they first developed the technology. This NY Times article has some solid reviews on each of these four brands.

Choosing a contractor

Finding a good installer is important. Many contractors may try to talk you out of electric heating and cooling (and into gas). Plus, you’ll want someone to help you correctly size a system for your needs. That means someone with lots of experience in ductless heat pump systems as well as a good reputation and reviews. Getting three bids is always a solid strategy. One pro tip is to look on a manufacturer’s page for contractors in your area that are certified to install their product.

Photo Courtesy of The Heat Pump Store

Cost and Aesthetics

As Tim told me in our interview, ductless heat pumps aren’t a panacea. Any technology has its downsides. As my wife points out, the indoor equipment that sits high on your wall takes up space and isn’t the most beautiful thing in the world. Ductless Heat Pumps can also be expensive. A system with a single indoor unit can run $3,000–$5,000, but if you’re putting multiple “heads” throughout your house, costs can quickly go over $10,000. 

Yet, for me, after 9 years of heating and cooling our house with ductless heat pumps, and with the climate emergency we find ourselves in, any drawbacks to ductless heat pumps are vastly outweighed by their immense benefits. Heat pumps are the heating and cooling technology for this era of climate change, and ductless heat pumps are the most efficient versions of this technology. They allow us to get off fossil fuels and efficiently heat and cool, in any climate, with clean electricity.

Learn more and do a deep dive into Ductless Heat Pumps with Tim from the Heat Pump Store in a recent webinar I hosted with Electrify Now, and let us know about your thoughts and experiences with ductless heat pumps in the comments below!

Photo courtesy of The Heat Pump Store

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Tesla now plans electric semi truck volume production in ‘late 2025’

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Tesla now plans electric semi truck volume production in 'late 2025'

Tesla has updated its timeline for Tesla Semi, its all-electric semi truck, with now a plan to reach volume production in “late 2025.”

The Tesla Semi program has seen some significant delays – even since it has officially entered production.

It was first unveiled in 2017, and it was supposed to come to market in 2020, but it only officially entered production in late 2022.

Despite entering production more than a year ago, the program has been very limited.

In October 2023, we learned that Tesla had only built about 70 Tesla Semi trucks and the company was using them internally and with one main customer: PepsiCo.

In January 2023, Tesla announced an expansion of Gigafactory Nevada to build the Tesla Semi in volume.

However, more than a year later, we haven’t heard much about the effort.

Yesterday, with the release of its Q1 2024 financial results, Tesla gave a rare update on the production plans for Tesla Semi.

Lars Moravy, Tesla’s Vice President of Vehicle Engineering, commented:

We’re finalizing the engineering of Semi to enable like a super cost-effective high-volume production with our learnings from our fleet and our pilot fleet and Pepsi fleet, which we are expanding this year marginally. In parallel, as we showed in the shareholders’ deck, we have started construction on the factory in Reno. Our first vehicles are planned for late 2025 with external customers starting in 2026.

The “shareholders’ deck” referenced by Moravy is this picture that Tesla released:

This shows some grading outside Gigafactory Nevada for a new construction project for Tesla Semi.

Electrek’s Take

Tesla Semi has to be Tesla’s longest vehicle program from inception to production yet – or volume production, at least.

But what I find most interesting is that Tesla unveiled the “production version” of the Tesla Semi in December 2022 and yet, it now says that it is using data from current pilot programs to change the Tesla Semi for volume production in late 2025.

Therefore, the “production version” unveiled two years ago was really more Tesla Semi 0.5.

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Volvo’s low-cost EX30 EV is already living up to its promise to deliver profitable growth

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Volvo's low-cost EX30 EV is already living up to its promise to deliver profitable growth

Despite its compact size, Volvo’s low-cost EX30 is already making a big impact. After launching just months ago, the new Volvo EX30 is already living up to its promise of delivering profitable growth.

Volvo’s low-cost EX30 is already making an impact

“We have had a strong start to the year, with our first quarter results laying a solid foundation for the year ahead,” Volvo CEO Jim Rowan said Wednesday.

Volvo set a new global sales record in the first quarter of 2024, fueled by growing demand for its fully electric vehicles.

After being one of the first legacy automakers to commit to an all-electric future, the results speak for themselves.

In the first quarter, Volvo had a 100% electrified (including PHEVs) sales share in 18 markets, up from 15 in Q4. Fully electric vehicles accounted for over 40% of sales share in 19 markets, up from 13 in Q4.

Volvo’s new fully electric small SUV, the EX30, contributed to the sales growth, according to Björn Annwall, Volvo Cars’ chief commercial officer & deputy CEO.

Volvo-EX30
Volvo CEO Jim Rowan during the EX30 launch (Source: Volvo Cars)

The EX30 helped push Volvo’s EV share of sales to a record 21% in Q1 2024. Volvo sold 14,500 EX30 models in the first three months of the year, topping the EC40 (6,000) while closing in on the EX40 (17,400).

Delivering profitable growth

Volvo set a new all-time sales record in March as it ramps up EX30 deliveries. Perhaps, more importantly, its new electric SUV is helping improve margins.

Volvo’s EV margins improved to 16%, up from 7% a year ago and 13% in Q4. The EX30 “has lived up to its promise of being a profitable growth driver” in just a few months since launching.

Volvo-low-cost-EX30
(Source: Volvo Cars)

In the first three months of 2024, “thousands of customers across Europe got behind the wheel of an EX30,” as Volvo prepares to expand deliveries in key markets like the US, China, Canada, and South Korea.

The EX30 will be sold in over 90 countries by the end of the year. With an expanding EV lineup, Volvo expects strong demand in 2024.

Volvo began production of its first electric minivan, the EM90, for China, with deliveries kicking off in March. In addition, Volvo plans to start building its three-row EX90 electric SUV in the first half of the year.

Volvo-low-cost-EX30
(Source: Volvo Cars)

Volvo’s electric vehicle lineup will include the EX30, EX40, EC40, EM90, and EX90. With a balanced portfolio of electrified models, the brand expects to navigate industry headwinds.

With three new electric models in key segments, Volvo expects demand to “remain robust” over the next few quarters. Volvo expects full-year sales growth of at least 15% in 2024.

Volvo believes revenues can reach SEK 550-600 billion ($50B to $55B) with an EBIT margin above 8% during 2026.

Volvo-low-cost-EX30
(Source: Volvo Cars)

In the first quarter, revenue fell 2% to SEK 93.9 billion ($8.6B). Volvo said revenue was weighed down by contract manufacturing. Meanwhile, operating profit (excluding JVs) rose 8% to SEK 6.8 billion ($625M).

Although overall operating income (including JVs) fell to SEK 4.7 billion ($435M) in Q1, Volvo said it was due to lower revenues at Polestar.

Electrek’s Take

As Electrek has said, Volvo’s early commitment to going all-electric continues to pay off. Not only did Volvo’s EV sales share reach 21% in Q1, but BEV margins are also improving.

With new electric models launching in key segments globally, Volvo expects strong demand in 2024. The automaker will be one to keep an eye on as the industry shifts to electric.

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Solar manufacturers petition U.S. to impose tariffs on imports from four Southeast Asian nations

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Solar manufacturers petition U.S. to impose tariffs on imports from four Southeast Asian nations

A coalition of U.S. solar manufacturers petitioned the federal government on Wednesday to impose tariffs on imports from four Southeast Asian nations, alleging that the countries are flooding the U.S. market with cheap products that threaten the domestic industry.

First Solar and six other manufacturers allege that companies in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam are dumping solar cells on the U.S. market at prices below the cost production or are benefiting from subsidies that leave domestic manufacturers unable to compete.

The other six parties to the petition are Convalt Energy, Meyer Burger, Mission Solar, Qcells, REC Silicon and Swift Solar.

The U.S. manufacturers have asked the International Trade Commission to issue a determination that the domestic solar industry has been harmed. They are requesting that the Commerce Department impose tariffs on solar cell imports from the four countries as a remedy.

First Solar shares rose more than 1% on the news.

The companies that would be targeted by the ITC and Commerce investigations are primarily headquartered in China. The U.S. manufacturers allege the Chinese government is providing subsidies through Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative to manufacturers in Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.

“This petition is not asking for special treatment from the US government,” Tim Brightbill, the lead attorney in the case, told reporters on a call Tuesday. “It is simply asking that our current trade laws be enforced.”

The Commerce Department found last August that Chinese producers are shipping their solar products through Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam and into the U.S. to avoid tariffs. President Joe Biden waived the imposition of tariffs on those products until June.

Brightbill told reporters that the vast majority of imports from the Southeast Asian nations would not be covered by tariffs when Biden’s waiver lifts in June because Chinese companies have moved manufacturing out of China and into the four countries.

Tariffs have divided the U.S. solar industry. The manufacturers’ petition to impose duties was met with opposition from the Solar Energy Industries Association, American Clean Power Association, Advanced Energy United, and the American Council on Renewable Energy.

The trade groups said they are “deeply concerned” that the petitions “will lead to further market volatility across the U.S. solar and storage industry and create uncertainty at a time when we need effective solutions that support U.S. solar manufacturers.”

They called on the Biden administration to consider alternative solutions to the manufacturers’ concerns.

Array Technologies, a manufacturer of solar tracking technology, said the petitions would cause “significant disruptions and challenges for the solar industry.”

“This case is bad news for clean energy jobs and American solar manufacturing,” Array CEO Kevin Hostetler said in a statement Wednesday. “More duties will only cause uncertainty and unnecessary project
delays, holding the U.S. back in meeting our clean energy deployment and manufacturing goals,” he said.

Solar panel prices plummeted nearly 50% globally in 2023 compared to the prior year as manufacturing capacity has tripled since 2021, according to a January report from the International Energy Agency. China’s market share of global supply chains is between 80% and 95%, according to the report.

The global supply glut led to a 45 gigawatt stockpile of solar modules in the U.S. at the end of 2023, nearly double forecast installations for 2024, according to the IEA.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told CNBC earlier this month that the Biden administration would not rule out imposing tariffs on subsidized clean energy exports from China.

The ITC and Commerce Department investigations will take about 12 months to conclude, Brightbill said. The soonest tariffs could be imposed is after the Commerce Department makes a preliminary determination, which will take about four to six months, he said.

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