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Originally published by Union of Concerned Scientists, The Equation.
By Julie McNamara, senior energy analyst with the Climate & Energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists

In April 2021, President Biden committed the United States to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels by 2030, in line with science-informed targets, in line with the collective hunt to keep global warming below 2 degrees C, in line with the fight, the fight, the global fight to beat back the worst of climate impacts we could see.

Ever since, the scramble has been on for our nation to advance the charge.

Because while President Biden’s commitment to robust climate action is critical to setting the forward course, words alone will not guarantee progress. Wish as we might, we will not whoopsie-pie our way into the Great Decarbonized Place.

We need actual action.

We need actual policy, actual progress, actual change, commensurate with the level of action these climate targets require. And they will require a lot, as new modeling makes clear:

Credit: Rhodium Group, Pathways to Paris (October 2021)

Precisely because the present emissions gap is so great, we cannot solely lean on the incredible progress enabled by leading states, localities, businesses, and individuals. To truly bend the curve, we need federal action, too.

And that is what makes the repeated and escalating broadsides to the climate integrity of the Build Back Better Act — foremost among them attacks on the Clean Electricity Performance Program (CEPP) — so infuriating.

Because no matter what words are spun, what justifications are launched, we will still need to make up the gap. So for every measure of weakening Congress allows, for every degree of ambition our lawmakers abandon, it will simply make the hard task harder, placing a heavier burden on all the other efforts we need to make.

The Build Back Better Act as a chance for change

There was never going to be one legislative package to resolve the path to 2030 and beyond — not least because action will be required across all facets of government, not just Congress. But the Build Back Better Act (also referred to as the budget reconciliation package) was set up to advance climate action — along with so much else — at a level of ambition not previously seen, finally showing Congress going beyond its long-favored realm of tinkering at the edges to enact climate policies that would actually drive path-shifting, curve-bending change.

This is the type of ambition we’ve been waiting for; this is the type of ambition we need.

And this is the type of ambition that fossil fuel interests cannot abide.

So here we are now, staring down significant and multifaceted attacks to the very heart of that ambition, primarily through threats to the CEPP — which would spur the power sector to swiftly transition to clean sources — but also from additional threats to broader programmatic budgets and ambitions.

While compromise is par for the course, legislators cannot capitulate when it comes to including policies that enable major change. So for every cut, for every slash, they must answer: If not this, then what? Because we need major change.

Meeting 2030 targets hinges on power sector transition

To get climate action on track, emissions reductions will need to be drawn from all parts of the economy, all the way from cars on the road to buildings and homes. The Build Back Better Act includes multiple major policies to advance these efforts.

But for the race to 2030 targets, foremost among all the rest is achieving swift, deep reductions from the nation’s electric power sector. This is the foundation upon which so much else of our climate progress will be built, because the end goal for much of what runs on fossil fuels in our economy today is for it to run on electricity tomorrow — and that electricity must be clean.

We need policy interventions to support that.

Because while the nation’s power sector has been undergoing a significant transition away from heavily polluting coal, progress has been uneven and far too much of what has come online to fill the gaps has been still-polluting gas. The country is still hovering at 60 percent fossil fuels in its electricity mix, and coal generation is projected to increasenot decrease, this year.

To address this, policies can do two things: boost the good, and limit the bad.

We need both. We need both because while the former is vital to clean energy deployment, it studiously avoids antagonizing the fossil fuel-fired status quo, and history makes clear that fossil fuel interests will not voluntarily undertake this mission on their own.

This is the reason that the threat of the CEPP falling out of the Build Back Better Act is so significant. It’s not that there aren’t multiple additional policies that will help to spur clean electricity deployment in the bill—there are, and they are incredible, from updated and broadened tax incentives to support for transitioning fossil fuel assets — it’s that the CEPP includes targets, and the CEPP includes sticks.

Without the CEPP, renewables would still be cheap, but they might not be evenly — or sufficiently — deployed, and too many utilities are at risk of sticking too tightly to coal and gas. And that could lead to a non-trivial erosion of the emissions reduction potential of the legislation, as estimated by multiple recent analyses.

So if the CEPP falls out, what comes next?

Within the Build Back Better Act, Congress can approximate the same power sector intent from other types of programs that similarly support both sides of this transition, i.e., toward renewables and away from polluting fossil fuels. It can also look elsewhere to achieve deeper cuts in other sectors.

But it would be a heavy lift. And all the more so if other major initiatives in the Build Back Better Act fall out, from critical environmental justice initiatives to the robust clean energy tax incentives to the methane fee, which the fossil fuel industry is doing everything in its power to unwind.

And otherwise? It’s on to other actors, and a heavier burden for each.

If not this, then what?

No matter what happens with the Build Back Better Act, to reach the 2030 climate targets set by President Biden, the country will need to bring every lever to bear, from states, localities, and businesses to the federal government, Congress and the administration both, and the country will need to look to every economic sector for gains, and the country will need to sustain these efforts throughout the years to come. Any less in one area means more required by the rest.

Recent modeling by Rhodium Group supports this finding, making clear that a forward path exists even if the CEPP falls out. But it would require even more progress by leading states, and rapid action by the Environmental Protection Agency and other federal agencies across multiple sectors, from standards limiting new, unmitigated gas-fired power plants to near-term coverage of refineries and other major emitters.

Much as fossil fuel interests might wish it, undermining one major tool for climate action doesn’t make the problem go away — it just forces taking other, often more difficult, ways.

We do not have time for craven capitulation to inaction. It’s time to make the leap.

Featured image courtesy of NASA. When launched, the TROPICS satellites will work together to provide near-hourly microwave observations of a storm’s precipitation, temperature, and humidity. The mission is expected to help scientists understand the factors driving tropical cyclone intensification and to improve forecasting models. Credits: NASA

 

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BYD says EVs have entered the ‘knockout round’ with next-gen tech rolling out

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Global EV leader BYD believes new energy vehicles, including EVs and PHEVs, have entered the “knockout round” with gas-powered cars. BYD plans to more than double its overseas sales this year, as it aims for one million in 2025.

Let the “liberation battle” begin

After declaring a “liberation battle” against gas-powered cars earlier this year, BYD, or Build Your Dreams, is putting pressure on overseas rivals.

During an investor meeting on Wednesday, BYD’s CEO, Wang Chaunfu, said it will launch its next-gen hybrid tech offering over 1,200 miles (2,000 km) range. We reported earlier this month that BYD looks to crush gas-powered car sales with its newest platform.

Most BYD vehicles are based on its e-Platform 3.0, an advanced 8-in-1 electric powertrain with integrated Blade batteries.

By building nearly all vehicle components, including batteries, in-house, BYD has a major advantage over rivals. BYD can offer low-cost EVs, like the new Seagull, starting under $10,000 (69,800 yuan) and still make a profit.

Its next-gen DM-i system will enable an even more range at a lower cost. According to a new Yicai report (translated), Chaunfu said BYD will launch its next-gen DM-i platform in May.

BYD-knockout-round
BYD Seagull (Dolphin Mini) testing (Source: BYD)

BYD believes EVs, PHEVs entered the “knockout round”

Chaunfu added that he believes EVs and PHEVs have “entered the knockout round” and that the next two years will be critical for automakers to scale, reduce costs, and introduce new tech.

As new electric cars roll out in China, BYD sees joint venture brands (overseas automakers) market share falling from 40% to 10%. The 30% offers room for Chinese brands to grow.

BYD-new-EV-platform
BYD Dolphin EV Honor Edition (Source: BYD)

BYD is using an “overseas + localization” strategy to expand the brand. For example, BYD is building a plant in Hungary that will “be Europe, for Europe.” BYD’s European leader said the plant will “be closer to customers, offering faster deliveries, and people will trust us more.”

Chaunfu said BYD aims to sell 500,000 vehicles overseas this year, more than double the 240,000 handed over last year. By 2025, BYD sees overseas sales reaching 1 million.

BYD-Atto-3-Japan

BYD’s first vehicle transport ship, the BYD Explorer No. 1, landed in Germany last month as the automaker expands its overseas footprint.

Meanwhile, after launching in Japan last year, BYD already accounted for 20% of Japan’s EV imports in January, a market dominated by Toyota.

The automaker launched a “liberation battle” with drastic price cuts and new lower-priced models earlier this year.

BYD says its main competition is gas-powered vehicles and joint venture brands. Several of its most popular EVs, including the Dolphin and Seagull, were updated with lower prices. Its cheapest EV, the Seagull, starts at just $9,700.

Electrek’s Take

BYD has already sent shockwaves throughout the industry with the new Seagull EV starting under $10,000.

Ford’s CEO Jim Farley called the Seagull “pretty damn good,” as he warned rivals. Farley said at the Wolfe Research Conference last month that if automakers fail to keep up with the Chinese, like BYD, “20% to 30% of your revenue is at risk.” In response, Ford is shifting from larger to smaller, more affordable EVs.

How will automakers react to a new platform that will cut costs even further? With new tech and models rolling out, BYD expects to steal even more market share from gas vehicles over the next few years.

Although many pit BYD and Tesla against each other because they are the leading EV makers, BYD sees Tesla as a respected industry partner. Its main target is gas-powered vehicles.

BYD is best known for its affordable EVs, such as the Dolphin, Atto 3, and Seagull, but it’s expanding into new segments, including mid-size SUVs and luxury models.

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Tesla (TSLA) delivery estimates are all over the place

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Tesla (TSLA) delivery estimates are all over the place

Tesla (TSLA) is about to finish its quarter, and it is a confusing one for Wall Street. Delivery estimates are all over the place.

We reported earlier this month on Tesla analysts falling over themselves to downgrade their delivery estimates for the quarter.

Tesla has been growing deliveries at a roughly 50% rate per year until last year, when it started to slow down. Unlike other companies, Tesla doesn’t give clear guidelines, and therefore, analysts are left to try to figure out themselves with the available data.

Over the last few weeks, there’s one thing that analysts do agree on when it comes to Tesla: deliveries are going down.

In comparison, Tesla had record deliveries of 484,507 vehicles last quarter for a 20% year-over-year growth rate, and it delivered 422,875 in Q1 2023.

For Q1 2024, delivery estimates on Wall Street have been consistently reduced over the last few weeks.

Yesterday, Wedbush was the latest firm to update its estimate to 425,000 deliveries – down from 475,000. But the numbers are all over the place. Electrek has found estimates between 420,000 and 480,000 deliveries during the quarter.

Troy Teslike, one of the analysts with the most data-driven estimates, has been consistently downgrading his estimates as more data has been coming in. He is now down to an estimate of 420,000 deliveries:

The overall Wall Street consensus has come down quite a bit since this report, and it is now closer to 458,500 deliveries. However, as you can see, some suspect that it could be way lower.

Tesla is expected to release its Q1 2024 delivery and production numbers early next week.

Electrek’s Take

I think anything below 450,000 would be pretty bad for Tesla, but 420,000 would be awful. It would not only be way down from last quarter but even down year-over-year after an entire year of Tesla adding production capacity.

It’s also Cybertruck’s first full quarter of deliveries, but we shouldn’t expect it to contribute significantly.

420,000 would likely mean Tesla inventory growing, which would be difficult for Tesla’s financial results at the end of next month.

Now, Tesla does have a few excuses, especially the arson attack on Gigafactory Berlin, but at this point, I think it’s clear that demand is the problem.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla ends up using the excuse of Elon’s request to perform FSD Beta test drives before each delivery, which is undoubtedly going to increase the delivery workload at the end of the quarter.

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Ford drastically cuts workforce at F-150 Lightning EV plant amid ‘much slower’ demand

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Ford drastically cuts workforce at F-150 Lightning EV plant amid 'much slower' demand

Starting April 1, one-third of the workforce will remain on-site at Ford’s Rouge EV plant in Michigan. Ford is drastically cutting its workforce at the facility where the F-150 Lightning is built, with demand “much slower” than expected.

Ford cutting F-150 Lightning workforce

Ford initially announced the reduction in January, citing “slower than expected” demand. Although Ford’s Lightning was the best-selling electric pickup last year, topping Rivian’s R1T, the EV truck faces new competition in a challenging market.

According to Ford spokeswoman Jessica Enoch, one-third of the 2,100 workers will remain at the plant starting April 1, 2024.

Enoch told The Detroit Free Press that 700 workers will be transferred to its Michigan Assembly plant to help build the Bronco and Ranger. Meanwhile, the remaining 700 can either take the $50,000 retirement package from the 2023 contract negotiations, or be reassigned to is Michigan Assembly plant.

Ford’s workforce reduction at the F-150 Lightning plant will not include job losses. Instead, workers are being reassigned or offered retirement.

In January, Spokesperson Martin Gunsberg told Electrek that the facility had been running with three crews working two shifts. Starting next week, it will go down to one crew working one shift.

Ford-cutting-Lightning
Ford F-150 Lightning production (Source: Ford)

“Their intentions were to build 180,000-plus units. Right now, we’re looking at 55,000 units they’re gonna build,” according to Todd Dunn, president of UAW Local 862.

The move comes after Ford said it would ramp up Lightning production just a year ago. However, the automaker has been rotating shifts at the facility since October.

Enoch said new vehicles have been held for quality review since early February. Shipments are expected to begin in April.

Ford introduced significant incentives on the 2023 F-150 Lightning to make room for new models. The 2023 Lightning Lariat, XLT, and Pro trims are eligible for a $7,500 retail credit.


2024 Ford F-150 Lightning trim
Price Range
(EPA-est miles)
Pro $54,995 240
XLT $64,995 240
Flash $73,495 320
Lariat $79,495 320
Platinum $84,995 300
Platinum Black $92,995 300
2024 Ford F-150 Lightning price and range by trim

Ford also made several adjustments to 2024MY Lightning prices. The base Pro trim, starts at $54,995 with 240 miles range. The lineup also gained a “Flash” trim in 2024 with a tech-focused interior, Ford’s Tow Tech package, and up to 320 miles range. It starts at $73,495.

Ford-affordable-EV-pickup
2024 Ford F-150 Flash (Source: Ford)

Electrek’s Take

The workforce reduction comes as Ford shifts plans from larger EVs to smaller, more affordable ones.

CEO Jim Farley revealed Ford was developing a low-cost EV platform. Led by Alan Clarke, a top engineer for Tesla’s Model Y and 3, Farley said it has “some of the best EV engineers in the world” developing the platform.

Ford’s CFO, John Lawler, reiterated these plans at the BofA Auto Summit Tuesday. Lawler said, “The game will not be fought and won with larger vehicles.” Smaller, more affordable ones will win in the long run.

The new EV platform will have multiple “top hats,” enabling new electric SUVs, trucks, sedans, and vans.

According to Bloomberg Businessweek, a smaller, cheaper electric pickup and SUV will be the first to launch on the platform. The first model is expected to be available in 2026, with starting prices around $25,000.

Lawler said the ultimate competition will be low-cost EVs from China, like BYD, and Tesla, which is planning a $25,000 EV of its own.

Ford’s CFO said Ford is matching capacity with demand. He added “demand is much slower than the industry expected.”

Meanwhile, Ford faces stiff competition in both the electric pickup and mid-size electric SUV market. New electric pickups like the Tesla Cybertruck and Chevy Silverado EV are rolling out while Rivian continues building R1T capacity.

Ford’s Mustang Mach-E is among the most popular EV segments, along with Tesla’s Model Y, the Hyundai IONIQ 5, the Volkswagen ID.4, and the Kia EV6. New electric SUVs like the Honda Prologue and Acura ZDX are joining the market.

Have you been eyeing Ford’s all-electric models? Now may be the perfect time to start shopping with significant savings. You can use our links below to find great deals on Ford’s EVs at a dealer near you.

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