On the plane from Warsaw to Berlin, Rishi Sunak was buoyant as he briefly chatted to the travelling pack. 

Having delivered his hat-trick of welfare reforms, the Rwanda bill and now the big lift in defence spending, he was a prime minister who clearly feels on the front foot after a torrid few months.

He looked like a man enjoying the job.

Politics live: Sunak warns Europe is at a ‘turning point’

Allies said Mr Sunak has spoken a lot about the spending decision with his current Foreign Secretary Lord David Cameron, who has “form” in prioritising these decisions, having committed to defence funding back in 2010 when he was prime minister in the face of competing spending demands.

“The PM’s thought about this a lot, which is why it’s so detailed today,” said one government source.

The big decision he announced in this election year to increase defence spending to 2.5% by 2030 was a choice.

He could have committed funding to schools, the NHS or local government. But, for this prime minister, it was the right choice.

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It might not be the most salient issue for voters at home, but in his speech today, he left his audience in little doubt about the risks we are facing with the rise of authoritarian regimes, such as China, Russia and Iran, working together to undermine our democracies and way of life.

But equally, Mr Sunak made this commitment knowing all too well that it may not be him that has to deliver it.

And while the sum is really big – £75bn of spending over the next six years – for this year the only commitment will be £500m for Ukraine, with the remainder of the funding coming in the next parliament.

Read more:
Sunak: World more volatile and dangerous than at any time since Cold War

On the assumed baseline, the government had already allocated the additional funding for 2.3% defence spending annually in the next parliament.

Increasing that to 2.5% by 2028-29 will, in cash terms, require £4.5bn of funding, which the government says will be paid for through £1.6bn from the annual research and development budget and £2.9bn from 70,000 cuts to civil servant jobs, taking the workforce back to pre-pandemic levels.

It is a clear political trap for Sir Keir Starmer, who spent much of his early years as Labour leader trying to undo the damage done by his predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn – who did not support NATO.

Starmer trap

Sir Keir has sought to re-establish Labour’s security credentials in recent years, most notably in his stance on the Israel-Hamas conflict, in which he has made sure he sticks to the US position and stands with the government on matters of national security.

So this is a big test.

Sir Keir said recently that he wanted to commit to the 2.5% of “when resources allow”, giving a future Labour government some wriggle room as it contemplates how to allocate scarce public resource.

Because, as the polls stand, Mr Sunak won’t be the prime minister having to deliver on defence-spending pledges, and already Conservative politicians are challenging Labour to commit to their plans, knowing all too well that it reduces the party’s manoeuvrability in government should it win the general election.

Hard call

And this is a hard call for the Labour leader, who has been desperate to present himself as a politician who also puts the security of the nation above all else.

In Poland, Mr Sunak evoked Winston Churchill, saying: “We did not choose this moment, but it is for us to meet it.”

He also said that to lead was to make choices, and his choice was to protect his citizens above all else.

How can Starmer refuse to meet the commitment?

Many Conservative councillors face certain defeat on 2 May. The party will lose control of councils at the same time. The scale of this setback, so close to the general election, is the main consideration.

The national polls paint a gloomy picture; public confidence in the government is low, only a quarter of voters intend to vote Conservative. The Opposition is riding high, some commentators reckon Labour is on course for a large Commons majority.

Recent parliamentary by-elections largely confirm this, with record swings against the Conservatives and Labour performing strongly.

The one sliver of hope for Rishi Sunak’s party might be that national polls exaggerate support for Reform and public distaste for the Conservatives.

At stake are more than 2,600 seats across 107 English councils. Voters in London are choosing both the Assembly and Mayor, where Sadiq Khan is pursuing and probably securing an unprecedented third term.

Mayoral voting here, and for ten other so-called “super mayors”, including West Midlands and Greater Manchester, is now by “first past the post” rather than the Supplementary Vote.

The same reform applies to the selection of 37 Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs). It is their re-election which guarantees electors across England and Wales have a vote this time.

Most of the contests next week relate to the 2021 elections.

Then, the Conservatives were riding high, Brexit was done and a successful COVID vaccine rolled-out.

An estimate of the national equivalent vote (NEV) based on those results, put Boris Johnson’s party on 40%, its highest rating since 2008.

Labour was ten points back and instead of gaining council seats from the governing party, usual at this stage of the parliamentary cycle, it was losing them.

Conservative mayors were re-elected in West Midlands and Tees Valley and the party won 30 PCC elections.

Fast forward three years, via Mr Johnson’s fall from grace, Liz Truss’s blink of an eye premiership and Mr Sunak’s unopposed elevation, we find the Conservatives in freefall. Sky News’ poll tracker currently puts them on 23.5%.

That’s a drop of over sixteen percentage points from May 2021.

By contrast, Labour is heading upwards, from 30% to 43.5% now.

This is a 15-point swing from Conservative to Labour. Conservative councillors sitting on 30% majorities or less over Labour rivals feel vulnerable. The Conservatives are only defending 18 councils, but if things are this bad then they could lose half of them.

But will the Conservatives and Labour perform like this on 2 May? Another measure of electoral support, gleaned from council by-elections, says not.

Over the past year there have been 159 council by-elections across England and Wales. These too have been mostly dire for the Conservatives. Asked to defend 46 vacancies, the party has lost 28 of them, a 61% failure rate.

However, half of these losses are to the Liberal Democrats. The Greens have made five gains, only one fewer than Labour’s total. Moreover, the Conservatives have gained five seats from Labour.

This hardly supports the view Labour are a shoo-in for the next general election.

Consider also changes in vote share in these contests. The average fall in the Conservative vote from 2021 is about 11 percentage points, putting them closer to a nationwide 30% and not 23% as the polls are suggesting.

Similarly, local voting data puts Labour in the range 36-40%, and not comfortably over that figure.

Which of these indicators, national polls or local voting, works best in explaining events on 2 May remains to be seen, but it does require setting relatively wide benchmarks for what constitutes good, indifferent or bad performances.

What are the Conservatives hoping for?

Should the Conservatives suffer minimal losses, say 100 council seats and control of super-marginal councils like Dorset, Gloucester, Redditch and Thurrock, it will claim that as a victory.

Should losses rise to 250 seats, council control is lost in Harlow, North East Lincolnshire and a mayoral incumbent is defeated, the Conservatives might have taken a step backwards, but the damage inflicted is not as great as many were expecting.

Losses of around 500 seats, about half the seats it is defending and possibly half of its 18 councils too, will destabilise the party.

Most likely, Andy Street loses in West Midlands and possibly Ben Houchen in Tees Valley also. A sizeable chunk of the country will see Conservative PCCs replaced by Labour ones.

Inevitable comparisons with crushing local election defeats in the run-up to the 1997 general election defeat will convince some of its backbenchers to demand yet another change of leader.

But, it’s not plain sailing for Labour.

The party has faced an exodus of about a hundred councillors, mostly regarding events in the Middle East, but some against Sir Keir Starmer’s move towards the centre ground.

Inevitably, Labour’s performance in key areas will be assessed in light of its task in winning power at Westminster. It needs to win in Dudley, one of only three metropolitan boroughs still in Conservative hands.

Last year the two parties tied in votes and seats, and results this time will reveal if Labour is on track.

The Conservatives are running hard in the inaugural battle for East Midlands mayor. They have selected Ben Bradley, MP for Mansfield, one of eight former Labour seats in the region captured in 2017 or 2019.

The North West offers challenges. George Galloway’s victory in the Rochdale by-election sees his Workers’ Party now contesting for votes in Labour wards.

There is internal party strife in Burnley, now the most marginal Conservative seat in the country, with some Labour councillors preferring status as Independents. Labour’s councillors in Pendle last month resigned from the party and in some cases are standing against their former party at the local elections.

Like it or not, Sir Keir faces comparison with Sir Tony Blair, electorally the most successful Labour leader; someone who took on and beat the Conservatives across swathes of the midlands and southern England.

Labour has to perform in councils like Harlow, Nuneaton & Bedworth, Swindon and Redditch. For good measure, Labour this time could reach parts hitherto denied them.

It won in Worthing in 2022 and now it is poised to take control of neighbouring Adur council too.

Rushmoor, a district council covering Aldershot and Farnborough, has been Conservative controlled for much of its 51-year existence. Labour gains this time could oust the Conservatives and even take power itself for the first time.

What are Labour’s benchmarks for success?

About 350 seat gains for Labour consolidates its position as the largest party of local government, but if it wants favourable comparisons with the Blair-era it should aim higher. Fewer gains, say around 200 seats, suggests the national polls are over-estimating its lead over the Conservatives.

If the gains are lower still then internal pressures will mount and betting on a Labour majority will reflect that, despite the party doubtless gaining another victory at the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election.

But Labour can ill-afford unfavourable comparisons of its performance against those of the Liberal Democrats and even the Greens.

What about the Lib Dems?

The Liberal Democrats could become major players after the next general election if Labour falls short of a Commons’ majority. Sir Ed Davey’s party should secure control of Wokingham and perhaps Dorset.

Seat gains of about 150 and upwards will demonstrate a real threat to the Conservatives.

And the Greens?

Last year the Greens secured their first council, Mid Suffolk, and are advancing in councils like Worcester, but a real boost may lie in Bristol.

The whole council is up for re-election with the Labour-owned city mayoralty now abandoned. Greens are the largest party and need gains from Labour and the Conservatives to nudge towards an overall majority.

Labour is targeting Conservative seats and is hopeful it can become the largest party.

This is only one of 107 councils, but the bragging rights should Labour or Green secure a majority are immense.

Everyone in England and Wales will have some sort of vote to cast on 2 May, with elections for local councillors, mayors, police and crime commissioners – and even one MP – taking place.

See what’s happening in your area with our postcode lookup:

Council elections

There are more than 2,600 council seats up for grabs in 107 council elections.

More than half of the elections are in district councils – which look after services such as bin collections, parks and planning – leaving county councils to fulfil the remaining responsibilities including road maintenance and schools.

There are seats up in 31 metropolitan boroughs. They look after a similar range of services to district councils in metropolitan counties, such as Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield in the metropolitan counties of Greater Manchester, West Yorkshire and South Yorkshire.

There are also elections in 18 unitary authorities, for example Dorset and Bristol. Unitaries cover all council services that district and county councils do together.

Here’s where the council elections are and who’s defending what. Click on the drop-down to see where the different types of each council are:

Labour and the Conservatives are defending a similar amount of council seats this time around – 985 Tory seats to Labour’s 965. But Labour are defending council control in more areas – 45 versus just 18 Conservative-held areas.

What happened last time?

The last time these seats were voted for in 2021 – after a delay of a year due to COVID – there were 248 Conservative gains and 264 Labour losses. The Greens added 47 councillors while the Lib Dems and Others/Independents lost a handful each.

There were also gains for the SNP in Scotland and Labour in Wales in devolved parliament elections that aren’t up for grabs this year, suggesting that the parties managing their nations’ COVID response were rewarded at the polls.

The Conservatives also won a by-election in Hartlepool, which had been held by Labour since 1974, on the same day.

It was just the third time since the Second World War that a governing party had gained a seat in a by-election and the 16-point swing was the largest a governing party has ever secured.

That was Sir Keir Starmer’s first by-election as Labour leader. Since then the party have made seven gains at by-elections and risen to a 20-point lead in the polls.

So Labour will be hoping to translate that change in popularity to electoral success and regain a few of those councils they lost

It would consolidate on their council election gains from last year that made them the biggest party of local government for the first time in more than 20 years.

Mayoral elections

Voters in England will also choose 10 metro mayors next month, including in the East Midlands, North East and York and North Yorkshire for the first time.

There will be a mayoral election in London, currently held by Labour with Sadiq Khan, where voters will also have a chance to select 25 London Assembly members representing 14 constituencies.

In terms of mayors, the Conservatives currently hold Tees Valley and the West Midlands, through Ben Houchen and Andy Street respectively. Labour hold South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire, Greater Manchester and the Liverpool City Region.

The 10 mayors will represent almost half of the population of England.

It will be the first time since the introduction of these mayors in 2017 (London has had a mayor since 2000) that the voting system has changed to First Past the Post – the same system used for most other elections in the UK.

Previously there was a system that allowed second preference votes which would be reallocated to the two leading candidates after a first round of counting.

There is also a directly elected local mayor in Salford council.

What does this all mean for Rishi Sunak?

Sam Coates

Deputy political editor

@SamCoatesSky

Anticipating the political reaction to the 2 May elections is art not science.

Unseating Tory Ben Houchen would take a bigger swing than national polls – but not that much bigger.

Yet because of the current expectations of MPs and the various party HQs, the fall of the Tees Valley mayor would be a seismic symbolic shock to the political system.

No 10 is desperate put a Houchen re-election at the centre of a fightback narrative after 2 May, to shore up the PM’s position despite the wipeout-esque polls and fears of a vote of no confidence. But will it be enough?

The patchwork of results does not help the Tories – and nor does Sky’s Michael Thrasher annual benchmarking.

The Sky election analyst has said 500 losses would put the Tories on a par with the disaster they saw last year.

Coupled with losing Andy Street in the West Midlands and the Blackpool South by-election, may not be psephologically coherent on behalf of MPs – but would trigger unrest. Losing Houchen would trigger panic.

If 52 letters of no confidence are then submitted to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 committee, Sunak would be subject to a vote – which he would probably win.

But on the back of that victory, he could call an earlier election to put his vision to the public sooner rather than later, fearing greater unrest because of the delay.

What happens to the PM after 2 May as a consequence of these results is the biggest question at the heart of this election.

Blackpool South by-election

Voters in Blackpool South don’t have any council elections this year, but there is the matter of a new MP to select.

Conservative Scott Benton resigned from parliament after undercover journalists posing as gambling industry investors filmed him offering to lobby ministers in exchange for money.

That triggered a recall petition which he lost, and so was forced to resign as an MP.

The seat had been in Labour hands since 1997, but was won by Benton in 2019 with a swing of 9.3 percentage points for a majority of 11.3%.

A resurgent Labour has achieved swings high enough to overturn that majority eleven times since 2021.

Police and crime commissioner elections

Everyone in Wales gets to vote for a new PCC on 2 May as there are votes for all four of the Welsh police force areas – North Wales, South Wales, Gwent and Dyfed-Powys.

There are also PCC elections almost everywhere in England. In London, Greater Manchester, and North, West and South Yorkshire, the mayor takes responsibility for policing. There are direct elections in 34 other police force areas.

PCCs are elected to hold chief constables to account, representing the communities they serve.

They are responsible for “the totality of policing” in an area, and aim to cut crime and deliver an efficient police service.

They don’t have a role in the day-to day running of the police, but can appoint and dismiss the chief constable, set the force budget and objectives, and bring together community safety and criminal justice partners to make sure local priorities are joined up.

The Conservatives have historically performed well at PCC elections, winning 30 of 35 in England last time out.

Turnout averaged at 33.2%, but was higher in Wales than England – this may have been because Welsh people were voting for the Senedd at the same time while not all English people had concurrent local council elections.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.