UK economy to fare worse than any other country in developed world this year, IMF forecasts
Britain’s economic reputation has been dealt a further blow after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast that this year the UK economy will fare worse than any other country in the developed world – including Russia.
In the latest update of its economic forecasts, the IMF said that it expected the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) to contract by 0.6% in 2023.
To add further humiliation for the chancellor and prime minister, even as Britain’s outlook was downgraded, most other countries around the world saw their forecasts upgraded.
But the Fund said that while the broader global economy was doing better than expected, with inflation having peaked and investment beginning to turn around, the UK economy would face a downgrade “reflecting tighter fiscal and monetary policies and financial conditions and still-high energy retail prices weighing on household budgets.”
The UK had previously been forecast to grow by 0.3% this year and 0.6% next year.
Now, said the Fund, it should expect -0.6% this year and 0.9% growth in 2024.
The comments are especially awkward for the Treasury, which has been criticised by some for its plans to raise taxes and reduce the budget deficit in coming years, resulting in an increase in costs for businesses and households, even as they continue to battle a cost of living crisis.
Up until recently, chancellor Jeremy Hunt had contextualised the UK’s relatively weak growth by pointing to the fact that the IMF’s recent forecasts projected that a third of countries were facing a recession.
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However, the Fund has now upgraded its growth projections for Italy and Germany, with the result that both will now grow more than the UK in 2023.
Indeed, Britain’s -0.6% GDP is the worst of any economy included in its latest forecast update, including Russia – which despite facing sanctions from most of the West is projected to grow by 0.3%.
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Why EY sees weaker 2023 outlook
Chancellor says UK ‘not immune’ from pressure
Mr Hunt said of the forecast: “The governor of the Bank of England recently said that any UK recession this year is likely to be shallower than previously predicted, however these figures confirm we are not immune to the pressures hitting nearly all advanced economies.
“Short-term challenges should not obscure our long-term prospects – the UK outperformed many forecasts last year, and if we stick to our plan to halve inflation, the UK is still predicted to grow faster than Germany and Japan over the coming years.”
The IMF said it now expected the global economy to expand by 2.9% in 2023.
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UK ‘could be in for first quarter contraction’
Although this is down from the 3.4% in 2022, it is nonetheless 0.2 percentage points faster than the Fund previously forecast in October.
It said: “Adverse risks have moderated since the October 2022 [World Economic Outlook].
“On the upside, a stronger boost from pent-up demand in numerous economies or a faster fall in inflation are plausible.
“On the downside, severe health outcomes in China could hold back the recovery, Russia’s war in Ukraine could escalate, and tighter global financing conditions could worsen debt distress.”
After China’s decision to open up its economy and ditch its zero-COVID policy, the Fund upgraded its GDP projection from 4.4% to 5.2% this year.
It said the US would grow by 1.4%, rather than its previous projection of 1%.
Germany, which was previously forecast to shrink by 0.3%, is now slated to grow by 0.1%.
Business
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt insists UK’s economy has ‘turned corner’ – telling public to ‘stick to plan’ for ‘better times’
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said that “better times are ahead” but that the fundamentals of the UK economy are “very strong”.
Speaking to Sky News in Washington, Mr Hunt pointed to price rise data from today showing a drop in the rate of inflation as well as the latest jobs figures and IMF economic growth predictions.
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Mr Hunt said: “I think the economy, we are seeing, has turned the corner, people are beginning to feel that.”
“That will continue during the course of this year. But the fundamentals for the UK economy, yes, are very strong indeed,” he added.
The cost of living crisis, brought about by months of double-digit inflation last year, has been tough, Mr Hunt said.
But sticking to his economic plan, along with the Bank of England’s work to control interest rates, will bring about “better times”, he insisted – in a sign of the likely economic messaging from the Tories ahead of the coming general election.
Jeremy Hunt urged the public to ‘stick to the plan’
“If we stick to that plan we can see that we will have better times ahead,” he said.
He added: “We don’t pretend that it hasn’t been tough, it’s been very tough in the UK and in many other countries.
“We now have the biggest technology industry in Europe. That is a big positive for families up and down the country in the years ahead.”
A whiff of wishful thinking about Hunt’s declaration of economic ‘soft landing’
It’s not quite a Mission Accomplished moment – the equivalent of that day in 2003 when George W Bush stood on an aircraft carrier and prematurely declared the Iraq war was over.
But Jeremy Hunt’s declaration in our interview in Washington that he had achieved a “soft landing” in the economy certainly has a whiff of wishful thinking about it.
The chancellor was at pains to insist today that in fact the outlook is strikingly positive.
Of course, that confidence comes as he gears up for an election in which the economy is likely to be centre stage.
Yet the chancellor is not alone in clinging to optimism.
Here in Washington, most central bankers and finance ministers are quietly hoping that all the economic and military challenges facing them do not crystallise.
They, like Jeremy Hunt, would much rather keep on talking about soft landings.
Sanctions warning for Iran
When asked about sanctions on Iran, following its strikes on Israel last weekend, Mr Hunt said he will be pushing for more to be added in his meetings with leaders of the G7 group of nations and with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
“What I would say is this: The talk ten days ago was of the West drifting away from its support for Israel. But when Iran attacked Israel, Western support was rock solid.
“And if Iran takes action that destabilises the global economy through what it does in the Middle East then they will face a concerted response from Western countries,” he said.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
‘I don’t want to say anything negative about Liz Truss’
Mr Hunt declined to speak ill of former prime minister Liz Truss when asked if she was harming the Conservative Party.
“I think Liz will be the first to accept that during her time as prime minister, mistakes were made,” he said of her 49-day tenure.
During her premiership government borrowing costs soared; the pound hit a 37-year low against the dollar – making imports more expensive; mortgage rates soared and the Bank of England made an unprecedented intervention to stop pension funds collapsing.
“She appointed me as chancellor. And so, you know, I don’t want to say anything negative about Liz Truss,” Mr Hunt said.
The government has agreed to have an independent IT expert review of a Post Office software system predating Horizon, amid claims dozens more sub-postmasters may have been wrongly convicted.
The Capture software was rolled out across branches in the 1990s, years before the notorious Horizon system was introduced.
Post Office minister Kevin Hollinrake has met with a former sub-postmaster and a lawyer representing 35 people who believe they were wrongly accused of stealing.
It was agreed between MPs and the Post Office minister that an independent IT expert would assess evidence claiming to “prove” Capture software was prone to glitches.
The Capture IT system
Steve Marston, 68, believes he was wrongly convicted of theft and false accounting after errors caused by Capture accounting software.
Auditors found shortfalls of £79,000 at his branch in Greater Manchester in 1998. He subsequently pleaded guilty to theft and false accounting.
A predecessor to Horizon, the Capture software was developed by the Post Office and rolled out from 1992.
‘Extremely happy’
Mr Marston, representing numerous others claiming to be victims, met with Post Office Minister Kevin Hollinrake in Central London.
Postal services minister Kevin Hollinrake
He tearfully told Sky News after the meeting that he was “overwhelmed” and “extremely happy” with the way the meeting went.
He presented a copy of the original Capture software, also shown to Sky News, which Mr Marston describes as “definitive proof” of wrongful convictions.
Campaigners discovered floppy disks with the software on them, dating back to the 90s.
Mr Marston says they show that errors in the system could generate false shortfalls in accounts, and believes Capture evidence was used in his prosecution.
Steve Marston
A ‘significant meeting’
Neil Hudgell, who is representing 35 former sub-postmasters who used Capture, said it was a “significant meeting” with the Post Office minister.
“What we are going to do now, with the consent of the government and agreement of the Department for Business and Trade,” he said, “is run that past an independent person to stand up what we say is the case.
“It is a very similar pattern of IT glitches that predate the Horizon system by a number of years.”
Former sub-postmasters say that it appears errors occurred when upgrades were made to the software in the 90s.
Other factors such as power cuts are also thought to be another possible reason for faults.
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‘I was forced to sell my family home’
Steve Lewis lost his job in 2000, after raising concerns about shortfalls and Capture software glitches.
“I’ve always been looked on as being the man who robbed the post office,” he said. “I lost my post office, the commercial buildings that I had moved my office to, and was forced to sell my family home.”
Mr Lewis claims he was warned “not to be a troublemaker” and told the issues were only happening to him.
It wasn’t until he watched the ITV drama Mr Bates Vs The Post Office that he “realised” similarities between Horizon victims and himself such as “unexplained losses”.
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Post Office hero Bates had seemingly been preparing for this day
Alan Bates (centre) speaking outside the High Court in 2019 and Toby Jones as Alan Bates in the ITV series
‘Mirror image of what Post Office did with Horizon’
Documents seen by Sky News also show that the Post Office knew Capture was prone to glitches which could cause accounting issues.
In January the government ordered the Post Office to investigate the claims related to Capture.
Labour MP Kevan Jones has taken up the cause and describes one case as being “a mirror image” of what “the Post Office did with Horizon victims”.
He continued: “Added to that, we’ve now got the original computer floppy disks where I think it proves that it does throw up shortfalls.
“I think that’s quite a compelling case for these cases to be looked at again and compensation awarded.”
‘We continue to investigate’
A Post Office spokesperson said: “We are in contact with Steve Marston and other past users of Capture and are grateful to them for all the information they have so far shared with us.
“We continue to actively investigate a number of lines of inquiry relating to Capture and throughout this we have regularly kept the Department for Business and Trade and Kevan Jones MP up to date with our findings.
“We have now shared a recommendation with the Department about what should happen next and hope to provide further information with past users of Capture as soon as we’re able to.”
A Department for Business and Trade spokesperson said: “As soon as these accusations came to light, we asked the Post Office to investigate the Capture system.
“We are now reviewing all the materials provided to us, including those from postmasters and Post Office, and we will set out next steps shortly.”
Business
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt insists UK’s economy has ‘turned corner’ – telling public to ‘stick to plan’ for ‘better times’
Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has said that “better times are ahead” but that the fundamentals of the UK economy are “very strong”.
Speaking to Sky News in Washington, Mr Hunt pointed to price rise data from today showing a drop in the rate of inflation as well as the latest jobs figures and IMF economic growth predictions.
Money latest:
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Mr Hunt said: “I think the economy, we are seeing, has turned the corner, people are beginning to feel that.”
“That will continue during the course of this year. But the fundamentals for the UK economy, yes, are very strong indeed,” he added.
The cost of living crisis, brought about by months of double-digit inflation last year, has been tough, Mr Hunt said.
But sticking to his economic plan, along with the Bank of England’s work to control interest rates, will bring about “better times”, he insisted – in a sign of the likely economic messaging from the Tories ahead of the coming general election.
Jeremy Hunt urged the public to ‘stick to the plan’
“If we stick to that plan we can see that we will have better times ahead,” he said.
He added: “We don’t pretend that it hasn’t been tough, it’s been very tough in the UK and in many other countries.
“We now have the biggest technology industry in Europe. That is a big positive for families up and down the country in the years ahead.”
Sanctions warning for Iran
When asked about sanctions on Iran, following its strikes on Israel last weekend, Mr Hunt said he will be pushing for more to be added in his meetings with leaders of the G7 group of nations and with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
“What I would say is this: The talk ten days ago was of the West drifting away from its support for Israel. But when Iran attacked Israel, Western support was rock solid.
“And if Iran takes action that destabilises the global economy through what it does in the Middle East then they will face a concerted response from Western countries,” he said.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
‘I don’t want to say anything negative about Liz Truss’
Mr Hunt declined to speak ill of former prime minister Liz Truss when asked if she was harming the Conservative Party.
“I think Liz will be the first to accept that during her time as prime minister, mistakes were made,” he said of her 49-day tenure.
During her premiership government borrowing costs soared; the pound hit a 37-year low against the dollar – making imports more expensive; mortgage rates soared and the Bank of England made an unprecedented intervention to stop pension funds collapsing.
“She appointed me as chancellor. And so, you know, I don’t want to say anything negative about Liz Truss,” Mr Hunt said.
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