Ukraine’s much-anticipated spring counteroffensive is now in its 10th week, with limited evidence of any significant breakthrough of the formidable Russian defences.
President Zelenskyy remains laser-focused on his objective of liberating all Ukrainian territory, but if Ukraine’s military fails to gain momentum in the coming weeks, what next?
In September last year, Ukrainian forces mounted a surprise counteroffensive in northeast Ukraine and liberated 4,600 square miles (12,000 sq km) of territory in a matter of days.
President Zelenskyy argued that he could repeat that initiative on a larger scale with Western support – all he needed was the weapons to do the job.
The West responded by providing an extensive list of advanced military capability, including battle tanks, missiles systems and ammunition.
However, this all took time to supply and to conduct the requisite training – time that Russia exploited to build extensive layered defensive systems.
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Ukraine started its spring offensive in early June, but despite some ferocious fighting the Russian fortifications still appear largely intact.
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3:14
Ukraine: How is the counteroffensive going?
Although casualty figures are always hard to verify, it is evident that this latest phase of the battle has proven highly attritional, and Ukraine’s offensive would expect to suffer significantly higher casualties, up to three times as many, as its enemy.
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Ammunition and weapons are being consumed at a huge rate, and there is no simple way (for either side) to replenish stocks swiftly.
And, notwithstanding the various press releases highlighting drone attacks on Moscow, Black Sea Fleet vessels, ammunition dumps and small communities liberated, these are a sideshow to the main event.
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The metrics of success for Ukraine are not shells fired, tanks destroyed, or enemy casualties achieved – these are simply the price of conflict, not the objective.
For President Zelenskyy the metric of success is simple – it is territory liberated.
Crucially, if Ukraine was able to push Russian forces back to the Crimean Peninsula, Zelenskyy has stated that this might create an opportunity for negotiation.
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2:28
Crimea: What happened on the bridge?
But, despite months of rising casualties, progress is slow – very slow.
Reports suggest that Ukraine has started to deploy its main reserve to assist the frontline fight – yet this reserve was intended to exploit any breakthrough to achieve momentum.
Behind the scenes, Western leaders are starting to review options.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenburg’s chief of staff suggested in a recent interview that Ukraine might need to cede territory to find a lasting peace.
Image: Ukrainian soldiers rest during military exercises in the Dnipro region
Although he later apologised, this comment likely reflected a growing concern among Western leaders that by continuing to support Ukraine they become complicit in perpetuating this brutal – yet static – conflict.
Ukraine’s determination to fight on is understandable – it is, after all, their war – but there is a developing discussion among Western leaders about the future, and what next?
The formal view appears to be that the West stands ready to support President Zelenskyy “whatever it takes”.
But weapons stockpiles are diminishing, and there are limited reserves left to continue supporting Ukraine, especially given conflicting domestic priorities.
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In hindsight, Ukraine probably could not have secured a better level of military, financial and economic support for this counteroffensive.
If that does not suffice, what will?
Notwithstanding the public show of NATO and Western unity in support of Ukraine, behind the scenes there is growing concern about how to draw this conflict to an end.
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1:06
Fierce fighting for Ukrainian village
If Ukraine’s military demonstrates that it has the potential to achieve Zelenskyy’s ambition of liberating occupied-Ukraine, it will likely galvanise Western commitment for the longer-term.
However, if Ukraine fails to gain momentum and continues to suffer huge casualties, its allies might feel obliged to explore options.
Such discussions will not be easy – Ukrainians alone understand the sacrifices, hardships and devastation that the Russian invasion has caused.
The UK has stopped sharing some intelligence with the US on suspected drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean following concerns over America’s strikes against the vessels.
The US has reported carrying out 14 strikes since September on boats near the Venezuelan coast.
The death toll from the US attacks in the Pacific and the Caribbean Sea has risen to more than 70, as the US escalates a military build-up in the Caribbean Sea.
Downing Street did not deny reporting by CNN that the UK is withholding intelligence from the US to avoid being complicit in US military strikes it believes may breach international law.
Britain, which controls several territories in the Caribbean where it bases intelligence assets, has long assisted the US in identifying vessels suspected of smuggling narcotics based on intelligence gathered in its overseas territories in the region.
Image: The USS Gravely destroyer arrives to dock for military exercises in Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago on 26 October (AP Photo/Robert Taylor)
That information helped the US Coast Guard locate the ships, seize the drugs and detain their crews, CNN cited sources as saying.
But since the Trump administration started carrying out strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats in early September, UK officials have become concerned their intelligence may be used to acquire targets for the attacks they believe may be illegal.
The intelligence-sharing pause began more than a month ago, CNN reported, quoting sources as saying Britain shares UN’s human rights chief Volker Turk’s assessment that the strikes amount to extrajudicial killing.
The reports could provide an awkward backdrop for a meeting between Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and her US counterpart Marco Rubio, expected on Wednesday at the G7 foreign ministerial summit in Canada.
A Number 10 spokesman did not deny the move when asked about the pause in intelligence sharing.
“We don’t comment on security or intelligence matters,” the official said in response to repeated questions.
“The US is our closest partner on defence, security and intelligence, but in line with a long-standing principle, I’m just not going to comment on intelligence matters.”
He added that “decisions on this are a matter for the US” and that “issues around whether or not anything is against international law is a matter for a competent international court, not for governments to determine”.
A Pentagon official told CNN the department “doesn’t talk about intelligence matters”.
On Monday, US secretary of war Pete Hegseth said on X that the previous day, “two lethal kinetic strikes were conducted on two vessels operated by Designated Terrorist Organizations”.
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He said: “These vessels were known by our intelligence to be associated with illicit narcotics smuggling, were carrying narcotics, and were transiting along a known narco-trafficking transit route in the Eastern Pacific.
“Both strikes were conducted in international waters and 3 male narco-terrorists were aboard each vessel. All 6 were killed. No U.S. forces were harmed.”
The United Nations human rights chief has described the US strikes on alleged drug dealers off the coast of South America as “unacceptable” and a violation of international human rights law.
Venezuela says they are illegal, amount to murder and are aggression against the sovereign South American nation.
Hundreds of Russian troops have pushed deeper into eastern Ukrainian cities ‘Mad Max-style’, video released by the Russians appears to show.
The troops were seen rolling through the fog on motorbikes, with some on the roofs of battered cars and vans, apparently into the city of Pokrovsk, as Russia said its forces had also pressed further into Kupiansk on Tuesday.
Ukraine has acknowledged the presence of the troops on its territory, although Reuters news agency says that when the video was shot is yet to be verified.
The fight to gain hold of Pokrovsk, a strategic point on a large road and rail artery in the Donetsk region, has been raging for well over a year, in Vladimir Putin’s push to gain control of the whole of Ukraine’s industrial east.
Image: Situation on the battlefield
The Donbas region comprises the neighbouring regions of Luhansk and Donetsk.
Ukraine’s military said around 300 Russian soldiers were now inside Pokrovsk and that Moscow had intensified efforts to get more troops in over the past few days – using dense fog for cover from drones.
It said Ukrainian forces were fighting Russian groups in the city.
Image: Russian soldiers enter Pokrovsk in this screen grab obtained from a social media video released on 10 November, 2025. Pic: Reuters
Moscow says taking Pokrovsk, dubbed “the gateway to Donetsk” by Russian media, would give it a platform to push north towards the two largest remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in the Donetsk region – Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Posting on X on Tuesday, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “The front: our main focus right now is on the Pokrovsk direction and the Zaporizhzhia region, where the Russians are increasing the number and scale of assaults.
“The situation there remains difficult, in part because of weather conditions that favor the attacks. But we continue to destroy the occupier, and I thank every one of our units, every warrior involved in defending Ukraine’s positions.”
Image: Destruction in Pokrovsk on 1 November. Pic: AP
Moscow and Kyiv have given different accounts of the battle for Pokrovsk. Moscow has for days said the city is surrounded, while Kyiv has denied Moscow controls the city and said on Monday that it was still able to supply neighbouring Myrnohrad.
Moscow has been threatening Pokrovsk for more than a year, attempting to surround it and threaten supply lines, rather than use the deadly frontal assaults it used to take the city of Bakhmut in 2023.
Russian war bloggers published a video on Tuesday showing what they said were Russian forces entering Pokrovsk along a road enveloped in fog, in what some Telegram users said looked like scenes from the Mad Max action film series, many of which are set in a post-apocalyptic landscape.
The date of the footage has not been independently verified.
Image: Satellite image shows armoured vehicles in the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, Donetsk region, on 3 November, 2025. Pic: Reuters
Russia said it had taken 256 buildings and that Moscow’s forces were actively advancing to the northwest and east of Pokrovsk as well as around the railway station.
Russia has executed a pincer movement around the city and was close to closing it, open-source battlefield maps from both sides show, though Kyiv has counter-attacked around the town of Dobropillia.
Ukraine’s top military commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said in an interview with the New York Post that Russia was concentrating some 150,000 troops in a push to capture Pokrovsk, with mechanised groups and marine brigades forming part of this drive.
Russia said its forces had taken full control of the eastern part of Kupiansk in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. A Russian commander, who gave his call sign as Hunter, said his troops had taken control of an oil depot on the eastern edge of Kupiansk.
In a video statement issued by Russia’s defence ministry, he said his forces had also taken control of a series of train stops along the railway to Kupiansk Vuzlovyi, a settlement around 6km (4 miles) south of the centre of Kupiansk itself.
Russia also said its troops had taken control of the settlement of Novouspenivske in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region.
Ukraine withdrew from some villages, including Novouspenivske, due to intense attacks involving more than 400 artillery strikes per day, RBC-Ukraine news agency cited a military spokesperson as saying.
Russia’s military says it now controls more than 19% of Ukraine, or some 116,000 square km (44,800 square miles), up from 18% nearly three years ago, according to Ukrainian maps tracking frontline changes.
Dozens of protesters have forced their way into the COP30 climate summit venue and clashed with security guards at the entrance.
Shouting angrily, the protesters demanded access to the UN compound where thousands of delegates from nations around the world are attending this year’s UN climate summit.
Some waved flags with slogans calling for land rights or carried signs, saying “our land is not for sale”.
An indigenous leader from the Tupinamba community near the lower reaches of the Tapajos River in Brazil told Reuters that they were upset about ongoing development in the forest.
“We can’t eat money,” said Gilmar, who uses only one name.
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Security guards pushed the protesters back and used tables to barricade the entrance.
A Reuters witness saw one security guard being rushed away in a wheelchair while clutching his stomach.
Another guard with a fresh cut above his eye told the news agency he had been hit in the head by a heavy drumstick thrown from the crowd. Security confiscated several batons.
The protesters dispersed shortly after the clash.
They had been in a group of hundreds who marched to the venue in the Amazon city of Belem.
Security guards later allowed delegates to exit the venue, having earlier asked them to move back inside until the area was clear.
COP30, which started on 10 November and ends on 21 November, comes at a precarious time for climate action.
The conference has been met with controversy over its location in the Brazilian city, on the outskirts of the Amazon rainforest.
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has highlighted Indigenous communities as key players in COP30 negotiations.
Dozens of Indigenous leaders arrived earlier this week by boat to take part in the talks and demand more say in how forests are managed.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.