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BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin to be $750,000 by 2026. Heres how and why. 9118 Total views 19 Total shares Listen to article 0:00 Markets News Join us on social networksLove him or hate him, when Arthur Hayes speaks, people listen.

Last week, as a guest on Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu, Hayes made the case for why he believes Bitcoin (BTC) price will hit $750,000 to $1 million by 2026.

Hayes said:I absolutely agree that there is going to be a major financial crisis, probably as bad or worse than the great depression, sometime near the end of the decade; before we get there, were gonna have, I think, the largest bull market in stocks, real estate, crypto, art, you name it, that weve ever seen since WW2.

Hayes cites the nearly predictable response of the United States government rushing in to intervene in every economic crisis with a bail-out as a key catalyst behind the structural problems in the U.S. economy.

He explained that this essentially creates an endless cycle of central bank printing, which leads to inflation and prevents the economy from going through natural market cycles of growth and correction. We all have collectively agreed that the government is there essentially to attempt to remove the business cycle. Like, there should never be bad things that happen to the economy, and if there are, we want the government to come in and destroy the free market. So, every time weve had a financial crisis over the past 80 years. What happens? The government rushes in, and they essentially destroy some part of the free market because they want to save the system.

Lets take a quick look at a few of the catalysts that Hayes believes will back Bitcoins move into six-figure territory. Mounting debt and out of control inflation.

According to Hayes, mounting government debt, a large amount that needs to be rolled over and diminishing productivity can only be addressed with money printing. While monetary expansion does lead to bull markets, the consequence tends to be high inflation. In the first instance, it creates a massive bull market in stocks, crypto, real estate, things that have a fixed supply, maybe theyre productive and have some earnings. But after that, were going to find out that, actually, the government cant save everything. It cant just print as much money as they think to try to save themselves by fixing the yield and price of their bonds, and were going to get a generational collapse.

Hayes expects a massive top at some point in 2026, followed by a great depression-like situation by the end of the decade.The U.S. government bankrupted the banking system

When asked about future contributors to inflation, Hayes zoned in on the $7.75 trillion in U.S. debt that must be rolled over by 2026 and the yield curve inversion in U.S. bonds.

Traditionally, China, Japan and other nations were the main buyers of U.S. debt, but this is not the case anymore a change that Hayes believes will exacerbate the situation in the states.

Why do I love these markets right now when yields are screaming higher?

Bank models have no concept of a bear steepener occurring. Take a look at the top right quadrant of historical interest rate regimes.

It’s basically empty. pic.twitter.com/P6MQnCU73N Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) October 4, 2023

According to Hayes, the U.S. banking system is functionally insolvent because the regulators made the rules in such a way that it was profitable from an accounting perspective, not an economic perspective, to essentially take in deposits and buy low-yielding Treasurys, and they could do it with almost infinite leverage and a few basis points differing in the change of the price, and everyone makes a lot of money and gets a big bonus. The banks collectively bought all these treasuries in 2021, and obviously, the price went down a lot since then, and thats why we have the regional banking crisis.

The largest concern expressed by Hayes is that at a structural level, the U.S. banking system cannot buy more debt because it cannot afford to because it is structurally insolvent. The Federal Reserve has committed to doing quantitative tightening, so its not accumulating more Treasurys.

Hayes explained that the market is digesting this, and the nuance here is that despite high rates on U.S. Treasurys, gold prices remain high and certain market participants who previously were treasury buyers are disinterested.

Currently, banks struggle to attract deposits, and the difficulty of matching their deposit rates to the current rates available in the market creates revenue and debt management stress at a level that could become critical to the function of the entire banking system. Like many cryptocurrency advocates, Hayes believes that its in times like this that a certain cohort of investors begins to look at different investment options, including Bitcoin. Hayes view on why Bitcoin is destined for $750,000

Despite what appears to be a generally dismal outlook on the global and U.S. economy, Hayes still expects Bitcoin price to outperform, placing a target estimate in the $750,000 to $1 million range by the end of 2026.

Hayes expects Bitcoin to continue:Chopping around $25,000 to $30,000 this year as we get to some sort of financial disturbance and people recognize that real rates are negative. If the economy is growing at a nominal rate of 10%, but Im only getting 5% or 6%, even though its high, people on the margin are going to start buying other stuff, crypto being one of those things.

Coming into 2024, Hayes said either a financial crisis will push rates closer to 0%, or the government will keep raising rates, but not as fast as governments spend money and people continue looking for better returns elsewhere.

The eventual approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the U.S., Europe and perhaps Hong Kong, plus the halving event, could push the price to a new all-time high at $70,000 in June or July of 2024. Regaining the all-time high by the end of 2024 is when the real fun starts and the real bull market starts, and Bitcoin enters the 750,0000 to $1 million on the upside.

When asked whether the estimated price level would stick, Hayes agreed that a 70% to 90% drawdown would occur in BTC price, just like it has after each bull market.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. # Bitcoin # Cryptocurrencies # Federal Reserve # Central Bank # Bitcoin Price # Hyperinflation # Markets # Stocks # Inflation # Interest Rates

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President Trump may walk away from Ukraine peace process, his eldest son says

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President Trump may walk away from Ukraine peace process, his eldest son says

Donald Trump’s eldest son has said his father may walk away from the Ukraine peace process, claiming the issue is not a priority for Americans, and signalling Europe needs a better plan.

In a wide-ranging discussion with Sky’s lead world news presenter Yalda Hakim at Doha Forum 2025, Donald Trump Jr addressed issues including the US administration’s recent diplomatic efforts around the world.

He was speaking in his capacity as a business leader, setting out his agenda for “America first” investments in defence technology and artificial intelligence (AI), drawing a direct line between global stability and economic prosperity.

Ukraine war latest – follow live updates

Donald Trump meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington earlier this year. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington earlier this year. Pic: Reuters

When asked directly if he believed the US president would walk away from Ukraine, he answered: “I think he may, what’s good about my father and what’s unique about my father is you don’t know what he’s going to do. He’s unpredictable.”

President Trump has led renewed efforts for a ceasefire deal with Russia in recent months.

More on Donald Trump Jr

Drawing a parallel with his father’s current “war” on drug cartels, Donald Trump Jr described gangs bringing illegal drugs into America as a “far greater clear and present danger to the US than anything [going on] in the Ukraine or Russia”.

While he said he did not believe Ukraine would be “abandoned”, he said: “The American public doesn’t have the appetite [for endless wars and further funding of Ukraine’s military efforts].”

Describing Ukraine as “a far more corrupt country than Russia”, he characterised Ukrainian President Zelenskyy as “one of the great marketeers of all time”, who he said had become “a borderline deity, especially to the left”.

He went on to describe President Trump’s approach as “common sense”.

China rivalry was the focus, but Musk got a mention


Yalda Hakim

Yalda Hakim

Lead world news presenter

@SkyYaldaHakim

In a country and at a conference which is friendly, even admiring of the Trump administration, Don Jr was in his element.

He’s here in his capacity as a business leader, promoting his venture, 1789 Capital which claims to be focused on “America First” investments.

But he wasn’t shy about discussing his father’s foreign policy achievements, boasting that Donald Trump had resolved seven or eight wars – conflicts that most ordinary Americans were unaware of.

His pitch is bullish and direct – the current US administration is projecting strength globally, stopping wars and creating investment opportunities which serves the American economy. It’s the MAGA mentality for the global audience.

It’s clear that the rivalry with China is their biggest focus, especially finding ways to combat their dominance over critical minerals.

“America can no longer just sit there and hope that China is going to be a good actor… I think the rest of the world understands that they want America to be at the forefront of all of that.”

When I asked him about recent efforts by President Trump to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, he responded forcefully. “We want peace, we want to stop the death.”

But he went on to say that Europe needed to shoulder the burden and currently they have no plan.

As he sat on the stage in Qatar, the country which has been at the centre of the ceasefire efforts for Gaza, he expressed hope that peace would prevail, but balanced expectations America would fund its re-construction. This would have to be a global effort.

“If there’s one thing my father is, it’s a builder… I think he can be the greatest construction manager in the history of the world, but no one in America wants to bear the entire responsibility of that.”

And, away from international diplomatic efforts, he was happy to announce a breakthrough closer to home.

The “bromance” with Elon Musk and President Trump is back on – calling the entrepreneur a “generational talent, a generational level of genius”.

‘Bromance’ back on

He also confirmed that Tesla billionaire Elon Musk was “100% back in the fold”, after previously appearing to fall out with the president.

Earlier this year, Donald Trump Jr’s investment company, 1789 Capital, heavily invested in some of Musk’s companies, including SpaceX.

Elon Musk and Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House in May. Pic: AP
Image:
Elon Musk and Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House in May. Pic: AP

Directly comparing President Trump with Musk, he said: “Imagine dealing with one Donald Trump – now I have to deal with two.

“They’re very similar that way, so it created some headaches… but the reality is they’re both very much aligned, they’re on message with what we want to do with our country. What we want to do with freedom of speech.”

He went on: “Elon did incredible things for Twitter, really allowed the democratisation of truth and freedom and free speech to occur. That’s something that is a true threat in America right now.”

He also praised Musk as “changing the face of free speech, science and technology”, adding, “we have to protect our geniuses”.

When asked whether Mr Trump would stand for a third term, he joked that he could be “just trolling” those on the left.

He went on, “He’s the most unpredictable person, probably in the history of politics. Which is why he’s able to get something done. We’ll see.”

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President Trump may walk away from Ukraine peace process, his eldest son says

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President Trump may walk away from Ukraine peace process, his eldest son says

Donald Trump’s eldest son has said his father may walk away from the Ukraine peace process, claiming the issue is not a priority for Americans, and signalling Europe needs a better plan.

In a wide-ranging discussion with Sky’s lead world news presenter Yalda Hakim at Doha Forum 2025, Donald Trump Jr addressed issues including the US administration’s recent diplomatic efforts around the world.

He was speaking in his capacity as a business leader, setting out his agenda for “America first” investments in defence technology and artificial intelligence (AI), drawing a direct line between global stability and economic prosperity.

Ukraine war latest – follow live updates

Donald Trump meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington earlier this year. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Washington earlier this year. Pic: Reuters

When asked directly if he believed the US president would walk away from Ukraine, he answered: “I think he may, what’s good about my father and what’s unique about my father is you don’t know what he’s going to do. He’s unpredictable.”

President Trump has led renewed efforts for a ceasefire deal with Russia in recent months.

More on Donald Trump Jr

Drawing a parallel with his father’s current “war” on drug cartels, Donald Trump Jr described gangs bringing illegal drugs into America as a “far greater clear and present danger to the US than anything [going on] in the Ukraine or Russia”.

While he said he did not believe Ukraine would be “abandoned”, he said: “The American public doesn’t have the appetite [for endless wars and further funding of Ukraine’s military efforts].”

Describing Ukraine as “a far more corrupt country than Russia”, he characterised Ukrainian President Zelenskyy as “one of the great marketeers of all time”, who he said had become “a borderline deity, especially to the left”.

He went on to describe President Trump’s approach as “common sense”.

China rivalry was the focus, but Musk got a mention


Yalda Hakim

Yalda Hakim

Lead world news presenter

@SkyYaldaHakim

In a country and at a conference which is friendly, even admiring of the Trump administration, Don Jr was in his element.

He’s here in his capacity as a business leader, promoting his venture, 1789 Capital which claims to be focused on “America First” investments.

But he wasn’t shy about discussing his father’s foreign policy achievements, boasting that Donald Trump had resolved seven or eight wars – conflicts that most ordinary Americans were unaware of.

His pitch is bullish and direct – the current US administration is projecting strength globally, stopping wars and creating investment opportunities which serves the American economy. It’s the MAGA mentality for the global audience.

It’s clear that the rivalry with China is their biggest focus, especially finding ways to combat their dominance over critical minerals.

“America can no longer just sit there and hope that China is going to be a good actor… I think the rest of the world understands that they want America to be at the forefront of all of that.”

When I asked him about recent efforts by President Trump to bring the war in Ukraine to an end, he responded forcefully. “We want peace, we want to stop the death.”

But he went on to say that Europe needed to shoulder the burden and currently they have no plan.

As he sat on the stage in Qatar, the country which has been at the centre of the ceasefire efforts for Gaza, he expressed hope that peace would prevail, but balanced expectations America would fund its re-construction. This would have to be a global effort.

“If there’s one thing my father is, it’s a builder… I think he can be the greatest construction manager in the history of the world, but no one in America wants to bear the entire responsibility of that.”

And, away from international diplomatic efforts, he was happy to announce a breakthrough closer to home.

The “bromance” with Elon Musk and President Trump is back on – calling the entrepreneur a “generational talent, a generational level of genius”.

‘Bromance’ back on

He also confirmed that Tesla billionaire Elon Musk was “100% back in the fold”, after previously appearing to fall out with the president.

Earlier this year, Donald Trump Jr’s investment company, 1789 Capital, heavily invested in some of Musk’s companies, including SpaceX.

Elon Musk and Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House in May. Pic: AP
Image:
Elon Musk and Donald Trump in the Oval Office at the White House in May. Pic: AP

Directly comparing President Trump with Musk, he said: “Imagine dealing with one Donald Trump – now I have to deal with two.

“They’re very similar that way, so it created some headaches… but the reality is they’re both very much aligned, they’re on message with what we want to do with our country. What we want to do with freedom of speech.”

He went on: “Elon did incredible things for Twitter, really allowed the democratisation of truth and freedom and free speech to occur. That’s something that is a true threat in America right now.”

He also praised Musk as “changing the face of free speech, science and technology”, adding, “we have to protect our geniuses”.

When asked whether Mr Trump would stand for a third term, he joked that he could be “just trolling” those on the left.

He went on, “He’s the most unpredictable person, probably in the history of politics. Which is why he’s able to get something done. We’ll see.”

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Technology

Married millennials, here comes the crypto divorce cliff

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Married millennials, here comes the crypto divorce cliff

Fizkes | Istock | Getty Images

Divorce always raises thorny questions of how to divide marital property. In most cases, the remedy is pretty straightforward, requiring a surgical split between the two parties’ assets — although you can’t do that with the family dog or aquarium. But if you thought deciding who gets the dog was complicated, here comes cryptocurrency.

With the crypto wealth accumulation phase still new within many households, and the recent sharp decline in digital assets including bitcoin and ether dinging the confidence of investors who had just seen record highs, the path forward is murky. But for many married Americans, the current price of crypto doesn’t even register as an issue. That’s because the assets are easily squirreled away from an unsuspecting spouse.

“In divorce cases, crypto is creating the same headaches we’ve long seen with offshore accounts, except now the assets can be moved instantly and invisibly,” said Mark Grabowski, professor of cyber law and digital ethics at Adelphi University and author of several books about cryptocurrencies. He added that the problem is that ownership isn’t determined by a name on an account — it’s determined by who holds the private keys.

“If one spouse controls the wallet, they effectively control the assets,” Grabowski said.

Lawyers now have to subpoena exchanges, trace transactions on the blockchain, and determine whether coins were purchased before or during the marriage.

“Without that transparency and given the lack of reporting standards, it’s easy for one spouse to hide or underreport holdings. Courts are still catching up,” Grabowski said.

In theory, though, a crypto divorce should work like any other. Renee Bauer, a divorce attorney who has dealt with crypto splits, says the biggest question couples fight about is simple on the surface: who gets the wallet?

“That question opens the door to a mess of complications that traditional property division never had to deal with,” Bauer said.

The first challenge is figuring out what actually exists.

“A retirement account comes with statements. A house has an address. Crypto may be sitting in an online exchange or in a hardware wallet that one spouse conveniently forgot to mention,” Bauer said.

Tracing it then becomes part detective work and part digital forensics. Once the digital asset is authenticated, hashing out custody comes next.

“Some spouses want to keep the digital wallet intact, especially if they are the one who managed it during the marriage, while others want a clean monetary split,” Bauer said.

Courts are still figuring out the best way to handle this.

“There is also the security piece. If one spouse hands over private keys, they are effectively turning over total control. If they refuse, the court has to decide how to enforce access,” Bauer said.

She recounts seeing one lawyer who didn’t know much about crypto try to give the other spouse credit for the value of the bitcoin in another asset, not recognizing it’s not so simple, nor fair.

“Many divorce lawyers are slow to catch up and don’t even ask for disclosure. In my state of Connecticut, there isn’t a spot for crypto specifically on the financial affidavits. And for some, that could mean missing a valuable asset if they aren’t looking for it,” Bauer said.

Crypto hunters, PIs of digital asset divorce era

One of the few companies that can help locate a missing asset is BlockSquared Forensics. Ryan Settles, founder and CEO of the Texas-based company, says that the need for his services has increased exponentially since he founded his company in 2023. BlockSquared is dedicated exclusively to the crypto aspects of family law and divorce.

If a spouse (generally women, Settles says) suspects their partner is hiding crypto, their attorney may call in BlockSquared, which does anything from simple asset verification to deep investigations, tracing crypto across continents and into the murky world of wallets and exchanges. Settles’ company will then present the spouse with a “storyboard” that traces and timestamps the movement of cryptocurrencies.

Investigating whether one spouse has crypto is becoming increasingly common, he says, “especially folks involved in high-net-worth divorces and individuals with high net worth.”

Ryan Settles, founder and CEO of the Texas-based company BlockSquared Forensics, which offers services from simple asset verifications to deep investigations, often for women going through divorces who were unaware of spouses’ crypto holdings.

Ryan Settles

Ferreting out crypto in a divorce is only going to become more common. Settles noted that millennials hold the highest amount of crypto, and over the next six months, this age group will be approaching peak divorce years, converging with increased crypto holdings.

Another aspect Settles looks at is tax liability for the spouse, making sure that gets addressed during the divorce.

“There are a significant number of tax issues that most people, even attorneys, are not even familiar with,” Settles says, adding that the number of taxable events and reporting requirements from even a single transaction can come as a surprise to even the most seasoned litigators.

“Most attorneys don’t understand it, don’t understand the terminology. There is a whole lot of trust without verification going on,” Settles said.

Many of his cases involve wives who were not only unaware of their husband’s crypto dabbling, but when the assets are finally split, can be socked with a massive tax bill from capital gains.

“Unlike a savings account, the value of crypto can swing wildly in a single day,” Bauer said. “Selling crypto to divide proceeds can trigger capital gains. Holding it can trigger new arguments when value changes,” Bauer added.

Relatively relaxed Internal Revenue Service reporting requirements for crypto have not helped, though they are set to get stricter starting with the 2025 tax year.

“There are so many pieces. There are a lot of attorneys doing nod and smile and pretend to understand,” Settles said.

But companies like his are usually brought in only when there is a good suspicion of a spouse hiding significant crypto assets, he said. With a retainer fee of $9,000 and investigations that can cost $50,000, Settles says his services often cost more than an attorney.

Hard questions about crypto property splits

Roman Beck, a professor at Bentley University, where he directs the Crypto Ledger Lab, says that because this is a relatively new area, it’s best to look at it as courts not dividing the digital wallet but instead the assets the wallet controls.

“The law treats crypto much less exotically than people think. The starting point is simple: for tax and most property-law purposes, cryptocurrency is treated as property, not as money,” Beck said.

In divorce, that means bitcoin, ether, stablecoins, and NFTs acquired during the marriage are usually part of the marital estate, just like a brokerage account or a second home, with how that property is split depending on the state.

“Courts don’t split wallets, they split value,” Beck said.

The real legal question is not “Who gets the wallet?” he said, but ‘How do we allocate the economic value the wallet represents, and who is trusted with technical custody afterward?”

This leaves courts and lawyers to do one of three things: split the holdings on-chain, sell and split fiat, or offset with other assets.

“From a technical point of view, a wallet is just a set of private keys, often spread across hardware devices, mobile apps, or even seed phrases on a piece of paper. You cannot safely ‘share’ a hardware wallet or a private key after divorce,” Beck said.

Another wrinkle in a crypto divorce is the volatility of the underlying asset, with price swings in the currency making it more difficult for couples to agree on timing of a split, both as a couple and for the digital assets. In the past two months alone, bitcoin fell from a high over $126,000 to the low $80,000s, a 35% decline, and saw its year-to-date gains wiped out, with plenty of wild daily swings.

If couples are thinking rationally and not emotionally, among the simplest solutions would be splitting the wallet on a chain to create two wallets for each of the divorced partners so they can continue holding their share of cryptos, or drawing up a legal agreement that gives shares of a wallet to each party.

“They would not have to sell immediately,” Beck said.

However, often one party is not familiar with holding a wallet and thus not comfortable with that solution.

Similar to a house jointly owned which a divorcing couple may not want to bring to the market at a bad time, a couple could also agree to turn over crypto holdings to trusted third party to act as agent on behalf of both and to sell the crypto once the market has improved — once a certain agreed upon minimum value has been reached.

But Beck added that while from an economic and technical point of view there is no barrier preventing a divorcing couple from keeping crypto assets using any of these methods to allocate a legal percentage to each partner and delay liquidation until market conditions improved, both parties need to agree, and “most just want to be done,” he said.

Blockchain ledger transparency and the courts

One positive it that despite crypto’s reputation as a haven of anonymity, other aspects of digital assets work well for divorce proceedings.

“Public blockchains like bitcoin and ethereum are transparent ledgers. Every transaction is recorded forever. In other words, on-ledger data analytics turns the blockchain into a very patient financial witness,” Beck said. “That leaves a perfect audit trail if you know how to read the chain. … The real frontier isn’t the law, it’s the forensics,” he added.

Crypto’s adoption by many Americans — surveys in recent years from Gallup and Pew Research estimate that 14% to 17% of U.S. adults have owned cryptocurrency — is forcing family law to become more data-driven.

“The combination of transparent ledgers and powerful analytics gives lawyers and judges better tools to reconstruct financial behavior than they ever had with cash. The policy question going forward is not whether we can trace, but how far courts will go in requiring that level of scrutiny in everyday divorces,” Beck said.

Still, that doesn’t mean people won’t keep trying to hide assets. Settles says that often within 20 minutes he’ll see movement on the ledgers.

“They’ll start scrambling their assets, moving things, hiding things, moving them to tumblers. It’s quite fascinating,” Settles said.

And traceable.

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