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A chimney from the Linden Cogeneration Plant is seen in Linden New Jersey April 22, 2022. 

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Natural gas producers are planning for a significant spike in demand over the next decade, as artificial intelligence drives a surge in electricity consumption that renewables may struggle to meet alone.

After a decade of flat power growth in the U.S., electricity demand is forecast to grow as much as 20% by 2030, according to a Wells Fargo analysis published in April. Power companies are moving to quickly secure energy as the rise of AI coincides with the expansion of domestic semiconductor and battery manufacturing as well as the electrification of the nation’s vehicle fleet.

AI data centers alone are expected to add about 323 terawatt hours of electricity demand in the U.S. by 2030, according to Wells Fargo. The forecast power demand from AI alone is seven times greater than New York City’s current annual electricity consumption of 48 terawatt hours. Goldman Sachs projects that data centers will represent 8% of total U.S. electricity consumption by the end of the decade.

The surge in power demand poses a challenge for Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta. The tech companies have committed to powering their data centers with renewables to slash carbon emissions. But solar and wind alone may be inadequate to meet the electricity load because they are dependent on variable weather, according to an April note from consulting firm Rystad Energy.

“Economic growth, electrification, accelerating data center expansion are driving the most significant demand growth in our company’s history and they show no signs of abating,”

Robert Blue

Dominion Energy, Chief Executive Officer

Surging electricity loads will require an energy source that can jump into the breach and meet spiking demand during conditions when renewables are not generating enough power, according to Rystad. The natural gas industry is betting gas will serve as the preferred choice.

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Natural gas prices year to date

“This type of need demonstrates that the emphasis on renewables as the only source of power is fatally flawed in terms of meeting the real demands of the market,” Richard Kinder, executive chairman of pipeline operator Kinder Morgan, told analysts during the company’s first-quarter earnings in April.

“The primary use of these data centers is big tech and I believe they’re beginning to recognize the role that natural gas and nuclear must play,” Kinder said during the call. Kinder Morgan is the largest natural gas pipeline operator in the U.S. with 40% market share.

Natural gas is expected to supply 60% of the power demand growth from AI and data centers, while renewables will provide the remaining 40%, according to Goldman Sachs’ report published in April.

Gas demand could increase by 10 billion cubic feet per day by 2030, according to Wells Fargo. This would represent a 28% increase over the 35 bcf/d that is currently consumed for electricity generation in the U.S, and a 10% increase over the nation’s total gas consumption of 100 bcf/d.

“That’s why people are getting more bullish on gas,” said Roger Read, an equity analyst and one of the authors of the Wells Fargo analysis, in an interview. “Those are some pretty high growth rates for a commodity.”

The demand forecasts, however, vary as analysts are just starting to piece together what data centers might mean for natural gas. Goldman expects a 3.3 bcf/d increase in gas demand, while Houston-based investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. sees a base case of 2.7 bcf/d and a high case of 8.5 bcf/d.

Powering the Southeast boom

Power companies will need energy that is reliable, affordable and can be deployed quickly to meet rising electricity demand, said Toby Rice, CEO of EQT Corp., the largest natural gas producer in the U.S.

“Speed to market matters,” Rice told CNBC’s “Money Movers” in late April. “This is going to be another differentiator for EQT and natural gas to take a very large amount of this market share.”

Natural gas market looks oversupplied right now, says EQT CEO Toby Rice

EQT is positioned to become a “key facilitator of the data center build-out” in the Southeast, Rice told analysts on the company’s earnings call in April.

The Southeast is the hottest data center market in the world with Northern Virginia in the thick of the boom, hosting more data centers than the next five largest markets in the U.S. combined. Some 70% of the world’s internet traffic passes through the region daily.

The power company Dominion Energy forecasts that demand from data centers in Northern Virginia will more than double from 3.3 gigawatts in 2023 to 7 gigawatts in 2030.

Further south, Georgia Power sees retail electricity sales growing 9% through 2028 with 80% of the demand coming from data centers, said Christopher Womack, CEO of Georgia Power’s parent Southern Company, during the utility’s fourt-quarter earnings call in February.

“Economic growth, electrification, accelerating data center expansion are driving the most significant demand growth in our company’s history and they show no signs of abating,” Dominion CEO Robert Blue said during the company’s March investor meeting.

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EQT shares over the past year.

The surging power demand in the Southeast lies at the doorstep of EQT’s asset base in the Appalachian Basin, Rice said during the earnings call. Coal plant retirements and data centers could result in 6 bcf/d of new natural gas demand in EQT’s backyard by 2030, the CEO said.

EQT recently purchased the owner of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, which connects prolific natural gas reserves that EQT is operating and developing in the Appalachian Basin to southern Virginia. EQT is the only producer that can access the growing data center market through the pipeline, said Jeremy Knop, the company’s chief financial officer.

“I think we are very uniquely positioned in that sense,” Knop said during the call. Rice said the Southeast will become an even more attractive gas market than the Gulf Coast later in the decade. EQT is planning to expand capacity on the Mountain Valley Pipeline from 2 bcf/d to 2.5 bcf/d. The pipeline is expected to become operational in June.

The level of electricity demand could help lift natural gas prices out of the doldrums.

Prices plunged as much more than 30% in the first quarter of 2024 on strong production, lower demand due to a mild winter and historic inventory levels in the U.S. By 2030, prices could average $3.50 per thousand cubic feet, a 46% increase over the 2024 average price of $2.39, according to Wells Fargo.

Grid reliability worries

Dominion laid out scenarios in its 2023 resource plan that would add anywhere from 0.9 to 9.3 gigawatts of new natural gas capacity over the next 25 years. The power company said gas turbines will be critical to fill gaps when production drops from renewable resources such as solar. The turbines would be dual use and able to take clean hydrogen at some point.

“We’re building a lot of renewables, which all of our customers are looking for, but we need to make sure that we can operate the system reliably,” Blue told analysts during Dominion’s earnings call Thursday.

Renewables will play a major role in meeting the demand but they face challenges that make gas look attractive through at least 2030, Read, the Wells Fargo analyst, told CNBC.

An all of the above strategy is the only thing that we see as the way to maintain the reliability and the affordability that our customers count on.”

Lynn Good

Duke Energy, Chief Executive Officer

Many of the renewables will be installed in areas that are not immediately adjacent to data centers, he said. It will take time to build power lines to transport resources to areas of high demand, the analyst said.

Another constraint on renewables right now is the currently available battery technology is not efficient enough to power data centers 24 hours a day, said Zack Van Everen, director of research at investment Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

Nuclear is a potential alternative to gas and has the advantage of providing carbon free energy, but new advanced technology that shortens typically long project timelines is likely a decade away from having a meaningful impact, according to Wells Fargo.

Robert Kinder, chief executive of pipeline operator Kinder Morgan, said significant amounts new nuclear capacity will not come online for the foreseeable future, and building power lines to connect distant renewables to the grid will take years. This means natural gas has to play an important role for years to come, Kinder said during the company’s earnings call in April.

“I think acceptance of this hypothesis will become even clearer as power demand increases over the coming months and years and it will be one more significant driver of growth in the demand for natural gas that will benefit all of us in the midstream sector,” Kinder said.

Environmental impact

Any expansion of natural gas in meeting U.S energy demand is likely to be met with opposition from environmental groups who want fossil fuels to be phased out as soon as possible.

Goldman Sachs forecast carbon emissions from data centers could more than double by 2030 to about 220 million tons, or 0.6% of global energy emissions, assuming natural gas provides the bulk of the power.

Virginia has mandated that all carbon-emitting plants be phased out by 2045. Dominion warned in its resource plan that the phase out date potentially raises system reliability and energy independence issues, with the company relying on purchasing capacity across state lines to meet demand.

Duke Energy CEO Lynn Good said natural gas “can be a difficult topic,” but the fossil fuel is responsible for 45% of the power company’s emissions reductions since 2005 as dirtier coal plants have been replaced. Good said electricity demand in North Carolina is growing at a pace not seen since the 1980s or 1990s.

“As we look at the next many years trying to find a way to expand a system to approach this growth, I think natural gas has a role to play,” Good said at the Columbia Global Energy Summit in New York City in April. The CEO said natural gas is needed as a “bridge fuel” until more advanced technology comes online.

“An all of the above strategy is the only thing that we see as the way to maintain the reliability and the affordability that our customers count on,” Good said.

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Toyota invests a fresh $500M in Joby Aviation to support eVTOL air taxi certification, production

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Toyota invests a fresh 0M in Joby Aviation to support eVTOL air taxi certification, production

eVTOL air taxi developer Joby Aviation has secured a fresh round of funding from previous investor Toyota Motor Corporation, totaling $500 million. With its investment, Toyota’s total funding committed to the eVTOL specialist inches closer to $1 billion. The money will help Joby secure flight certification and begin commercial production of its sustainable aerial technology.

In terms of our coverage of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, Joby Aviation ($JOBY) has held a mainstay in the beat as it remains one of the more promising startups in a growing segment that is quickly becoming crowded.

Part of that previous coverage included Joby’s first flight with a pilot onboard in October 2023, which quickly led to a demonstration in New York City ahead of full-fledged eVTOL air taxi operations planned for sometime in 2025.

Since beginning as a small team of seven engineers back in 2009, Joby has grown to a staff of over 1,500 people who operate out of its headquarters in Marina, California, as well as additional offices in Santa Cruz, San Carlos, Washington, DC, and Munich, Germany.

Part of its success is early believers in its eVTOL technology, which has invested hundreds of millions in funding, including Toyota Motor Corporation. Since 2019, Toyota has been a strategic investor in Joby and its eVTOL technology. The Japanese OEM has even deployed dozens of its own engineers to work alongside Joby’s engineers to help the aviation company determine its eVTOL factory layout and manufacturing processes and prepare for high-volume production in the US.

Recently, Toyota nearly doubled its previous investments in Joby Aviation to help the company reach certification and scaled production of its eVTOL air taxis.

Toyota eVTOL
Toyota Motor Corporation Operating Officer Tetsuo “Ted” Ogawa and Joby Aviation’s Founder and CEO, JoeBen Bevirt / Source: Joby Aviation

Toyota’s investment in Joby eVTOLs reaches $894 million

Per a recent release from Joby Aviation, Toyota Motor has committed to a new investment of $500 million which will be divided into two equal portions. The first half of the payment is targeted to close before the end of 2024, with the second to follow sometime in 2025.

When completed, the $500 million financial commitment will bring Toyota Motor’s total investment in Joby up to $894 million and will consist of cash in exchange for common stock. Tetsuo “Ted” Ogawa (seen above), the operating officer who inked the agreement on behalf of Toyota Motor Corporation, spoke about the automaker’s faith in Joby’s eVTOL technology and its desire to help contribute to “a shared vision of air mobility.”

With this additional investment, we are excited to see Joby certify their aircraft and shift to commercial production. We share Joby’s view that sustainable flight will be central to alleviating today’s persistent mobility challenges.

Toyota’s funding will help Joby in its ongoing quest to achieve flight certification and commercial production of its proprietary electric air taxis. The second payment, in particular, will rely on the finalization of terms related to a strategic alliance between both companies focused on commercial eVTOL manufacturing and other conditions.

In terms of eVTOL commercialization, Joby headway and recently rolled its third aircraft off its pilot production line in Marina, California, before breaking ground on a new expanded facility in The Golden State that will more than double its current production footprint. As of August 2024, Joby had completed 1/3 of the fourth and fifth stages of the type certification process before full-scaled eVTOL production and commercial air taxi operations with Toyota could begin.

You can learn more about Toyota’s investment and Joby’s eVTOL technology in the video below:

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Dodge Charger Daytona EV revs up Chicago Drives Electric [part 2]

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Dodge Charger Daytona EV revs up Chicago Drives Electric [part 2]

One of the most anticipated new EVs made its debut on the streets of Chicago this morning as Dodge brand CEO Matt McAlear rev’ed onto the stage in a pre-production example of the 2025 Dodge Charger Daytona EV Scat Pack Stage 2.

Before we get too far, I want to set your expectations low — I didn’t get to drive the Charger Daytona EV. None of the press in attendance for Chicago’s addition to national Drive Electric Week did, in fact, because the low-slung silver stunner was Dodge CEO Matt McAlear’s personal DD, we were told, and he had to, “get it back to Detroit in one piece.”

Despite that, we were able to crawl all over the new-age electric Daytona while McAlear gave us a presentation and some Q&A time, and I have to say that the fit and finish of the car — even in pre-production spec — seemed a step or two above that of the last Mopar coupe (a 2011 Challenger in “Kowalski” white) that I spent any real time in.

I also have to say, with complete objectivity, that the Dodge Charger Daytona EV’s Fratzonic ‘Exhaust’ did not elicit the reactions I expected.

“That’s stupid,” said the man to my right, a former Ford electrical engineer who worked on the Maverick and Mach-E teams. “But it brings a smile to my face.” McAlear put the Fratzonic into “drag mode,” and rev’ed it again. “That’s — I don’t want to like it. But I love it.”

On my left, a smart, successful, attractive woman couldn’t hold back her laughter. “It’s a guy thing, for sure.”

My own notes (hilariously) read, “You can set the exhaust volume to 11 so everyone on your block will know the special boy has a new car.”

Even so, I did catch myself smiling at the vaguely PS2-ish sound quality. I have fond memories of playing GranTurismo in the USAF Tech School dorms, and the Dodge sounded every bit like that game’s digitally recreated big block V8s. I won’t even post my video of the car (shot on an iPhone 15), because the online videos simply just don’t do it justice.

Fake exhaust, real car

Dodge Charger Daytona EV interior; by the author.

As Matt McAlear spoke disparagingly about the “value-driven” Dodge brand of years past that sold Neons and Caravans and Journeys for $19,995, he waxed poetic about Dodge and the brotherhood of muscle, invoking scat packs, Hellcats, and Demons, he said that Dodge was OK with being “that crazy cousin that you’re not sure you want to invite over for Thanksgiving.” The Dodge CEO insists that they’re good with that vibe. They’re comfortable there, with the people “who don’t care what others think about them.”

Ignoring both the fact that your racist uncle is probably also good with that vibe, and the fact that today’s Dodge dealers would probably love a seven-passenger crossover they could sell for under $25,000 out the door, the Charger Daytona EV Scat Pack 2 delivers a surprising amount of value for its asking price.

For starters, there’s a ton of room in the thing. The proportions scream “muscle car” but once you understand how big those tires and wheels really are, you’ll believe me when I tell you there’s room for five actual humans in this thing.

There’s also all-wheel drive. Often seen as a must-have feature here in Chicago, it turns the Charger Daytona EV Scat Pack Stage 2 into a car that will be seen as a potential DD, and not “just” a fair weather friend. With 670 hp and 627 lb-ft of torque available at 0 rpm, that AWD helps deliver straight line performance as well as all-weather safety, too.

Add in the fact that the car is eligible for up to $7500 in lease assistance from Stellantis (and up to 7500 additional dollars from ComEd, if any municipal or state police fleet managers are reading this) make it both faster, cleaner, and more affordable than the current closest V8 Chargerand that, as they say, is progress!

Electrek’s Take

Dodge Charger Daytona EV Scat Pack 2; image by the author.

The new Charger Daytona certainly looks the part of a modern muscle car, and there’s no question that it’s faster and more capable than any of the classic Mopars from the 60s and 70s. That said, Dodge seems to be a brand that’s more interested in appealing to the type of car enthusiast that looks back on some imagined “golden age” of chest-pounding automotive performance from days gone by, and not a brand that’s looking to to the future.

The golden age of performance is now. And it’s very, very quiet.

ORIGINAL CONTENT FROM ELECTREK.

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America’s cheapest EV defies the odds as Nissan LEAF sales make US comeback

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America's cheapest EV defies the odds as Nissan LEAF sales make US comeback

Nissan’s LEAF was once the world’s best-selling EV, but it’s lost some ground over the years as new, more advanced models hit the market. Although Nissan plans to launch an upgraded LEAF next year, America’s cheapest EV saw sales surge 187% in the third quarter.

“When we launched LEAF in 2010, it instantly became the most affordable, mass-market EV in the world,” Nissan Motor North America CEO Jose Munoz previously claimed.

Although automakers are launching extremely low-priced EVs in some markets, like China (see BYD’s Seagull, starting under $10,000), the LEAF is still the most affordable all-electric option in the US.

Starting at $28,140, the Nissan LEAF is, in fact, America’s cheapest EV right now. This is especially true now that the Chevy Bolt (2023MY started at $26,500) is off the market.

As such, Nissan is still seeing demand for the legacy electric hatchback. In the third quarter, Nissan sold 4,514 LEAF models in the US, up 187% from the 1,570 sold in Q3 2023.

Although not a monumental number, LEAF sales are up significantly from the 1,925 sold in Q2 and 1,142 models sold in the first three months of 2024. Nissan has now sold 7,581 LEAFs in the US through September.

Nissan-LEAF-sales
2025 Nissan LEAF (Source Nissan)

Nissan LEAF sales surge in the US ahead of new model

Nissan sold another 5,552 Ariya electric SUVs in the US in the third quarter for a total of 14,897 through the first nine months of 2024.

The Ariya is viewed as a major upgrade over the LEAF, with up to 304 miles range (compared to the LEAF’s 212-mile range), a more powerful drive system, and a CCS1 port.

Nissan-Ariya
2024 Nissan Ariya Platinum+ e-4ORCE (Source: Nissan)

However, it costs over $10,000 more than the LEAF, with 2024 Ariya SUV prices starting at $39,590.

Although the LEAF currently has the lowest starting price for an EV in the US, it’s only eligible for a partial $3,750 federal tax credit. With only a partial credit, incoming rivals like the Chevy Equinox EV and Volvo EX30, starting around $35,000, will likely take market share.

Nissan EV Model Starting US Price Max Range
Nissan LEAF $28,140 212 miles (*SV Plus model)
Nissan Ariya $39,590 304 miles (*Venture+ trim)
Nissan LEAF and Ariya EV starting price and range in the US

Luckily, Nissan plans to launch the next-gen LEAF next year. According to the company, it was already previewed with the Chill Out concept, unveiled in 2021.

According to sources, the new LEAF will be more of a crossover coupe SUV, closer in style to the Ariya. One source even called it a “mini Ariya” as Nissan aims to regain its share of the EV market.

The Nissan LEAF is still one of the most affordable EVs in the US, starting at $28,140. If you want to scoop one up while it’s still available, use our link to view offers at a dealer near you. You can also see deals on the Nissan Ariya here.

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