It has been an extraordinary few hours which may well set the tone for a hugely consequential week ahead.
In the time that it took me to fly from London to Saudi Arabia, where President Donald Trump will begin a pivotal Middle East tour this week, a flurry of news has emerged on a range of key global challenges.
• On the Ukraine war: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said he is prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul – this announcement came minutes after Trump urged Zelenskyy to agree to the meeting.
• On the China-US trade war: The White House says the two countries have agreed to a “trade deal”. China said the talks, in Geneva, were “candid, in-depth and constructive”.
All three of these developments represent dramatic shifts in three separate challenges and hint at the remarkable influence the US president is having globally.
This sets the ground for what could be a truly consequential week for Trump’s presidency and his ability to effect change.
On Ukraine, Putin held a late-night news conference at the Kremlin on Saturday at which he made the surprise proposal of talks with Zelenskyy in Istanbul this Thursday.
But he rejected European and US calls for an immediate ceasefire.
The move was widely interpreted as a delay tactic.
Trump then issued a social media post urging Zelenskyy to accept the Russian proposal; effectively to call Putin’s bluff.
The American president wrote: “President Putin of Russia doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY. At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly! I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who’s too busy celebrating the Victory of World War ll, which could not have been won (not even close!) without the United States of America. HAVE THE MEETING, NOW!!!”
“We await a full and lasting ceasefire, starting from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy. There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally. I hope that this time the Russians will not look for excuses,” Zelenskyy wrote on X.
The prospect of Putin and Zelenskyy together in Istanbul on Thursday is remarkable.
It raises the possibility that Trump would want to be there too.
Image: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomes other world leaders to Kyiv. Pic: Presidential Office of Ukraine/dpa/AP Images
Israel’s war in Gaza
On Gaza, it’s been announced that US envoy Steve Witkoff will arrive in Israel on Monday to finalise details for the release of Idan Alexander, an Israeli-American hostage being held by Hamas.
The development comes after it was confirmed that Mr Witkoff has been holding discussions with Israel, Qatar and Egypt and, through them, with Hamas.
The talks focused on a possible Gaza hostage deal and larger peace discussions for a ceasefire.
Meanwhile, officials from the United States and China have been holding talks in Geneva, Switzerland, to resolve their trade war, which was instigated by Trump’s tariffs against China.
Late on Sunday evening, the White House released a statement claiming that a trade deal had been struck.
In a written statement, titled “U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva”, treasury secretary Scott Bessent said: “I’m happy to report that we made substantial progress between the United States and China in the very important trade talks… We will be giving details tomorrow, but I can tell you that the talks were productive. We had the vice premier, two vice ministers, who were integrally involved, Ambassador Jamieson, and myself. And I spoke to President Trump, as did Ambassador Jamieson, last night, and he is fully informed of what is going on. So, there will be a complete briefing tomorrow morning.”
Beijing Global Times newspaper quoted the Chinese vice premier as saying that the talks were candid, in-depth and constructive.
However, the Chinese fell short of calling it a trade deal.
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In a separate development, US media reports say that Qatar is preparing to gift Trump a Boeing 747 from its royal fleet, which he would use as a replacement for the existing and aging Air Force One plane.
The Qatari government says no deal has been finalised, but the development is already causing controversy because of the optics of accepting gifts of this value.
There is a critical question hanging over the events of the past few days.
Behind the chest-thumping from Donald Trump, and the bewilderment beyond at his statecraft-by-social-media, doubts have now reached fever pitch about the success of the American bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites.
“We were assuming that the damage was going to be much more significant than this assessment is finding,” said one of three sources, speaking to NBC News.
“This assessment is already finding that these core pieces are still intact. That’s a bad sign for the overall programme.”
NBC News has spoken to three sources – all of whom say that the initial assessment by the Defence Intelligence Agency has concluded that the US airstrikes were not as effective as Mr Trump claimed.
Similar leaks were made to The New York Times, The Washington Post and CNN.
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4:04
Why did Trump lash out at Iran and Israel?
Responding to the CNN leak, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said: “This alleged assessment is flat-out wrong and was classified as ‘top secret’ but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous, low-level loser in the intelligence community.”
She continued: “The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump, and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran’s nuclear programme. Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000lb bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration.”
In his address to the nation on Saturday night, Mr Trump had said: “I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.”
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3:34
Trump: Iran strikes ‘spectacular success’
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has also dismissed the leaks, saying: “Based on everything we have seen – and I’ve seen it all – our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons.
“Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target – and worked perfectly.”
“The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran, so anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the president and the successful mission.”
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3:03
Iran’s nuclear capabilities
Battle Damage Assessments (BDAs) take a long time to be close to conclusive and require extensive intelligence analysis.
Speaking to Sky News, former director of the CIA and top US General David Petraeus cautioned about drawing any conclusions at this stage.
“Well, the truth is, it is just too soon. And those who are leaking should know that it takes a long time to do the battle damage assessment. And those who have actually pushed back in very conclusive ways also probably should have wait for the full results,” Gen Petraeus said.
“This is a very painstaking process. It’s an effort by the overall intelligence community, not just Defence Intelligence Agency. In fact, the CIA would be the lead in this effort to mine all sources of intelligence, imagery, intelligence of all types, signals, cyber, even open-source intelligence.”
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2:29
Trump’s ‘ripping up the rule book’
Beyond the debate over the extent of the damage, questions remain over whether Iran might have managed to move equipment including centrifuges. Critically too, the whereabouts of about 400kg of highly enriched uranium is unknown.
The classified assessment of the military’s operation in Iran has been transmitted to Congress and has been viewed by some senators in a secure location, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the situation.
“I’ve reviewed the classified material,” Democratic Party Senator Tim Kaine, a member of the Armed Services Committee, said.
“I’m a little bit disappointed that my colleagues went and looked at it and mainly started talking about it publicly. That’s not we’re supposed to do with a classified report,” he added.
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7:58
Iran ‘not at all’ thankful for Trump
Speaking on Sunday to NBC’s Meet The Press, Israel’s ambassador to the UN Danny Danon insisted Iran’s nuclear capability had been dramatically set back.
“I think it’s still very early to jump into conclusions. We have to wait for the assessment. I can tell you one thing for sure. If you look where Iran was 12 days ago and where they are today, you understand that both Israel and the US were able to degrade the capabilities, push them back decades, and if we had an imminent threat, it doesn’t exist anymore.”
Failure – it’s the F word Donald Trump fears most.
Hence the early morning rant from a president, F for frustrated.
The day before had seen head-spinning developments in which a ceasefire between Israel and Iran turned on a Truth Social post.
If it felt fragile, that’s how it appeared overnight. There were exchanges between both sides beyond the deadline, and the president woke frustrated.
An unlikely diplomatic result looked exactly that.
Image: Donald Trump lashed out at Iran and Israel before boarding a flight to Europe on Tuesday. Pic: Reuters
Trump’s four-lettered fury was aimed primarily at Israel, which on Tuesday morning gave the appearance of an ally that had reeled him into the fight and wasn’t letting go.
It also leant into doubts around Trump’s influence over Israeli actions.
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If this process is heading towards nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran, Trump doesn’t need questions surrounding his relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Tehran needs to believe Trump can tighten the leash.
It will have been comforted by his remarks on board Air Force One, from where he called Netanyahu.
Speaking to the travelling media, Trump said he didn’t want to see regime change in Iran, having floated support for the idea last week.
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Israel’s prime minister’s office issued a statement that spoke of having “achieved all the war’s objectives”.
The wording speaks to a move beyond aggression.
Time will tell, and this ceasefire feels fragile still, but it’ll do for Trump for now, the self-styled peacemaker making peace one social media post at a time.
He is strengthened by the success of his diplomacy, a fact laid bare – where else? – on Truth Social.
Image: Trump boarding Air Force One to travel to Europe on Tuesday. Pic: AP
As he flew towards the NATO summit, Trump posted a message from the NATO secretary general, Mark Rutte.
It’s unclear if Rutte knew it would be published, but it’s abundantly clear he’s a man with lips puckered as the US president swaggers towards the gathering.
Referring to NATO countries’ commitment to increase their defence spending to 5% of GDP, he wrote: “Donald, you have driven us to a really, really important moment for America and Europe and the world.
“You will achieve something NO American president in decades could get done.”
The effusive praise speaks to power enhanced for the US president as he prepares to attend the NATO gathering.
His stature is reinforced by his most recent result… as long as it lasts.