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The latest energy price cap announcement brings a welcome if modest reduction in prices for 22 million consumers, and valuable context to the politically corrosive debate over the Winter Fuel Allowance.

From July, the maximum unit price for gas and electricity will come down 7%, amounting to a cut of £129 to Ofgem’s notional “typical usage” calculation for an average household, now set at £1,720.

It is the first fall in a year, reflecting the path of natural gas wholesale prices, which have been in decline since March and, on current forecasts, are expected to remain broadly flat as we head into the winter.

If that’s the case, then consumers can look forward to a period of relative calm when it comes to energy bills. Given that this cut will begin in July, the lowest-consumption quarter of the year, it would be particularly welcome if lower rates continue into next winter.

The weather, global economic fortunes determined by Donald Trump and the path of the war in Ukraine will all influence those prices, and you might not want to rely on any of them.

It is a safe bet that the winter fuel row will still be simmering, and this announcement is a reminder that it is a benefit with far greater political currency than actual economic benefit to the recipients.

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At £200 for anyone of pensionable age, rising to £300 for those over 80, the universal allowance was negligible or irrelevant for millions of recipients, but fundamental to the very poorest households.

The price cut announced today is worth 64% of the lower rate, and 43% of the £300 payment, underlining that energy prices and pensioner poverty are the fundamental issues, rather than an arbitrary benefit unchanged in 25 years and falling in real-terms value ever since.

Returning gas and electricity prices to the long-term pre-Ukraine war average of around £1,200 would almost double the value of the winter fuel payment, but there is little chance of that in the short term.

Addressing the wealth imbalance in a society where a quarter of the population will rely wholly on the state pension in retirement may be even more intractable.

In the meantime, consumers are advised to shop around for deals. This morning, several major suppliers are offering fixed rates below the new price cap, which might offer value even in a stable market.

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Israel-Iran ceasefire hopes drive down oil and gas costs

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Israel-Iran ceasefire hopes drive down oil and gas costs

Global oil costs have fallen back sharply amid hopes that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran will end the threat of disruption to crucial energy flows for the world economy.

The cost of a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, was as high as $81 late on Sunday night as financial markets opened in Asia.

It was the first reaction to news of the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend and built on gains seen widely since Israel first began its strikes 10 days previously.

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But prices came down on Monday evening after it became clear that Iran’s retaliation, through missile attacks on a US base in Qatar, were a mere face-saving exercise due to the Americans being pre-warned by Tehran.

Drops of more than 7% in US trading were followed by a further 3% fall on Tuesday, with Brent currently standing just below $68.

It remains, however, $5 a barrel higher on where it started the month and reflects the continuing, possible, threat to shipping in the key Strait of Hormuz which handles 20% of global oil and 30% of natural gas supplies.

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The main concerns in the energy market were over potential disruption to liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries as it remains in high demand.

Europe is yet to fully restock following the harsh end to last winter which drained storage levels.

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Trump not happy with Israel

As such prices had already been driven up by steep competition from Asia for Gulf supplies.

UK day-ahead natural gas prices were more than 25% up in the month, as of Monday, and have not fallen as sharply as oil costs.

Financial services specialists have pointed to upwards shifts in the risk premiums facing cargo, especially tankers, due to the conflict.

Analysts had warned last week that a sustained Middle East war with disruption to energy shipping risked a fresh cost of living crisis similar to that seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

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Timeline of recent Israel-Iran conflict so far

Only a sustained ceasefire is likely to bring the additional costs seen in wholesale prices down.

Stock markets have also reacted positively to the ceasefire development, with the FTSE 100 in London up by 0.3%.

The gains in London have lagged those seen across much of Europe.

Commenting on the moves Russ Mould, AJ Bell’s investment director, said: “The markets will be watching closely to see if the cessation in hostilities is maintained and for Iran’s next move – amid noises from that side that no such ceasefire has been agreed.

“Defensive stocks, oil producers and precious metals miners were all under pressure in early trading.

“Gold slipped back as its safe-haven attributes were less in demand. This rather clipped the wings of the FTSE 100 given its relatively heavy weightings in these areas and saw the index underperform its European counterparts.

“On the flipside, travel stocks moved higher, both on the implications for fuel costs but also as the potential hit to foreign travel appetite that might have resulted from any further escalation of Middle East tensions seems to have been swerved.”

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Amazon to invest £40bn in UK – with more warehouses and thousands of new jobs

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Amazon to invest £40bn in UK - with more warehouses and thousands of new jobs

Amazon has said it will invest £40bn in the UK over the next three years as it creates thousands of jobs and opens four new warehouses.

The online shopping giant will build two huge fulfilment centres in the East Midlands, which it expects to open in 2027. The exact locations are still to be revealed.

Two others – in Hull and Northampton – were previously announced and are set to be finished this year and in 2026 respectively, with 2,000 jobs expected at each site.

Amazon is already one of the country’s biggest private employers – with around 75,000 staff.

Two new buildings will also go up at its corporate headquarters in east London, while other investment includes new delivery stations, upgrading its transport network and redeveloping Bray Film Studios in Berkshire – which it bought last year.

The £40bn figure also includes most of the £8bn announced in 2024 for building and maintaining UK data centres, as well as staff wages and benefits.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said the investment into Amazon’s third-biggest market after the US and Germany was a “massive vote of confidence in the UK as the best place to do business”.

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“It means thousands of new jobs – real opportunities for people in every corner of the country to build careers, learn new skills, and support their families,” said Sir Keir.

The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said it was a “powerful endorsement of Britain’s economic strengths”.

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Amazon chief executive Andy Jassy stressed the investment would benefit communities across the UK.

“When Amazon invests, it’s not only in London and the South East,” he said.

“We’re bringing innovation and job creation to communities throughout England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, strengthening the UK’s economy and delivering better experiences for customers wherever they live.”

However, Amazon’s immense power and size continues to raise concerns among some regulators, unions and campaigners.

There have long been claims over potentially dangerous conditions at its warehouses – denied by the company, while last week Britain’s grocery regulator launched an investigation into whether it breached rules on supplier payments.

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Plans to cut energy costs for thousands of businesses announced

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Plans to cut energy costs for thousands of businesses announced

Plans to cut energy costs for thousands of businesses have been announced as part of the government’s long-awaited industrial strategy.

The announcement confirms Sky News reporting that the plan proposes making energy prices more competitive.

Firms have said high prices have hindered growth and made them less competitive.

Commercial energy prices are the highest in the G7 group of industrialised nations.

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Under the industrial strategy for 2025 to 2035, the government has said it plans to cut the bills of electricity-intensive manufacturers by up to £40 per megawatt hour – up to 25% – from 2027, which could benefit more than 7,000 businesses.

These savings will come by exempting them from certain levies on bills.

Roughly 500 of the most energy-intensive companies, such as the steel industry, chemicals and glassmaking industries, will also see their network charges cut.

Pic: iStock
Image:
Pic: iStock

The current 60% discount they get, via the British Industry Supercharger scheme, will increase to 90% from next year.

The government also said the energy measures would be funded through reforms to the energy system, without raising household bills or taxes.

The scope and eligibility for the scheme will be finalised after a consultation.

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The policy is the first industrial strategy of its kind in eight years and comes as part of the government’s key priority of growing the economy.

Pressure was on to develop such a policy after the US’s Inflation Reduction Act boosted investment in renewable energy, and the European Union’s Net-Zero Industry Act was designed to boost domestic production.

A “bespoke” 10-year plan has been created for eight sectors where the UK is said to be strong already and there is potential for growth.

The sectors named by the government are advanced manufacturing, clean energy, creative industries, defence, digital and technologies, life sciences, professional and business services, and financial services.

The state-owned British Business Bank will expand to spur investment into smaller companies, and provide an extra £1.2bn a year by 2028-29.

The government also repeated its ambition to cut regulatory burdens, spend more on research and development and speed up the planning process.

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