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Even for those of us who follow these kinds of things on a regular basis, the spending review is, frankly, a bit of a headache.

This is one of the biggest moments in Britain’s economic calendar – bigger, in some respects, than the annual budget.

After all, these reviews, which set departmental spending totals for years to come, only happen every few years, while budgets come around every 12 months (or sometimes more often).

Yet trying to get your head around the spending review – in particular this year’s spending review – is a far more fraught exercise than with the budget.

In large part that’s because the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the quasi-independent body that scrutinises the government’s figures, is not playing a part this time around.

There will be no OBR report to cast light, or doubt, on some of the claims from the government. Added to this, the data on government spending are famously abstruse.

So perhaps the best place to start when approaching the review is to take a deep breath and a step back. With that in mind, here are five things you really need to know about the 2025 spending review.

1. It’s not about all spending

That might seem like a strange thing to say. Why would a spending review not concern itself with all government spending? But it turns out this review doesn’t even cover the majority of government spending in the coming years.

To see what I mean you need to remember that you can split total government spending (£1.4trn in this fiscal year) into two main categories.

First there’s what you might call non-discretionary spending. Spending on welfare, on pensions, on debt interest.

Source: Sky/OBR

This is spending the government can’t really change very easily on a year-to-year basis. It’s somewhat uncontrolled, but since civil servants wince at that idea, they have given it a name that suggests precisely the opposite: “annually managed expenditure” or AME.

Then there’s the spending the government has a little more control over: spending in its departments, from the Ministry of Defence to the NHS to the Home Office.

This is known as “departmental spending”. This is what the spending review is about – determining what departments spend.

The key thing to note here is that these days departmental spending (actually, to confuse things yet further, the Treasury calls it Departmental Expenditure Limits or DEL) is quite a bit smaller than AME (the less controlled bit with benefits, pensions and debt interest costs).

In short, this spending review is actually only about a fraction – about 41p in every pound – of government spending.

You can break it down further, by the way. Because departmental spending can be split into day-to-day spending (Resource DEL) and investment (capital DEL). But let’s stop with the acronyms and move on to the second thing you really need to know.

2. It’s a “zero-based” review. Apparently

The broad amount the government is planning to spend on its departments was set in stone some time ago. The real task at hand in this review is not to decide the overall departmental spend but something else: how that money is divided up between departments.

Consider: in this fiscal year (2025/26) the government is due to spend just over £500bn of your money on day-to-day expenditure.

Of that, by far the biggest chunk is going to the NHS (£202bn), followed by education (£94bn), defence (£39bn) and a host of other departments. That much we know.

Source: Sky/OBR

In the next fiscal year, we have a headline figure for how much day-to-day spending to expect across government. What we don’t have is that breakdown.

How much of the total will be health, education, defence and so on? That, in a sense, is the single biggest question the review will set out to answer.

Now, in previous spending reviews the real debate wasn’t over those grand departmental totals, but over something else: how much would they increase by in the following years?

This time around we are told by Rachel Reeves et al that it’s a slightly different philosophy. This time it’s a “zero-based review”.

For anyone from the world of accountancy, this will immediately sound tremendously exciting. A zero-based review starts from the position that the department will have to justify not just an annual increase (or decrease), but every single pound it spends.

It is not that far off what Elon Musk was attempting to implement with the DOGE movement in US government – a line-by-line check of spending.

That’s tremendously ambitious. And typically zero-based reviews tend to throw out some dramatic changes.

All of which is to say, in theory, unless you believed government was run with incredibly ruthless efficiency, if this really were a zero-based review, you’d expect those departmental spending numbers to yo-yo dramatically in this review. They certainly shouldn’t just be moving by small margins.

Is that really what Whitehall will provide us with in this review? Almost certainly not.

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3. It’s the first multi-year review in ages

What we will get, however, is a longer-range set of spending plans than government has been able to provide in a long time.

I said at the start that these reviews are typically multi-year affairs, setting budgets many years in advance.

However, the last multi-year review happened in the midst of COVID and you have to look back to 2015 for the previous multi year review.

That certainty about future budgets matters for any government department attempting to map out its plans and, hopefully, improve public sector productivity in the coming years.

So the fact that this review will set spending totals not just for next fiscal year but for the next three years is no small deal.

Indeed, for investment spending (which is actually the thing the government will probably spend more time talking about), we get numbers for four successive years. And the chances are that is what the government will most want to talk about.

Source: Sky/OBR

4. It’s not “austerity”

One of the big questions that periodically returns to haunt the government is that we are heading for a return to the austerity policies prosecuted by George Osborne after 2010.

So it’s worth addressing this one quickly. The spending totals implied by this spending review are nothing like those implemented by the coalition government between 2010 and 2015.

You get a sense of this when you look at total public spending, not in cash or even inflation-adjusted terms (which is what the Treasury typically likes to show us), but at those figures as a percentage of GDP.

Day-to-day spending dropped from 21.5% of GDP in 2009/10 to 15% of GDP in 2016/17. This was one of the sharpest falls in government spending on record.

By contrast, the spending envelope for this review will see day-to-day spending increasing rather than decreasing in the coming years.

The real question comes back to how that extra spending is divided between departments.

Much money has already been promised for the NHS and for defence. That would seem, all else equal, to imply less money for everyone else.

But overshadowing everything else is the fact that there’s simply not an awful lot of money floating around.

5. It’s not a big splurge either

While the totals are indeed due to increase in the coming years, they are not due to increase by all that much.

Source: Sky/OBR

Indeed, compared with most multi-year spending reviews in the past, this one is surprisingly small.

In each year covered by the 2000 and 2002 comprehensive spending reviews under Gordon Brown, for instance, capital investment grew by 16.3% and 10.6% respectively.

Source: Sky/OBR

This time around, it’s due to increase by just 1.3%. Now, granted, that slightly understates it. Include 2025/26 (not part of this review but still a year of spending determined by this Labour government) and the annual average increase is 3.4%.

Even so, the overall picture is not one of plenty, but one of moderation.

While Rachel Reeves will wax lyrical about the government’s growth plans, the numbers in the spending review will tell a somewhat different story. If you can get your head around them, that is.

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Ex-US top regulator warns of conflicts of interest as Senate weighs market structure

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Ex-US top regulator warns of conflicts of interest as Senate weighs market structure

Ex-US top regulator warns of conflicts of interest as Senate weighs market structure

The US Senate Banking Committee’s digital assets subcommittee will hear testimony from former CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam and lawyers at Coinbase and Multicoin Capital.

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Kemi Badenoch says Tories will support Sir Keir Starmer’s welfare cuts – on three conditions

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Kemi Badenoch says Tories will support Sir Keir Starmer's welfare cuts - on three conditions

Kemi Badenoch has offered Conservative support, in order to help the government pass its controversial welfare changes.

The Tory leader told Sky News she would be asking for three commitments from Sir Keir Starmer, if he wants to use Conservative votes to pass the reforms to disability benefits, which have triggered an unprecedented rebellion of more than 100 Labour MPs.

Ms Badenoch said: “I’m just making it very clear to Keir Starmer that if he will make commitments at the despatch box to meet our conditions which are to reduce the welfare budget, to get people into work and not to have tax rises, then we can support his bill.

“The bill is a bit of a mess. It needs some work. It looks like it’s been rushed for Rachel [Reeves] to fix other problems that they’ve got. But our welfare budget is far too high, and we really need to bring it down.”

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The prospect of the bill passing on Conservative votes would outrage Labour MPs.

An amendment they have tabled says they cannot support the bill because it would drive disabled people into poverty, and they are concerned about whether people losing benefits would find work.

More on Kemi Badenoch

Around 119 Labour MPs have now signed the amendment, while Sadiq Khan has become the most senior Labour figure to call for a “rethink”. The mayor of London has warned that the proposed cuts would “destroy [the] financial safety net” for “too many disabled Londonders”.

Welfare Secretary Liz Kendall has tried to reassure Labour MPs about the changes. But the rebels are hoping the government will water down their proposals in order to get Labour support.

The prime minister, speaking at a NATO summit in The Hague on Tuesday, insisted the government would press ahead.

Keir Starmer told Sky News: “We’ve got to get on and make that reform because the options are: leave the system as it is, trusting people and not helping them, that’s not a Labour option. The Labour option is to reform it and make it fit for the future. So we’re going to press ahead with these reforms.”

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Sir Keir Starmer says he wants to see the ceasefire between Israel and Iran maintained.

A vote is looming next Tuesday with Labour MPs deeply concerned about the changes which will see 370,000 current PIP claimants lose benefit, and affect 3 million people in total.

The rebels hope the government will climb down.

One of them, Neil Duncan-Jordan, the MP for Poole, told Sky News that relying on Conservative votes “is not a good look for any government”.

He added: “If you can’t rely on your own party, I think you’re in a serious place.”

Responding to Ms Badenoch’s offer, a Labour spokesperson said the government was “elected to deliver change” and that it’s “prepared to take on the challenges holding the UK back”.

They added: “We’re fixing the abysmal mess the Tories left behind, and MPs can either vote to keep a broken failed welfare system that writes people off, or they can vote to start fixing it.

“Next week’s bill is a test for the leader of the opposition as to whether her party has learned anything at all by being roundly rejected by Britain.”

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Sir Keir Starmer defiant over welfare cuts despite rebellion from Labour MPs

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Sir Keir Starmer defiant over welfare cuts despite rebellion from Labour MPs

Sir Keir Starmer has reaffirmed his desire to push through controversial benefit cuts despite a mounting rebellion among his MPs.

The prime minister said there was a “clear moral case” for the reforms, which aim to slash £5bn a year from the welfare bill by 2030.

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While many Labour MPs initially indicated they backed the bill in principle, support has ebbed away over recent months amid warnings about the impact the cuts could have on the most vulnerable people in society.

Around 119 Labour MPs have now signed a reasoned amendment to oppose the government’s proposals – which, if passed, would effectively kill the legislation.

But speaking to Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby from the NATO summit at the Hague, the prime minister said the welfare system needed reform and was “not working for anyone”.

He said the vote planned for Tuesday was not a confidence vote in his leadership but on the need to reform the system.

“I think most colleagues do accept the case for reform,” he said.

“We’ve got to get on and make that reform because the options are: leave the system as it is, trusting people and not helping them, that’s not a Labour option. The Labour option is to reform it and make it fit for the future. So we’re going to press ahead with these reforms.”

Keir Starmer arrives at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport ahead of the NATO summit.
Pic: AP
Image:
Sir Keir Starmer made the comments on his way to a NATO summit in the Netherlands. Pic: AP


Welfare system ‘unsustainable’

Sir Keir spoke to reporters on the way to the summit about the reforms, saying there were around 1,000 people a day signing up for personal independence payment (PIP) – equivalent to the size of the population of Leicester.

“That is not a system that can be left unreformed, not least because it’s unsustainable, and therefore you won’t have a welfare system for those that need it in the future,” he added.

“So those that care about a future welfare system have to answer the question – how do you reform what you’ve got to make sure it’s sustainable for the future?'”

Introduced in March, the government’s welfare bill outlines proposals to make it harder for some disabled people to qualify for PIP while also cutting universal credit, another benefit.

What are the main changes in the welfare bill?

The most controversial elements of the government’s welfare bill are changes to PIP and Universal Credit.

PIP is money for people who have extra care needs or mobility needs as a result of a disability.

People who claim it – some of whom are in work – are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, such as washing and preparing food, and this influences how much they will receive.

Under the plans, from November 2026, people will need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify for the daily living element of PIP – instead of fewer points across a broader range of tasks the person needs help with.

Currently, the standard rate is given if people score between eight and 11 points overall, while the enhanced rate applies from 12 points.

The changes do not affect the mobility component of PIP.

And from April next year, the health element of Universal Credit will be frozen in cash terms for existing claimants at £97 per week until 2029/2030.

For new claimants, the health element of Universal Credit will be reduced to £50 per week.

However, ministers point to the fact that the Universal Credit standard allowance will increase from £92 per week in 2025-26 to £106 per week by 2029-30.

Overall, 3.2 million families are expected to lose an average of £1,720 by the end of 2030 due to the changes.

However, the government has stressed that these figures do not take into account the £1bn that is being put towards helping the long-term sick and disabled back into work.

It is these changes that have caused the most anxiety among MPs.

As one Labour MP told Sky News: “If the thrust of the policy is getting people into work, how does cutting support for people in work, work?

“The thrust of the proposals is right but cutting PIP and Universal Credit isn’t about getting people back into work, it’s about saving money.”

The reasoned amendment calls on the government to delay the proposals pending an assessment of the impact of the PIP cuts.

It also cites concern about the government’s own figures which show 250,000 people could be pushed into poverty as a result of the changes and the lack of a formal consultation with disabled people.

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One Labour rebel told Sky News there was a “broad sense of unease across all levels of the parliamentary party”.

“Almost everyone thinks there needs to be reform and there are a lot of good things in the bill, but elements need more thought and explanation if they are going to proceed,” they said.

“Unless those issues are revised, or much better explained and justified, I don’t think there is enough support for the measures. People are really worried there is a rush to do this and that we might sleepwalk into this as we have done with other issues.”

On Tuesday, Downing Street suggested the vote would still go ahead despite the concerns of some MPs – including influential chairs of parliamentary select committees.

Asked whether the government was confident it could pass the legislation, a Number 10 spokesman told reporters: “We are focused on delivering last week’s bill and engaging, talking to colleagues, as to why this reform is so important.”

Pressed on whether the vote was happening next week, they added: “I would never get ahead of parliamentary business. It’s scheduled for next week. We are committed to reforming welfare.”

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