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Half of all Conservative members think Kemi Badenoch should not lead the party into the next election, according to an exclusive Sky News Tory members poll.

The YouGov poll found 46% think the current Tory leader should stay in place when the country next goes to the polls, while 50% say she should not.

Tory members are split as to whether she will make it that far. A total of 49% think she will be out before the election, compared with 47% who think she’ll still be in place.

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The Tory leader will hope that this week’s conference in Manchester will steady her leadership.

But asked who they would prefer as leader of the Conservative Party, 46% of Tory members picked Robert Jenrick, comfortably ahead of the 39% who said Ms Badenoch. In all, 11% said neither and 4% don’t know.

The poll of 652 Conservative members was taken between 26 September and 2 October.

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Having lost to Ms Badenoch a year ago, Mr Jenrick is now comfortably the members’ favourite, and would beat Boris Johnson, James Cleverly and Priti Patel. Badenoch would narrowly beat Johnson if they went head to head.

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Badenoch praises Thatcher but faces fight with grandees
Active plot against Kemi Badenoch at party conference

Ms Badenoch rejects any kind of electoral pact with Reform UK at the next election, but this is out of step with Tory members.

The poll finds 64% support an electoral pact, meaning Reform and the Tories would not stand candidates against each other in target seats, while 31% do not.

Almost half of Tory members – 46% – would support a full blown merger with Reform UK, against 48% who would oppose a merger.

Party members are very clear that in a hung parliament, they would not want to see Tory MPs putting a Labour prime minister back in Number 10.

Tory members oppose a coalition with Labour by 93% to 6%. However 73% would welcome a coalition with Reform UK in a hung parliament, with 25% against.

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Senate approves funding bill to reopen US gov’t, awaits vote in House

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Senate approves funding bill to reopen US gov’t, awaits vote in House

The US government is moving closer to reopening after more than 40 days of being shut down, following several Democratic lawmakers in the Senate siding with Republicans to pass a funding bill.

On Monday, the US Senate held a late-night vote for a bill “continuing appropriations and extensions for fiscal year 2026,” which passed 60 to 40 in the chamber. The bill is expected to fund the government through Jan. 31, 2026, provided it passes in the House of Representatives and is signed into law by President Donald Trump.

As Tuesday is a US federal holiday, the House is not expected to reconvene to vote on the bill until Wednesday at the earliest. Prediction platform Polymarket has already adjusted its expectation that the US government will return to normal operations on Friday, likely following the passage of the House bill.

Source: Polymarket

Amid the government shutdown — the longest in the country’s history — many federal agencies have furloughed staff and reduced operations to align with the lack of funding.

Even if the bill were to immediately pass and be signed into law, it will likely take some time before staff can return to work. The operations plan at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), for example, will allow employees to come back on the “next regularly scheduled workday following enactment of appropriations legislation.”

Related: China raises alarm over alleged US role in one of the largest Bitcoin hacks

Digital asset market structure negotiations proceeding

On Monday, the leadership of the Senate Agriculture Committee released a discussion draft of a comprehensive bill on crypto market structure. The draft followed weeks of reported negotiations between Democratic and Republican lawmakers, about four months after the House passed its version of the legislation.