Are the Utah Mammoth and Anaheim Ducks really this good?
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Kristen Shilton
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Greg Wyshynski
The NHL could use some new contenders, and not just because the Stanley Cup Final had the same participants for two straight seasons.
Fresh faces and burgeoning stars are intriguing. Teams on the rise bring renewed enthusiasm to the playoff races. Seeing teams that haven’t been postseason participants crashing the playoff party is a blast.
This season has a handful of teams seeking to break through into the playoffs. Two of them are in the Western Conference: the Utah Mammoth, in their second season in Salt Lake City; and the Anaheim Ducks, who’ve missed the playoffs for seven straight seasons. As of Tuesday, both of them were in playoff spots, with the Mammoth as a wild card and the Ducks leading the Pacific.
They’re new. They’re compelling. And above all, they’re fun to watch.
“Well, I guess it’s fun for you. It’s not fun for me,” joked Ducks GM Pat Verbeek, whose team has generated a lot of scoring chances but has also allowed its fair share. “Although sometimes chaos can go the right way.”
Can the Mammoth and Ducks sustain their early-season success? Here’s a look at how they became breakout teams this season and whether they’re destined for playoff berths or are just an early season tease that eventually fades from memory.
Are the Mammoth for real?
What has changed since last season?
Before there was a team called the Utah Mammoth, there was a Utah Hockey Club.
The former Arizona Coyotes swapped desert heat for snow-packed peaks in search of brighter days for a franchise that had made one playoff appearance in 12 years (during the COVID-19 shortened campaign) and was in desperate need of a new identity.
Utah would need time to develop that in their new digs (hence the generic Hockey Club moniker for Year 1). GM Bill Armstrong — who has been with the organization since 2020 — arrived with nine players selected in the first round of the NHL draft from 2021-25. With new ownership in place (the Smith Entertainment Group), Utah’s hockey team had the sort of support last season that it hadn’t in Arizona. And it led to one of its strongest seasons in over a decade.
At the Christmas break, Utah was 16-12-6. But the team ebbed and flowed from there, hovering around the .500 mark while continuing to establish some consistency in its game.
There would be another preview of Utah’s potential in the final stretch of last season, when the team took off on a 17-9-4 run to cap off an 89-point season — 12 points ahead of where it was in 2023-24. It didn’t get Utah into the playoff field — its 38-31-13 record left it seven points shy of the Western Conference’s final wild-card slot — but it suggested there were parts coming together that could take Utah’s claim to a spot sooner than anyone expected. And, well, here the Mammoth are, doing exactly that.
It’s still early enough in the NHL season to be skeptical of all 32 teams’ success — or failures — to this point. But Armstrong intended to give his group every chance of pushing past their previous ceiling. Defenseman Dmitri Simashev — the No. 6 pick by Arizona in 2023 — has landed on their blue line, and at just 20 years old, he is making a difference with some top-pairing looks. Veteran defender Nate Schmidt signed a three-year contract with Utah in the offseason.
And perhaps most importantly, Utah chose its permanent name in May, which signaled a new beginning. So it went that the Mammoth carried their momentum from last season into this one, opening the season with a 7-2-0 stretch that put them among the NHL’s top clubs.
There’s a long way to go, but there’s reason to believe the Mammoth aren’t far off from venturing back into the playoff picture.
Key factor No. 1: The stars are (really) scoring
The Mammoth offense is no one-trick pony; more like a multiheaded beast.
Utah has a one-two punch up front, featuring top-10 draft picks that are finally coming into their own. Logan Cooley — selected third in 2022, and the recent recipient of an eight-year, $80 million contract extension — has posted the team’s second-most goals (eight) and 13 points, sitting just behind Nick Schmaltz (a top-20 draftee by the Chicago Blackhawks in 2014) and his team-leading nine goals and 19 points.
Dylan Guenther (picked ninth overall by Arizona in 2021) and Clayton Keller (seventh overall in 2016) are tearing it up with 13 and 15 points, respectively. JJ Peterka — a trade addition from Buffalo in the offseason — is thriving too, with four goals and 10 points, while top-pairing defenseman Mikhail Sergachev is pitching in with 11 points from the back end.
All that to say, Utah has shown there is serious chemistry throughout its lineup and that’s only bred confidence. Through the Mammoth’s first 10 games, they ranked sixth in offense (3.70 goals per game) and they were one of the stingiest defensive clubs (ranking third overall with 2.40 goals against).
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Logan Cooley scores again for Utah after review
Logan Cooley gets his fifth goal in his last four periods of hockey with this effort that just about goes in vs. the Wild.
But it’s not just that the Mammoth can score; they’re opportunistic. Guenther shares the NHL lead in game-winning goals (four) and Keller kept the Mammoth perfect in overtime this season when he netted a marker in extra time over Buffalo earlier this month. Utah has found ways to be resilient no matter their circumstance.
Best of all, Utah’s core is signed for the long term. Cooley, Guenther, Peterka and forward Jack McBain are signed through 2029-30. Keller is inked through 2027-28.
Building that out on the ice, though, was no easy task for coach Andre Tourigny. Now in his fifth year with the organization, Tourigny endured the final rough years with his squad in Arizona before they moved to Salt Lake City in 2024. The then-Coyotes lost 40 or more games in each of their final three seasons in the desert, where the same skaters now lighting up the scoresheet with ease were floundering on the ice and off it, lacking the kind of infrastructure and resources now provided by SEG; think not playing out of a college arena and having access to state-of-the-art facilities.
“I think [Tourigny’s] had a great impact on them, raising them right and making sure that they play on both sides of the puck,” Armstrong told ESPN on Tuesday. “It’s not just all offense. I think sometimes when you have young, hungry, offensive guys, things can get swayed, and then you don’t teach the right things when they’re young about playing on the other side of the puck.
“And it’s also situational play of getting pucks deep at the right time and playing the clock and [managing] the score. And he’s done a good job with that.”
Like many young teams before them, the Mammoth had to take their lumps while becoming a competitive, 200-foot team. Over the first six weeks of last season, for example, they were averaging fewer than three goals per game while giving up the 12th most in the league (3.25). Tourigny’s patience with the Mammoth’s evolution is finally paying off, and it’s most obvious in the way their best players are, finally, their most impactful ones, too.
Key factor No. 2: Goal suppression buy-in
Karel Vejmelka took his time breaking into the NHL. Now, it looks like his moment to break out.
The 29-year-old goaltender had three seasons under his belt with the Coyotes when the franchise moved to Salt Lake City, and Utah wasted no time putting its weight behind Vejmelka as its No. 1. The 55 starts he made last season were not only a career high (by a significant margin), but tied for the fourth-most games played by any NHL goalie in 2024-25. Not only that, but Vejmelka made an eye-popping 22 consecutive starts as Utah made its postseason push.
While the team may have fallen short, there was no sleep lost in deciding that Vejmelka would enter this season on track to once again be Utah’s primary keeper of the crease.
Vejmelka started six of the Mammoth’s first eight games and was terrific over that stretch. He’s been identified as a calming presence by Utah teammates, and a backbone of their confidence every night. His numbers have dipped slightly since the Mammoth’s hot start cooled at the end of a long road trip, but there’s little doubt from Utah that he will bounce back and continue giving them the necessary goaltending to keep competing at the highest level.
If Utah’s forwards have been courting the headlines, then their defensive improvements deserve at least a few lines on the front page. Because it’s come together for Utah thanks to internal growth and some key additions.
There was Schmidt and Simashev coming in and filling roles to deepen the Mammoth blue line. Simashev has been a particular spark, and has skated with Sergachev on the club’s top pairing. But Utah’s gains in the defensive end are a product of their group effort. The Mammoth are allowing the fewest shots against in the league (24 per game) and their quick transition game can overwhelm opponents. While Utah can boast incredible offensive skaters, the way those same players pitch in without cheating for chances up the ice is a major reason why Utah has been in position to win so often this season.
Armstrong hasn’t been shy about discussing how painful the team’s rebuild has been. No GM hopes to be selecting at the top of the draft every year. This version of Utah is what Armstrong believed in all along — where’d they have the goaltending, the defensive buy-in and enough firepower to compete with any team.
What the analytics tell us
Rachel Kryshak, the data analyst behind Betalytics and a prospects writer for ESPN, had the Mammoth as her under-the-radar team headed into the season.
“My model had them finishing in the top wild-card spot, one point back of third in the Central,” she said.
Kryshak likes what she sees so far to back up the prediction.
“Thus far, the Mammoth are out chancing their opponents at even strength and they are among the league’s best at creating higher-danger scoring opportunities. On average, they outshoot their opponents by five shots per game and control the pace of play,” she said. “Their top six has done a fantastic job of utilizing their speed and skill to control the game. Their young talent is starting to mature in the NHL and develop chemistry together and when that is combined with high end speed, it becomes very difficult to defend.”
Micah Blake McCurdy, who does hockey data visualizations on Hockeyviz.com, has been most fascinated with the Mammoth in the defensive end.
“I’m most impressed by their team defense. They’ve been comfortably better at limiting chances against at 5-on-5 than last season, and a lot better limiting chances against on the penalty kill. The goaltending looks about like I expected it — a shade below average,” McCurdy said.
Offensively, the Mammoth haven’t been getting a large volume of shots, but that hasn’t been an issue with the way they’re converting chances. “If there’s a concern, it’ll be that the finishing touch is a shade high for the roster and might come down,” McCurdy said. “They’re also very score-affected: Chasing hard when losing and turtling when winning. Teams that go on deep playoff runs usually play more consistently across all score states.”
Vince Masi, a stats analyst for ESPN Research, wonders if regression is already starting for Utah, having gone through a stretch where they scored three or fewer goals in seven straight games.
“While they are controlling the 5-on-5 shot attempts at a good clip in the early going, they were dead last in 5-on-5 save percentage at .875,” said Masi, who suggests the Mammoth may be overworking Vejmelka.
“Since the return after the 4 Nations Face-Off in regular-season games, Vejmelka has played the most of any goalie in the league,” he said.
Is this sustainable?
In a word: probably.
Because the Mammoth are about to find out what they’re made of — one way or another.
Utah is riding its first extended losing streak of the season, having dropped three straight and five of its last six. Only one of those defeats was at home though, and the Mammoth are finally back in Salt Lake City for six of their next eight after almost three weeks on the road.
And it’s not like Utah has necessarily been bad. They just ran into typical early-season struggles, like going 0-for-13 on the power play when they were previously operating at 21.1% with the extra man. The Mammoth’s penalty kill, on the other hand, was a perfect 10-for-10 in the same stretch.
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Logan Cooley nets power-play goal
Logan Cooley nets power-play goal
Utah has all the talent it needs to be a contender this season. But there is still a learning curve that comes with winning, as the Mammoth have quickly discovered.
“When you go through as many road games as we played, I think you get worn down a little bit,” Armstrong said. “It’s kind of refreshing to come home, and it’s a little bit humbling to know that, hey, you won all those games in a row, but now you’re battling to get back on track. It’s a good league, and there’s a fine line between winning and losing, and we’ve got to find that line.”
First, there are things to fix, starting on special teams. While the Mammoth’s gaudy offensive stats from October were bound to level out as the league’s teams settled into November — and remembered how to play defense — there’s no reason Utah can’t adjust and be right back among the Central Division’s best clubs.
Vejmelka will be a significant part of the turnaround. He’s 1-3-0 of late, with an .831 SV% and 3.78 GAA. That’s not what Utah can expect from Vejmelka when he’s on point. As long as he’s able to steer out of the skid, it will keep Utah from wasting its solid defensive efforts (they were still averaging the fewest shots against in the league while racking up recent losses).
The famous American Thanksgiving deadline is looming. Teams in the playoff field at that point tend to still be in position at season’s end. This next run of games is Utah’s opportunity to prove itself. Their schedule features four teams not in the postseason picture now, and if the Mammoth can leverage their home-ice advantage (they are 4-1-0 this season at Delta Center) then Utah can show they were no flash in the pan.
Are the Anaheim Ducks for real?
What has changed since last season?
It has been seven seasons since the Ducks last waddled into the postseason, losing in the first round back in 2018. To timestamp this drought, that team had Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Kevin Bieksa and 37-year-old Ryan Miller on the roster.
Since then, the Ducks have been amassing young talent through the draft. Most of them — Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, Jackson LaCombe, Olen Zellweger, Pavel Mintyukov, Beckett Sennecke, Lukas Dostal — are the foundation for Anaheim’s rebuild. Some of them were eventually traded, like when the Ducks traded defenseman Jamie Drysdale to the Philadelphia Flyers for forward Cutter Gauthier, now a burgeoning star.
Powered by that young core, Anaheim saw a remarkable 21-point improvement in the standings year over year in 2024-25, but that was only good enough to place 12th in the Western Conference. Coach Greg Cronin was dismissed after two seasons. GM Pat Verbeek lured coach Joel Quenneville to Anaheim, and that might turn out to be one of the NHL offseason’s most significant moves.
Quenneville, 67, hadn’t coached in the NHL since resigning from the Florida Panthers in 2021 after an independent review by a law firm detailed how the Blackhawks organization failed to properly address allegations by player Kyle Beach that he was sexually assaulted by video coach Brad Aldrich during the team’s 2010 Stanley Cup run. Quenneville, who coached that team, was ineligible to work for other NHL teams until commissioner Gary Bettman lifted a ban on the coach and two former Blackhawks executives in July 2024.
Verbeek said at the time that Anaheim had done its due diligence on Quenneville. “Our findings are consistent with Joel’s account that he was not fully aware of the severity of what transpired in 2010. It is clear that Joel deeply regrets not following up with more questions at the time, has demonstrated meaningful personal growth and accountability, and has earned the opportunity to return to coaching,” he said in a statement.
The arrival of a three-time Stanley Cup-winning head coach had a transformative effect on the Ducks.
“The thing that really resonated was that Joel’s got a great resumé. He’s a winner. He has won three times as a head coach, one as an assistant coach,” Verbeek told ESPN on Monday. “So I think the instant respect was there, not only from the older guys but from the younger guys. They’re all hungry to win. Bringing Joel in from just that aspect alone has made a huge difference.
If Quenneville’s arrival didn’t signal that the Ducks were ready to turn the corner back to playoff contention, the rest of Verbeek’s offseason certainly did. The Ducks signed center Mikael Granlund away from Dallas (three years, $21 million). They traded goalie John Gibson (Detroit) and forward Trevor Zegras (Philadelphia), ending long-standing trade speculation about both. Perhaps most significantly, they traded for longtime New York Rangers winger Chris Kreider.
Verbeek knew Kreider well from his days in Tampa Bay’s front office, as the Lightning battled Kreider’s Rangers. He wanted a winger with speed that could improve the Ducks’ special teams, but he also wanted Kreider’s singular abilities around the crease.
“I’m not sure there’s a better guy in front of the net than him over the last seven or eight years,” Verbeek said.
One player that Verbeek consulted about Kreider: Defenseman Jacob Trouba, who was Kreider’s friend and teammate with the Rangers. It’s not often that one team brings in multiple players from an opponents’ leadership group, but that’s exactly what Anaheim did in trading for Trouba, who captained the Rangers, and Kreider, a 13-season veteran with the franchise.
Trouba, Kreider, forward Alex Killorn and defenseman Radko Gudas are part of a veteran core that Verbeek designed based on his own experiences as a player. He recalled how important veteran players were to his development as a young star with the 1980s New Jersey Devils, relying on the advice of goaltender Chico Resch and forward Mel Bridgman, who passed away on Nov. 8.
“I told our [veterans] that you have a huge opportunity to make such a huge impact on these young players. You have no idea how much these players are going to respect you,” he said.
He’s seen that in Kreider already. “He’s been a great example for a bunch of our other guys seeing the success that he’s had,” Verbeek said. “Guys want to emulate that.”
Key factor No. 1: Ducks fly together
The most notable beneficiary from the Ducks’ offseason moves and the maturation of their young stars has been their offense. They’re not just winning games; they’re scoring touchdowns.
Last season, Anaheim ranked 30th in the NHL in goals per game (2.65). Through 15 games this season, the Ducks were first in the NHL in scoring with an average of 4.13 goals per game. They put up seven goals in wins against the San Jose Sharks, Boston Bruins, Florida Panthers and Dallas Stars.
“We’re playing fast. We certainly have speed,” Verbeek said.
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Leo Carlsson scores power-play goal vs. Jets
Leo Carlsson scores power-play goal vs. Jets
The Ducks’ 5-on-5 play has improved across the board under Quenneville. They’re averaging 3.21 goals per 60 minutes, up from 2.36 last season. Their expected goals per 60 minutes (2.86), scoring chances percentage (48.4%) and high-danger shot attempts (46.7%) are all up from last season. Perhaps most importantly, their percentage of shot attempts has jumped from 45.9% last season to 50.9% this season so far.
“We’ve added speed and size. It’s made a difference in puck possession down in the offensive zone. Joel preaches it every single day to the younger guys: Puck possession, hang onto it and if we lose it, we’ve got to get it back fast. I think that has resonated well and the guys have taken to it,” Verbeek said. “They’ve been executing and they’ve been getting rewarded for that.”
Of course, it helps to have players that can execute. Carlsson was among the NHL’s top scorers through 15 games with 25 points (10 goals, 15 assists). Gauthier led the Ducks with 11 goals through 15 games. Kreider had a stretch of nine goals in 11 games, shooting a flabbergasting 32.1%. Veteran winger Troy Terry had 19 points through 15 games, while rookie Beckett Sennecke had 11 points.
Five of Kreider’s goals have come on the power play, which ranks in the NHL’s top 10 with a 23.7% conversion rate. Again, the word “improvement” doesn’t do the year-over-year jump for the Ducks justice: They were last in the NHL last season with a 11.8% power-play conversion rate.
The Ducks are dominating offensively. Defensively … well, it’s a work in progress.
Key factor No. 2: Lukas Dostal
Last season, the Ducks were 23rd in the NHL in goals against per game (3.18). That number could have been much worse. Anaheim was last in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (2.96) but were bailed out by the seventh best 5-on-5 goaltending last season, courtesy of Gibson and Dostal.
Quenneville immediately sought to improve the Ducks’ defensive structure this season. “He simplified our D-zone coverage. There’s a lot of support in how we defend,” Verbeek said.
The good news for the Ducks is that they’re able to score their way out of any problem so far this season. The bad news is that their 5-on-5 defense is that aforementioned problem. Anaheim has a 3.15 expected goals per 60 minutes through 15 games. Their scoring chances against is right around where it was last season.
The best news is that Dostal is now their primary goaltender, and he’s been nothing short of astounding in 12 games. He’s third in the NHL in goals saved above expected (9.6) and has a .908 save percentage. Dostal is facing over 28 shots per game on average. He has 1.6 wins above replacement so far, via Money Puck.
Dostal has been their last line of defense and, at times, the entirety of their defense. Anaheim is not near the top of their division without him.
What the analytics tell us
“They’ve been playing real chaos hockey,” McCurdy said.
McCurdy has seen the Ducks create a ton of scoring chances and give them up, too. But the results are better year over year.
“Last year at 5-on-5, they were the league’s worst defense and nearly the worst offense,” he said. “They’ve improved the two together for a net improvement of almost a goal per sixty minutes, just in chances.”
Kryshak, the data analyst behind Betalytics, sees Dostal’s Vezina Trophy-worthy play as the reason the Ducks can get away with “high-octane hockey” so far this season — to the benefit of their younger players.
“Their young players make mistakes but aren’t benched. They are given opportunities to learn and grow through them which is paying off for the likes of Beckett Sennecke and Olen Zelwegger,” she said.
She added that Anaheim’s core players are driving its offense.
“There is little doubt the Ducks have the ability to score. Leo Carlsson is tracking to be Sweden’s top center in Milan, Cutter Gauthier is generating shots at superstar levels, both Chris Kreider and Jacob Trouba look rejuvenated. It’s all coming together,” she said. “The Ducks’ ability to generate offense ranks fifth in the NHL at even strength, and their pace of play ranks second to Columbus, largely because of their ability to generate rush chances as one of the fastest teams in the NHL.”
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Cutter Gauthier completes first career hat trick for Ducks
Cutter Gauthier scores his first career hat trick for the Ducks vs. the Panthers.
Masi says the Ducks are generating “just a ridiculous amount of offense” this season, with historic precedence:
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In the last 30 years, only the 1995-96 and 2019-20 Pittsburgh Penguins scored seven goals in a game at least four times in their first 13 games of the season.
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Carlsson and Gauthier are just the sixth pair of 21-and-under teammates with 20 points in their first 15 games of the season. The rest of that list includes players like Wayne Gretzky and Paul Coffey (Oilers) and Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin (Penguins).
Entering this week, the Ducks were third in chances off the rush and off odd-man rushes, as well as high-danger chances.
So they can score. But is that enough?
“They are so much fun to watch, but you can’t be considered a true contender when you trade scoring chances at the level the Ducks do and are currently getting Vezina-level goaltending,” Kryshak said.
Is this sustainable?
McCurdy is perplexed.
It was clear that Quenneville would be an improvement behind the bench in terms of structure and that players like Carlsson were ready to level up. “I anticipated those things in the summer and they’re still outperforming even that,” McCurdy said. “It doesn’t seem like the kind of improvement that can last, just because of how unusual such a sudden improvement is historically. I don’t feel like I understand it very strongly.”
Masi is curious.
“Are they a PDO monster?” he asked, referencing the stat that combines a team’s shooting percentage with its save percentage and informally measures “luck” in the NHL.
“They have a 103.2 5-on-5 shot-plus-save percentage, which ranks third behind the Blackhawks and Canadiens,” he said.
Kryshak is skeptical.
“The Ducks are not a house of cards, but their reliance on Lukas Dostal is significant. Their play style is to trade chances, knowing that their goaltender is likely to be better than their opponents’ on any given night. If that is not the case, the Ducks will lose games 7-6 or 6-5 and so on,” she said.
But Verbeek is optimistic. The Ducks GM acknowledged that his team has some ground to make up defensively this season, but was confident they could.
“I think it’s about getting more comfortable. I expect this to be better in the next 15 to 20 games. And consequently taking another step in the last half of the season, the last 30 games,” he said. “When Joel and I talk, he’s super excited that he sees that every day is a process. Every day we’re getting better.”
“In some instances we’re very young. That’s why having the vets can kind of stabilize things when it gets a little Helter Skelter out,” the GM added. “Having a calming presence helps.”
The Ducks have shown enough improvement early in the season for this start not to be an aberration. But as noted several times here, their MVP is Lukas Dostal. They can outscore the defensive foibles of a young roster. They can’t outscore those issues without having Dostal as their elite safety net.
If he stays healthy and playing to his standards? There’s no reason the Ducks can fly into the postseason, perhaps a little ahead of their assumed schedule.
Sports
MLB Awards Week predictions, results: Will All-Star Game starters Skubal and Skenes win Cy Young Awards?
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Bradford Doolittle
The hot stove season is already burning, but even amid the roster shuffling for the 2026 season, we have one last bit of 2025 business: handing out the major awards.
The most prestigious are the four major honors determined by BBWAA voting. These awards will have a lasting impact on baseball history books and Hall of Fame résumés.
On Monday, Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz was unanimously selected as the American League Rookie of the Year, and Atlanta Braves rookie catcher Drake Baldwin earned the National League honor.
Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy and Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt each won their second consecutive Manager of the Year award on Tuesday.
Here is the remaining schedule (awards are announced starting at 7 ET each night on MLB Network):
Wednesday: Cy Young Awards
Thursday: MVP Awards
MLB will also hold its annual awards show in Las Vegas on Thursday, during which it will recognize its All-MLB squads, the Hank Aaron Awards for each league’s best offensive performer, the Comeback Player of the Year Awards, the Mariano Rivera/Trevor Hoffman Awards for the top relievers, and the Edgar Martinez Awards for best designated hitters. The Executive of the Year Award will also be announced.
I’ll be reacting to each night’s awards announcement throughout the week, but in the meantime, here are some opening comments and some brief reaction to the honors that have been awarded.
Below, we list the three finalists in each of the remaining categories, with what you need to know before the results are announced and my picks to take home the hardware. We’ll update each section with news and analysis as the winners are revealed.
Jump to:
MVP: AL | NL
Cy Young: AL | NL
Rookie of the Year: AL | NL
Manager of the Year: AL | NL
American League Cy Young
Finalists:
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
My pick: Skubal
Skubal is well positioned to become the AL’s first repeat Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez in 2000. He might just be getting started. The dominant lefty didn’t repeat as a pitching Triple Crown winner, but he posted a lower ERA (2.21 to 2.39) and struck out more batters (241 to 228) than he did while winning the Cy Young Award in 2024. For the second straight year, he led the AL in pitching bWAR, FIP and ERA+.
That’s a tough résumé for Crochet to top, but he came pretty close, leading the AL in innings (205⅓) and strikeouts (255) and beating Skubal in wins (18 to 13). Skubal was a little more consistent in terms of average game score (64.2 to 62.6). Skubal really didn’t rout Crochet in any key area, but he beat him just the same in most columns.
Brown is a worthy No. 3, but for him, it’s the same story: He hung with the big two in most areas but didn’t top them. Still, it was another season of improvement for Brown, whose ERA over the past three seasons has gone from 5.09 to 3.49 to 2.43.
Cy Young must-reads:
The extraordinary mystery of the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal
National League Cy Young
Finalists:
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
My pick: Sanchez
My AXE system wasn’t particularly emphatic about the No. 3 pitcher in the NL Cy Young column, so Yamamoto is as good a pick there as any. We start with him because his dominant postseason run is fresh in our minds. But that doesn’t factor in here. Maybe it should, but it doesn’t. In any event, I’d have gone with Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta as my No. 3.
Regardless of the third finalist, during the regular season, Skenes and Sanchez gradually separated themselves from the pack, especially after Sanchez’s teammate Zack Wheeler was injured. They are the easy top two but picking between them isn’t that easy.
Sanchez has the edge in volume — 202 innings to 187⅔, in part because the Pirates eased up on Skenes toward the end. Indeed, failure to do so would have been malpractice. Despite that, Skenes struck out more batters (216 to 212), posted a better ERA (1.97 to 2.50) and led the league in ERA+, WHIP and FIP. The extra 14⅓ innings allowed Sanchez a narrow win in bWAR (8.0 to 7.7).
In the end, their runs saved against average is a virtual dead heat: 53 for Sanchez against 52 for Skenes. Thus for me it comes down to context. Sanchez put up his season for a division champ, Skenes for a cellar dweller. That is not Skenes’ fault, but we’ve got to separate these pitchers somehow. Sanchez’s season was worth 3.2% championship probability added against Skenes’ 0.5%. That’s the clincher for me.
But I think Skenes will win the vote.
Cy Young must-reads:
How young aces Skenes, Skubal dominate
American League MVP
Finalists:
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
My pick: Raleigh
What to know: We’re going to dive deep into the riveting race between Judge and Raleigh later this week. According to my AXE rating, which is an index that expresses the consensus of the leading bottom-line metrics, the winner is Judge (164 to 150) and it’s not particularly close.
Despite the easy statistical case for Judge, I see this as a case in which the narrative and intangible elements overwhelm the metrics. And that’s not to undersell Raleigh’s metrics, which are more than MVP-worthy. But despite another historic season from Judge, I’m going with Raleigh.
Again, we’ll get into the nitty-gritty of the numbers later, but the soft factors that swing my thinking are these: Raleigh’s 60-homer season is the stuff of science fiction when viewed through the lens of what’s expected from every-day catchers. It not only shattered the single-season mark for the position, but it broke Mickey Mantle’s record for homers by a switch-hitter. Mickey freaking Mantle. And Raleigh’s a (darn good) catcher!
Raleigh did all of this as the defensive anchor and clubhouse leader on a division champion. There aren’t many seasons when I’d pick someone as MVP over the 2025 version of Aaron Judge, but this is one of them. Sure, I’m a stat guy, so this feels like a departure from that foundation, but sometimes a narrative is just too compelling to ignore.
Finally, poor Jose Ramirez. This is Ramirez’s sixth time landing in the AL’s top five in MVP balloting, and eighth time in the top 10. But he’s not going to win. Ramirez just keeps churning out the same great season every year. It’s just that there has always been someone a little greater each season.
That being said: Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. should have been the third finalist. He’ll be back.
MVP must-reads:
What it’s really like facing Aaron Judge
Can Yankees build a title-winning team around Aaron Judge?
‘It’s something that’s never been done’: Inside Cal Raleigh’s road to HR history
Why the Mariners are built to last after a crushing ALCS loss
National League MVP
Finalists:
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
Juan Soto, New York Mets
My pick: Ohtani
What to know: Together, the three NL MVP finalists logged 63% of their starts at designated hitter. Most of the non-DH starts came from Soto, whose defensive metrics continue to suggest a future of increased DH time. Still, the days of DHs being locked out of the MVP chase are clearly over.
Ohtani was the first exclusive DH to win an MVP last year, though he’d won it before while serving as an every-day DH in addition to pitching. He logged 1.1 bWAR this season for his 47 innings on the mound, which could have proved to be a tiebreaker if he and the other finalists were close. But it’s Ohtani all the way.
As hitters, all three used up a similar number of outs as Ohtani, who had at least a 20-run advantage in runs created over both. Shockingly, it was Soto who had the best baserunning numbers, thanks to his 38-steal breakout and Ohtani deemphasizing that part of his game. But Ohtani provided easily the most defensive value with his pitching, while Soto’s defense was a negative and Schwarber was almost exclusively a DH.
Basically, everything Schwarber and Soto did, Ohtani did better — and he pitched well. Even Schwarber’s league-leading RBI count (132) is trumped by Ohtani’s decided edge in WPA, a category in which he led the league. It’s Ohtani’s award, again, and it will be No. 4 for him. Only Barry Bonds has won more.
Not for nothing, you know which position player posted the highest bWAR total? That would be a nonfinalist: Arizona’s Geraldo Perdomo (7.0 bWAR), though he did finish behind Ohtani when the latter’s pitching bWAR is added.
MVP must-reads:
2025 MLB most exciting player bracket: Ohtani, Judge, more
The improbability of Shohei Ohtani’s greatness
Schwarber, All-Star swing-off captures the beauty of baseball
Inside Juan Soto’s wild first Mets season
Juan Soto, the showman, finally showing up for Mets
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (unanimous)
Final tally: Nick Kurtz 210 (30 first-place votes), Jacob Wilson 107, Roman Anthony 72, Noah Cameron 54, Colson Montgomery 23, Carlos Narvaez 21, Jack Leiter 6, Will Warren 5, Luke Keaschall 3, Braydon Fisher 2, Shane Smith 2, Cam Smith 2, Chandler Simpson 1, Luis Morales 1, Jasson Dominguez 1
Doolittle’s pick: Kurtz
Takeaway: Before the season, Kurtz’s name wasn’t near the top of the list for AL Rookie of the Year candidates. He didn’t lack hype — he was viewed by many as the Athletics’ top prospect — but his meteoric rise was unexpected.
Kurtz, the fourth pick in 2024, played just 12 minor league games and another 13 in last year’s Arizona Fall League before this season. So, it made sense that he began the season in Triple-A, where he posted a 1.000-plus OPS, which he has done every step of the way.
Kurtz debuted in the majors April 23, and 117 games later, his 1.002 rookie-season OPS ranks as the fifth best for a rookie (minimum 480 plate appearances) behind Aaron Judge, Ted Williams, Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun. But none of those greats matched Kurtz’s accomplishment against the Astros on July 25, when he hit four homers, finished with six hits and tied Shawn Green’s big league record for total bases in a game (19).
The ninth Rookie of the Year in Athletics history, Kurtz’s slash line (.290/.383/.619) at 22 is evidence that he’s the complete package at the plate and still might improve. But even if he doesn’t, and this is what he is going forward, he’s one of the best hitters in the majors.
The other two finalists — Anthony and Wilson — were both high on preseason lists for the award and validated that anticipation with fine rookie seasons. Wilson’s .311 average ranked third in the majors. He was one of seven qualifying hitters in the majors to hit at least .300. Anthony lived up to massive hype upon his arrival at Fenway Park, but he suffered an oblique injury Sept. 2, ending his chances of overtaking Kurtz for the award.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (126 AXE, finalist)
2. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (118, finalist)
3. (tie) Roman Anthony, Red Sox (115, finalist)
Noah Cameron, Royals (115)
Colson Montgomery, White Sox (115)
6. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (110)
7. Shane Smith, White Sox (109)
ROY must-reads:
Passan Awards: Nick Kurtz wins ‘Individual Performance of the Year’
How a swing tweak has Red Sox rookie Roman Anthony rolling
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves
Final tally: Drake Baldwin 183 (21 first-place votes), Cade Horton 139 (9), Caleb Durbin 69, Isaac Collins 62, Daylen Lile 17, Agustin Ramirez 10, Chad Patrick 9, Jakob Marsee 8, Jack Dreyer 4, Matt Shaw 4, Jacob Misiorowski 2, Nolan McLean 2, Heriberto Hernandez 1
Doolittle’s pick: Baldwin
Takeaway: The voters favored Baldwin’s full-season production over Horton’s remarkable second half. It was a tough call, but Baldwin established himself as one of the game’s outstanding young catchers. Baldwin hit .274/.341/.469 over 124 games, numbers strong enough to earn him regular DH time on days he wasn’t catching. That’s key, because Atlanta still has veteran Sean Murphy under contract for three more years.
Like his AL counterpart Kurtz, Baldwin was considered his organization’s top prospect by many when the season began, but he was expected to make his big league debut late in 2025 or in 2026. Baldwin got his chance when Murphy suffered a cracked rib in spring training. The Braves had several journeyman backups in camp, but Baldwin was so impressive that he started behind the plate on Opening Day.
Baldwin is the first catcher to win NL Rookie of the Year since Buster Posey in 2010. The only other Braves catcher to win the award was Earl Williams (1971), though Williams divided his time between catching and the infield.
If Horton had a first half that matched his post-All-Star-break performance, he might have been a unanimous pick and even entered the Cy Young debate. In 12 second-half starts, Horton went 8-1 with a 1.03 ERA, allowing just 33 hits while striking out 54 over 61⅓ innings. He allowed one run or fewer in 11 of those outings. Horton’s efforts helped the Chicago Cubs, who were scrambling to make the postseason with a short-handed rotation. This shows up in his probability stats: Horton ranked 12th among all NL pitchers in win probability added and 13th in championship probability added.
Durbin was a vital cog in the Brewers’ run to a franchise-best 97 wins. He was also one of several rookies in Milwaukee who were key contributors to the Brewers’ run to the NLCS. If “Brewers rookie” was an option on the ballot, “Brewers rookie” should have won.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Drake Baldwin, Braves (115 AXE, finalist)
2. Caleb Durbin, Brewers (113, finalist)
3. Cade Horton, Cubs (112, finalist)
4. Isaac Collins, Brewers (111)
5. Chad Patrick, Brewers (110)
6. Jakob Marsee, Marlins (109)
7. Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates (108)
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Stephen Vogt, Cleveland Guardians
Final tally: Vogt 113 (28 first-place votes), John Schneider 91 (10), Dan Wilson 50 (2), Alex Cora 7 (1), A.J. Hinch 6, Joe Espada 3
Doolittle’s pick: Schneider
Takeaway: The AL Manager of the Year race remained murky to me up to and including the day that awards finalists were announced. EARL, an algorithm that seeks to create order out of the chaotic process of rating managers, was all over the place through the season. Hinch, who was favored in many of the betting markets until he turned out to not be a finalist, was submarined by his team’s drastic midseason fall-off (though he should have received credit for side-stepping a complete collapse and earning a playoff spot).
That left last year’s winner, Vogt, whose Guardians made a stirring run to overtake the Tigers in the AL Central, as well as Wilson, skipper of the AL West champion Mariners, and Schneider, who guided the Blue Jays to the East crown. In the end, the voters were picking between the AL’s three division-winning managers.
Worst to first is always a great narrative — and perhaps the best argument in favor for Schneider after the Blue Jays rebounded from 2024’s last-place finish to win Toronto’s first division title in a decade, one that was validated with a postseason run all the way to extra innings of Game 7 of the World Series. Schneider was strong in wins versus Pythagorean-based expectation (94 wins for a win expectation of 88.5) and record in one- and two-run contests (43-30).
But Vogt beat him in both areas, and the same held true in terms of preseason expectations. Toronto beat its preseason over/under consensus by 10 wins, the fourth-best performance in the majors. Third best? Vogt, at 10.5. Vogt becomes the fourth manager to win back-to-back awards, minutes after the Murphy in the NL became the third.
Worst to first: Great story. Coming back from 15½ games back on July 8? Even better.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3 EARL)
2. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8, finalist)
3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0)
4. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2, finalist)
5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103.5, finalist)
6. Matt Quatraro, Royals (101.8)
7. Mark Kotsay, Athletics (99.6)
Note: EARL is a metric that looks at how a team’s winning percentage varies from expectations generated by projections, run differential and one-run record. While attributing these measures to managerial performance is presumptive, the metric does tend to track well with the annual balloting.
Manager of the Year must-reads:
The magic chemistry of the Blue Jays clubhouse
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers
Final tally: Murphy 141 (27 first-place votes), Terry Francona 49 (2), Rob Thomson 32 (1), Craig Counsell 24, Clayton McCullough 22, Torey Lovullo 1, Mike Shildt 1
Doolittle’s pick: Murphy
Takeaway: The measures that feed EARL anointed Murphy pretty early in the season. Though the Brewers were a division winner in 2024, when Murphy won the award in his first full season as a big league manager, they were pegged for a .500-ish baseline entering the season. Instead, Milwaukee raced to a franchise record, a 17-win surplus against expectation that was the most in the majors. (McCullough’s Marlins were plus-15, hence his presence in the EARL leaderboard below.)
Murphy creates a fun, positive clubhouse atmosphere, keeping things light when it’s warranted, and getting heavy when it’s needed. He treats everyone the same, from the journeyman roster fill-in to franchise cornerstone Christian Yelich, not to mention everyone else in the great ecosystem of baseball that comes across his path on a daily basis. His skill set in building an upbeat culture doesn’t get enough attention — it’s an essential trait for a club that’s always iterating its roster.
One sign of a good manager is the ability to integrate rookies. Well, this season Milwaukee easily led the majors in rookie WAR, even as the Brewers chased another division crown. They played an exciting brand of offensive baseball that featured plenty of action on the basepaths and adherence to situational execution. They deployed one of the game’s top defenses. All of these things are hallmarks of a well-managed squad.
The Brewers remain perhaps baseball’s best-run franchise, a distinction that requires aptitude from the front office to the dugout, where Murphy presides. He becomes the first back-to-back NL Manager of the Year winner since Bobby Cox (2004-05), who did it with the Braves. The only other back-to-back winner was Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash, the AL’s honoree in 2020-21. Murphy, who managed San Diego on an interim basis in 2015, is the first skipper to win in his first two full seasons.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL, finalist)
2. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)
3. Oliver Marmol, Cardinals (106.1)
4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9, finalist)
5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)
6. Mike Shildt, Padres (103.2)
7. Terry Francona, Reds (101.7 finalist)
Manager of the Year must-reads:
Welcome to ‘Milwaukee Community College’: How the Brewers built a $115 million juggernaut
Why Terry Francona, Bruce Bochy came back to managing in MLB
Other awards
Just a run-through of my picks, leaving aside the Comeback Player category, which is tough to attack analytically:
Executive of the Year: Matt Arnold, Milwaukee Brewers. I have a metric I use to track organizational performance. It looks at things such as the performance of acquired players, organizational records and the value produced by rookies. Arnold’s club topped the charts. Arnold won this award last year, so we’ll find out if there is an Arnold fatigue at work here. If Arnold doesn’t win, I’d lean toward Seattle’s Jerry Dipoto.
All-MLB: My All-MVP first team, courtesy of AXE:
1B: Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
2B: Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs
SS: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
3B: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
C: Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
OF: Juan Soto, New York Mets
OF: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
OF: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
DH: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
LHP: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
RHP: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
RP: Aroldis Chapman, Boston Red Sox
Hank Aaron Award: Aaron Judge (AL, New York Yankees); Shohei Ohtani (NL, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Mariano Rivera Award: Aroldis Chapman, Boston Red Sox
Trevor Hoffman Award: Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
Gold Gloves: The winners have been announced and can be found here. My quibbles: I would have gone with Toronto’s Alejandro Kirk at AL catcher over Detroit’s Dillon Dingler. On the NL side, I’d have liked to find a spot for Washington’s Jacob Young, but the insistence on LF/CF/RF distinctions ruled that out. All in all, another pretty solid job in an awards category that used to be rife with absurdities.
Inspirational thought of the week:
I’m riding slow in my Prius
All-leather, tinted windows, you can’t see us!
Everybody’s trying to park you can feel the tension
I’m in electric mode, can’t even hear the engine
Just then I saw a spot open up
My timing’s perfect! I’m creeping up …
But then this other dude try to steal it
Going the wrong way!
“Hey man I’ve had a long day!”
It’s getting real in the Whole Foods parking lot!
I got my skill and you know it gets sparked a lot
— “It’s Getting Real in the Whole Foods Parking Lot,” DJ Spider
Here at Bottom 10 Headquarters, located in the massive audio warehouse where Kirk Herbstreit keeps all of the recordings of the “AAAAAWWWWWW”s that people release when they see Peter the dog, we took a look at the calendar hanging on the front of our refrigerator and realized … hang on … we realized that it’s not 2008 like this calendar says … OK … here’s the new one … let’s start over.
We looked at the calendar hanging on the front of our refrigerator and realized there are only three weekends remaining in the 2025 college football season. Or, if you live in the world of #MACtion like we do, only three more weekends plus three more weeks of Tuesday and Wednesday games played between banks of plowed snow.
That means stuff is about to get real. Sure, the hoity-toity top 10 will tell you it’s all about the CFP. But around here, it’s about the BFP, the Bottom 10 Football Playoff. And once we wake up Charlie Weis and get our internet dialed back up, we too shall be shaping up a bracket that shall determine a champion. The real champion. The champion of life. Or, actually, Life. The board game. Where the gold revenge squares give you the option to “sue for damages” with the goal of hitting “retire in style” or “retire to the country to become a philosopher.”
And now it suddenly dawns on us that Brian Kelly and his lawyers must like board games.
With apologies to former Ohio back David Board, former Idaho receiver Tom Gamelin, as well as Georgia State receiver Keron Milton, Air Force lineman Brian Bradley and Steve Harvey, here are the post-Week 11 Bottom 10 rankings.
The Minuetmen are the nation’s only remaining winless team, but the final three weeks of their #MACtion revenge reunion tour would seem to provide two solid chances to taste victory before tasting the Thanksgiving turkey, beginning with a Wednesday night Pillow Fight of the Week of the Year Mega Bowl visit from Bottom 10 Wait Lister Northern Ill-ugh-noise, which airs at 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU. The ESPN Analytics Ouija board says UMass has a 21.8% chance of victory, its best shot for the rest of the season.
During this week’s traditional post-weekend #Bottom10Lobbying deluge on social media, I heard from a Nevada grad named @mugtang who wrote: “Nevada would lose by 3 touchdowns to UMass! Rank us #1 in the bottom 10. Or would it be #136?” In related news, after reading his tweet, I went to the store, bought some Tang drink mix and drank it from a mug. With rum in it. Like the astronauts used to do.
The Panthers lost last week at Coastal Carolina 40-27. Next, they host Marshall, which is convenient for fans of the Thundering Herd, who could just follow the Georgia State bus as it left town because it is a natural law that at any given time, half the population of West Virginia is at Myrtle Beach.
The Niners travelled Down East to EC-Yew and lost 48-22. In their defense, they weren’t themselves because they were already testing out what it’s like to play covered in bubble wrap and rubber boat bumpers, preparing for their Week 14 trip to Georgia.
Legend has it that after the angel Moroni showed Joseph Smith the golden plates upon which the Mormon Church was founded, he also warned Smith to make sure to heed the oft-forgotten inscription located on the scratched up backside of the plates: “BEWARE THE COVETED FIFTH SPOT LEST IT BITE YOU IN THE BEHIND IN LUBBOCK.”
Sources tell Bottom 10 JortsCenter that BC and UMass are secretly looking to play a Bottom 10 Toilet Bowl title game on Christmas Eve morning, to be held in the parking lot of the Mass Turnpike Natick Service Plaza, sponsored by Dunkin’, D’Angelo’s sandwiches and Vinny’s Vape and Spray Tan. Go Sox.
Hear me out. A reality show where all the college football coaches who have been fired this season meet at a Buffalo Wild Wings and watch games together. Or better yet, they do it at Mike Gundy’s ranch.
It’s always tough when you didn’t know what you wish you’d known at one time, but it felt better because you thought you knew plenty about a time that was still to come, only to see the time still to come not be what you thought you knew and make that first thing you didn’t know at the time feel like even more of a missed unknown opportunity. See: We didn’t realize how big the Week 3 game between MTSU and Nevada was, and now the game we thought was going to be big — MTSU vs. Sam Houston State on Nov. 22 — isn’t as large as it once was. Why?
Because of what the Beavs just did. Or, actually, what they failed to do. The Other OSU spent the first two months of the season in these rankings before departing thanks to two straight wins, over Lafayette and fellow 2Pac members Warshington State. It was like the scene in “The Dark Knight Rises” when Bruce Wayne climbed out of that underground desert prison he’d been banished to by Bane … only this time when he got to the top, Bane was waiting to step on his fingers. And who is Bane in this Batman Bottom 10 metaphor?
(For full Bane effect, read the next lines with your hand cupped over your mouth while doing the accent of a shouting cockney actor who is constipated, while wearing a Bearkats hoodie.) “Kurious how you konkluded this kontrived eskape would be sukcessful, Kaped Krusader! Now we kome for you, Blue Raiders!”
Waiting List: Livin’ on Tulsa Time, Colora-duh State, UTEPid, Arkansaw Fightin’ Petrinos, South Alabama Redundancies, Northern Ill-ugh-noise, billable hours.
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Jake Trotter
The NCAA has placed Michigan State football on three years of probation for violations that occurred under Mel Tucker’s tenure as coach.
The violations occurred due to the participation of three ineligible players. Now, the Spartans will vacate all 14 wins from the past three seasons, a school spokesperson confirmed. That includes all five wins last season during Jonathan Smith’s first year as coach.
The three players are no longer with the program, the spokesperson said.
Michigan State will also be penalized $30,000 plus 1.5% of the football program’s budget. For the 2024 season, that budget was $58.6 million, according to figures provided by Knight Commission on Intercollegiate Athletics.
The Spartans will also face restrictions on official and unofficial visits, recruiting communications, recruiting person days, and off-campus recruiting contacts and evaluations over the probationary period.
The school released a statement saying it negotiated a resolution with the NCAA to minimize the penalties on the current team.
The NCAA handed Tucker, former Michigan State general manager Saeed Khalif and former assistant coach Brandon Jordan show-cause penalties. Tucker was given a three-year order. The NCAA said Tucker “failed to adequately monitor his program.” Khalif (six years) and Jordan (five years) were given longer penalties for knowingly providing impermissible recruiting inducements, according to the NCAA. The three cannot coach in college until their show-cause orders end.
Michigan State fired Tucker for cause in 2023 after he was accused of sexual harassment.
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