MLB Awards Week predictions, results: Murphy, Vogt take Manager of the Year awards
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Bradford Doolittle
The hot stove season is already burning, but even amid the roster shuffling for the 2026 season, we have one last bit of 2025 business: handing out the major awards.
The most prestigious are the four major honors determined by BBWAA voting. These awards will have a lasting impact on baseball history books and Hall of Fame résumés.
On Monday, Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz was unanimously selected as the American League Rookie of the Year, and Atlanta Braves rookie catcher Drake Baldwin earned the National League honor.
Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy and Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt each won their second consecutive Manager of the Year award on Tuesday.
Here is the remaining schedule (awards are announced starting at 7 ET each night on MLB Network):
Wednesday: Cy Young Awards
Thursday: MVP Awards
MLB will also hold its annual awards show in Las Vegas on Thursday, during which it will recognize its All-MLB squads, the Hank Aaron Awards for each league’s best offensive performer, the Comeback Player of the Year Awards, the Mariano Rivera/Trevor Hoffman Awards for the top relievers, and the Edgar Martinez Awards for best designated hitters. The Executive of the Year Award will also be announced.
I’ll be reacting to each night’s awards announcement throughout the week, but in the meantime, here are some opening comments and some brief reaction to the honors that have been awarded.
Below, we list the three finalists in each of the big-four categories, with what you need to know before the results are announced and my picks to take home the hardware. We’ll update each section with news and analysis as the winners are revealed.
Jump to:
MVP: AL | NL
Cy Young: AL | NL
Rookie of the Year: AL | NL
Manager of the Year: AL | NL
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers
Final tally: Murphy 141 (27 first-place votes), Terry Francona 49 (2), Rob Thomson 32 (1), Craig Counsell 24, Clayton McCullough 22, Torey Lovullo 1, Mike Shildt 1
Doolittle’s pick: Murphy
Takeaway: The measures that feed EARL anointed Murphy pretty early in the season. Though the Brewers were a division winner in 2024, when Murphy won the award in his first full season as a big league manager, they were pegged for a .500-ish baseline entering the season. Instead, Milwaukee raced to a franchise record, a 17-win surplus against expectation that was the most in the majors. (McCullough’s Marlins were plus-15, hence his presence in the EARL leaderboard below.)
Murphy creates a fun, positive clubhouse atmosphere, keeping things light when it’s warranted, and getting heavy when it’s needed. He treats everyone the same, from the journeyman roster fill-in to franchise cornerstone Christian Yelich, not to mention everyone else in the great ecosystem of baseball that comes across his path on a daily basis. His skill set in building an upbeat culture doesn’t get enough attention — it’s an essential trait for a club that’s always iterating its roster.
One sign of a good manager is the ability to integrate rookies. Well, this season Milwaukee easily led the majors in rookie WAR, even as the Brewers chased another division crown. They played an exciting brand of offensive baseball that featured plenty of action on the basepaths and adherence to situational execution. They deployed one of the game’s top defenses. All of these things are hallmarks of a well-managed squad.
The Brewers remain perhaps baseball’s best-run franchise, a distinction that requires aptitude from the front office to the dugout, where Murphy presides. He becomes the first back-to-back NL Manager of the Year winner since Bobby Cox (2004-05), who did it with the Braves. The only other back-to-back winner was Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash, the AL’s honoree in 2020-21. Murphy, who managed San Diego on an interim basis in 2015, is the first skipper to win in his first two full seasons.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Pat Murphy, Brewers (113.7 EARL, finalist)
2. Clayton McCullough, Marlins (106.9)
3. Oliver Marmol, Cardinals (106.1)
4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (103.9, finalist)
5. Craig Counsell, Cubs (103.4)
6. Mike Shildt, Padres (103.2)
7. Terry Francona, Reds (101.7 finalist)
Note: EARL is a metric that looks at how a team’s winning percentage varies from expectations generated by projections, run differential and one-run record. While attributing these measures to managerial performance is presumptive, the metric does tend to track well with the annual balloting.
Manager of the Year must-reads:
Welcome to ‘Milwaukee Community College’: How the Brewers built a $115 million juggernaut
Why Terry Francona, Bruce Bochy came back to managing in MLB
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Stephen Vogt, Cleveland Guardians
Final tally: Vogt 113 (28 first-place votes), John Schneider 91 (10), Dan Wilson 50 (2), Alex Cora 7 (1), A.J. Hinch 6, Joe Espada 3
Doolittle’s pick: Schneider
Takeaway: The AL Manager of the Year race remained murky to me up to and including the day that awards finalists were announced. EARL, an algorithm that seeks to create order out of the chaotic process of rating managers, was all over the place through the season. Hinch, who was favored in many of the betting markets until he turned out to not be a finalist, was submarined by his team’s drastic midseason fall-off (though he should have received credit for side-stepping a complete collapse and earning a playoff spot).
That left last year’s winner, Vogt, whose Guardians made a stirring run to overtake the Tigers in the AL Central, as well as Wilson, skipper of the AL West champion Mariners, and Schneider, who guided the Blue Jays to the East crown. In the end, the voters were picking between the AL’s three division-winning managers.
Worst to first is always a great narrative — and perhaps the best argument in favor for Schneider after the Blue Jays rebounded from 2024’s last-place finish to win Toronto’s first division title in a decade, one that was validated with a postseason run all the way to extra innings of Game 7 of the World Series. Schneider was strong in wins versus Pythagorean-based expectation (94 wins for a win expectation of 88.5) and record in one- and two-run contests (43-30).
But Vogt beat him in both areas, and the same held true in terms of preseason expectations. Toronto beat its preseason over/under consensus by 10 wins, the fourth-best performance in the majors. Third best? Vogt, at 10.5. Vogt becomes the fourth manager to win back-to-back awards, minutes after the Murphy in the NL became the third.
Worst to first: Great story. Coming back from 15½ games back on July 8? Even better.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. A.J. Hinch, Tigers (108.3, EARL)
2. John Schneider, Blue Jays (107.8, finalist)
3. Joe Espada, Astros (107.0)
4. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (105.2, finalist)
5. Dan Wilson, Mariners (103.5, finalist)
6. Matt Quatraro, Royals (101.8)
7. Mark Kotsay, Athletics (99.6)
Manager of the Year must-reads:
The magic chemistry of the Blue Jays clubhouse
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (unanimous)
Final tally: Nick Kurtz 210 (30 first-place votes), Jacob Wilson 107, Roman Anthony 72, Noah Cameron 54, Colson Montgomery 23, Carlos Narvaez 21, Jack Leiter 6, Will Warren 5, Luke Keaschall 3, Braydon Fisher 2, Shane Smith 2, Cam Smith 2, Chandler Simpson 1, Luis Morales 1, Jasson Dominguez 1
Doolittle’s pick: Kurtz
Takeaway: Before the season, Kurtz’s name wasn’t near the top of the list for AL Rookie of the Year candidates. He didn’t lack hype — he was viewed by many as the Athletics’ top prospect — but his meteoric rise was unexpected.
Kurtz, the fourth pick in 2024, played just 12 minor league games and another 13 in last year’s Arizona Fall League before this season. So, it made sense that he began the season in Triple-A, where he posted a 1.000-plus OPS, which he has done every step of the way.
Kurtz debuted in the majors April 23, and 117 games later, his 1.002 rookie-season OPS ranks as the fifth best for a rookie (minimum 480 plate appearances) behind Aaron Judge, Ted Williams, Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun. But none of those greats matched Kurtz’s accomplishment against the Houston Astros on July 25, when he hit four homers, finished with six hits and tied Shawn Green’s big league record for total bases in a game (19).
The ninth Rookie of the Year in Athletics history, Kurtz’s slash line (.290/.383/.619) at 22 is evidence that he’s the complete package at the plate and still might improve. But even if he doesn’t, and this is what he is going forward, he’s one of the best hitters in the majors.
The other two finalists — Roman Anthony and Jacob Wilson — were both high on preseason lists for the award and validated that anticipation with fine rookie seasons. Wilson’s .311 average ranked third in the majors. He was one of seven qualifying hitters in the majors to hit at least .300. Anthony lived up to massive hype upon his arrival at Fenway Park, but he suffered an oblique injury Sept. 2, ending his chances of overtaking Kurtz for the award.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (126 AXE)
2. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (118)
3. (tie) Roman Anthony, Boston Red Sox (115)
Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals (115)
Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox (115)
6. Carlos Narvaez, Boston Red Sox (110)
7. Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox (109)
Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference), with 100 representing the MLB average.
ROY must-reads:
Passan Awards: Nick Kurtz wins ‘Individual Performance of the Year’
How a swing tweak has Red Sox rookie Roman Anthony rolling
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves
Final tally: Drake Baldwin 183 (21 first-place votes), Cade Horton 139 (9), Caleb Durbin 69, Isaac Collins 62, Daylen Lile 17, Agustin Ramirez 10, Chad Patrick 9, Jakob Marsee 8, Jack Dreyer 4, Matt Shaw 4, Jacob Misiorowski 2, Nolan McLean 2, Heriberto Hernandez 1
Doolittle’s pick: Baldwin
Takeaway: The voters favored Baldwin’s full-season production over Horton’s remarkable second half. It was a tough call, but Baldwin established himself as one of the game’s outstanding young catchers. Baldwin hit .274/.341/.469 over 124 games, numbers strong enough to earn him regular DH time on days he wasn’t catching. That’s key, because Atlanta still has veteran Sean Murphy under contract for three more years.
Like his AL counterpart Kurtz, Baldwin was considered his organization’s top prospect by many when the season began, but he was expected to make his big league debut late in 2025 or in 2026. Baldwin got his chance when Murphy suffered a cracked rib in spring training. The Braves had several journeyman backups in camp, but Baldwin was so impressive that he started behind the plate on Opening Day.
Baldwin is the first catcher to win NL Rookie of the Year since Buster Posey in 2010. The only other Braves catcher to win the award was Earl Williams (1971), though Williams divided his time between catching and the infield.
If Horton had a first half that matched his post-All-Star-break performance, he might have been a unanimous pick and even entered the Cy Young debate. In 12 second-half starts, Horton went 8-1 with a 1.03 ERA, allowing just 33 hits while striking out 54 over 61⅓ innings. He allowed one run or fewer in 11 of those outings. Horton’s efforts helped the Chicago Cubs, who were scrambling to make the postseason with a short-handed rotation. This shows up in his probability stats: Horton ranked 12th among all NL pitchers in win probability added and 13th in championship probability added.
Caleb Durbin was a vital cog in the Milwaukee Brewers‘ run to a franchise-best 97 wins. He was also one of several rookies in Milwaukee who were key contributors to the Brewers’ run to the NLCS. If “Brewers rookie” was an option on the ballot, “Brewers rookie” should have won.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (115)
2. Caleb Durbin, Milwaukee Brewers (113)
3. Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs (112)
4. Isaac Collins, Milwaukee Brewers (111)
5. Chad Patrick, Milwaukee Brewers (110)
6. Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (109)
7. Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates (108)
American League MVP
Finalists:
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
My pick: Raleigh
What to know: We’re going to dive deep into the riveting race between Judge and Raleigh later this week. According to my AXE rating, which is an index that expresses the consensus of the leading bottom-line metrics, the winner is Judge (164 to 150) and it’s not particularly close.
Despite the easy statistical case for Judge, I see this as a case in which the narrative and intangible elements overwhelm the metrics. And that’s not to undersell Raleigh’s metrics, which are more than MVP-worthy. But despite another historic season from Judge, I’m going with Raleigh.
Again, we’ll get into the nitty-gritty of the numbers later, but the soft factors that swing my thinking are these: Raleigh’s 60-homer season is the stuff of science fiction when viewed through the lens of what’s expected from every-day catchers. It not only shattered the single-season mark for the position, but it broke Mickey Mantle’s record for homers by a switch-hitter. Mickey freaking Mantle. And Raleigh’s a (darn good) catcher!
Raleigh did all of this as the defensive anchor and clubhouse leader on a division champion. There aren’t many seasons when I’d pick someone as MVP over the 2025 version of Aaron Judge, but this is one of them. Sure, I’m a stat guy, so this feels like a departure from that foundation, but sometimes a narrative is just too compelling to ignore.
Finally, poor Jose Ramirez. This is Ramirez’s sixth time landing in the AL’s top five in MVP balloting, and eighth time in the top 10. But he’s not going to win. Ramirez just keeps churning out the same great season every year. It’s just that there has always been someone a little greater each season.
That being said: Kansas City’s Bobby Witt Jr. should have been the third finalist. He’ll be back.
MVP must-reads:
What it’s really like facing Aaron Judge
Can Yankees build a title-winning team around Aaron Judge?
‘It’s something that’s never been done’: Inside Cal Raleigh’s road to HR history
Why the Mariners are built to last after a crushing ALCS loss
National League MVP
Finalists:
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies
Juan Soto, New York Mets
My pick: Ohtani
What to know: Together, the three NL MVP finalists logged 63% of their starts at designated hitter. Most of the non-DH starts came from Soto, whose defensive metrics continue to suggest a future of increased DH time. Still, the days of DHs being locked out of the MVP chase are clearly over.
Ohtani was the first exclusive DH to win an MVP last year, though he’d won it before while serving as an every-day DH in addition to pitching. He logged 1.1 bWAR this season for his 47 innings on the mound, which could have proved to be a tiebreaker if he and the other finalists were close. But it’s Ohtani all the way.
As hitters, all three used up a similar number of outs as Ohtani, who had at least a 20-run advantage in runs created over both. Shockingly, it was Soto who had the best baserunning numbers, thanks to his 38-steal breakout and Ohtani deemphasizing that part of his game. But Ohtani provided easily the most defensive value with his pitching, while Soto’s defense was a negative and Schwarber was almost exclusively a DH.
Basically, everything Schwarber and Soto did, Ohtani did better — and he pitched well. Even Schwarber’s league-leading RBI count (132) is trumped by Ohtani’s decided edge in WPA, a category in which he led the league. It’s Ohtani’s award, again, and it will be No. 4 for him. Only Barry Bonds has won more.
Not for nothing, you know which position player posted the highest bWAR total? That would be a nonfinalist: Arizona’s Geraldo Perdomo (7.0 bWAR), though he did finish behind Ohtani when the latter’s pitching bWAR is added.
MVP must-reads:
2025 MLB most exciting player bracket: Ohtani, Judge, more
The improbability of Shohei Ohtani’s greatness
Schwarber, All-Star swing-off captures the beauty of baseball
Inside Juan Soto’s wild first Mets season
Juan Soto, the showman, finally showing up for Mets
American League Cy Young
Finalists:
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
My pick: Skubal
Skubal is well positioned to become the AL’s first repeat Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez in 2000. He might just be getting started. The dominant lefty didn’t repeat as a pitching Triple Crown winner, but he posted a lower ERA (2.21 to 2.39) and struck out more batters (241 to 228) than he did while winning the Cy Young Award in 2024. For the second straight year, he led the AL in pitching bWAR, FIP and ERA+.
That’s a tough résumé for Crochet to top, but he came pretty close, leading the AL in innings (205⅓) and strikeouts (255) and beating Skubal in wins (18 to 13). Skubal was a little more consistent in terms of average game score (64.2 to 62.6). Skubal really didn’t rout Crochet in any key area, but he beat him just the same in most columns.
Brown is a worthy No. 3, but for him, it’s the same story: He hung with the big two in most areas but didn’t top them. Still, it was another season of improvement for Brown, whose ERA over the past three seasons has gone from 5.09 to 3.49 to 2.43.
Cy Young must-reads:
The extraordinary mystery of the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal
National League Cy Young
Finalists:
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers
My pick: Sanchez
My AXE system wasn’t particularly emphatic about the No. 3 pitcher in the NL Cy Young column, so Yamamoto is as good a pick there as any. We start with him because his dominant postseason run is fresh in our minds. But that doesn’t factor in here. Maybe it should, but it doesn’t. In any event, I’d have gone with Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta as my No. 3.
Regardless of the third finalist, during the regular season, Skenes and Sanchez gradually separated themselves from the pack, especially after Sanchez’s teammate Zack Wheeler was injured. They are the easy top two but picking between them isn’t that easy.
Sanchez has the edge in volume — 202 innings to 187⅔, in part because the Pirates eased up on Skenes toward the end. Indeed, failure to do so would have been malpractice. Despite that, Skenes struck out more batters (216 to 212), posted a better ERA (1.97 to 2.50) and led the league in ERA+, WHIP and FIP. The extra 14⅓ innings allowed Sanchez a narrow win in bWAR (8.0 to 7.7).
In the end, their runs saved against average is a virtual dead heat: 53 for Sanchez against 52 for Skenes. Thus for me it comes down to context. Sanchez put up his season for a division champ, Skenes for a cellar dweller. That is not Skenes’ fault, but we’ve got to separate these pitchers somehow. Sanchez’s season was worth 3.2% championship probability added against Skenes’ 0.5%. That’s the clincher for me.
But I think Skenes will win the vote.
Cy Young must-reads:
How young aces Skenes, Skubal dominate
Other awards
Just a run-through of my picks, leaving aside the Comeback Player category, which is tough to attack analytically:
Executive of the Year: Matt Arnold, Milwaukee Brewers. I have a metric I use to track organizational performance. It looks at things such as the performance of acquired players, organizational records and the value produced by rookies. Arnold’s club topped the charts. Arnold won this award last year, so we’ll find out if there is an Arnold fatigue at work here. If Arnold doesn’t win, I’d lean toward Seattle’s Jerry Dipoto.
All-MLB: My All-MVP first team, courtesy of AXE:
1B: Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves
2B: Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs
SS: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
3B: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians
C: Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
OF: Juan Soto, New York Mets
OF: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
OF: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks
DH: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
LHP: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
RHP: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
RP: Aroldis Chapman, Boston Red Sox
Hank Aaron Award: Aaron Judge (AL, New York Yankees); Shohei Ohtani (NL, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Mariano Rivera Award: Aroldis Chapman, Boston Red Sox
Trevor Hoffman Award: Edwin Diaz, New York Mets
Gold Gloves: The winners have been announced and can be found here. My quibbles: I would have gone with Toronto’s Alejandro Kirk at AL catcher over Detroit’s Dillon Dingler. On the NL side, I’d have liked to find a spot for Washington’s Jacob Young, but the insistence on LF/CF/RF distinctions ruled that out. All in all, another pretty solid job in an awards category that used to be rife with absurdities.
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Greg Wyshynski
The Edmonton Oilers finally addressed their multiple-season problem in goal by acquiring Pittsburgh Penguins netminder Tristan Jarry on Friday.
The Oilers sent goalie Stuart Skinner, defenseman Brett Kulak and a 2029 second-round pick to Pittsburgh for Jarry and forward Sam Poulin.
Edmonton also made another trade Friday, sending a 2027 third-round pick to the Nashville Predators for defenseman Spencer Stastney.
Jarry, 30, is in his 10th NHL season, all with the Penguins. He had helped Pittsburgh to a surprising start that put it in a playoff seed through Thursday’s games. He was 9-3-1 in 14 games with Pittsburgh this season with a .909 save percentage and a 2.66 goals-against average with one shutout. MoneyPuck had him at 9.8 goals saved above expected.
Edmonton has the second-worst team save percentage in the NHL this season (.873). The Oilers have appeared in back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals, losing both times to the Florida Panthers. Each run has been plagued by goaltending inconsistency, with Skinner and backup Calvin Pickard unable to provide championship-caliber stability. The Oilers would have preferred adding a veteran goalie to a tandem with Skinner, but that would have been a challenge under the salary cap.
Jarry is signed through the 2027-28 season with a $5.375 million cap hit.
Skinner is signed through this season, and his contract carries an average annual value of $2.6 million. Kulak is also signed through 2025-26, and his contract carries an average annual value of $2.75 million. Both are set to be unrestricted free agents next summer.
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Sean Allen
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Sean Allen
Special to ESPN.com
- Sean Allen is a contributing writer for fantasy hockey and betting at ESPN. He was the 2008 and 2009 FSWA Hockey Writer of the Year.
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Victoria Matiash
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Victoria Matiash
Special to ESPN.com
- Victoria Matiash is a contributing writer for fantasy hockey and betting at ESPN. Victoria has been a part of the fantasy team since 2010.
Another week of the 2025-26 NHL season, another week on top of the ESPN NHL Power Rankings for the Colorado Avalanche. However, unlike in weeks past, the Avs were not a unanimous selection at No. 1 in our poll.
Beyond No. 1, the Washington Capitals, Philadelphia Flyers and Toronto Maple Leafs rose in the rankings, while the Minnesota Wild, New Jersey Devils and Ottawa Senators took a tumble from last week.
Plus, along with the new set of rankings, we’ve tapped ESPN fantasy hockey analysts Sean Allen (Eastern Conference) and Victoria Matiash (Western Conference) to advise managers on whether to keep or drop one specific player on each club. And a reminder: It’s not too late to join ESPN Fantasy Hockey, with new leagues starting every Monday.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Dec. 5. Points percentages are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 82.3%
Valeri Nichushkin, RW (rostered in 30.2% of ESPN leagues): When healthy — as he is again after losing eight games to a lower-body injury — the Avalanche forward serves as a formidable, well-rounded fantasy producer. Savvier managers know how to settle into the cycle of getting the most out of Nichushkin when fit, then tucking him on IR when not. Wash, rinse, repeat. Patience.
Next seven days: vs. NSH (Dec. 13), @ SEA (Dec. 16)
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 73.4%
Matt Duchene, C/LW (rostered in 36.7%): Let’s give him a minute. After losing 24 contests to a concussion, the veteran forward is still getting back up to speed. But it shouldn’t be long before Duchene starts contributing nearer last year’s pace, which netted 30 goals and 82 points. With Tyler Seguin out for the year, the Stars are certainly hoping for as much. Patience.
Next seven days: vs. FLA (Dec. 13), vs. LA (Dec. 15), @ SJ (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 64.5%
Dylan Strome, C (rostered in 77.8%): Alex Ovechkin is hitting his midseason stride, and Strome moves with him. Over 80% of Ovechkin’s even-strength minutes come alongside his buddy, giving Strome a steady pipeline to production. Hang tight and the results should follow. Patience.
Next seven days: @ WPG (Dec. 13), @ MIN (Dec. 16), vs. TOR (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 62.9%
Frank Vatrano, RW/LW (rostered in 51.6%): This isn’t the 2023-24 Ducks, with whom Vatrano scored an unprecedented 37 goals on 272 shots. Now settled into the bottom six, the winger is only three goals to the good (one assist) and skating fewer than 13 minutes per game. Panic
Next seven days: @ NJ (Dec. 13), @ NYR (Dec. 15), @ CBJ (Dec. 16)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 66.7%
Andrei Svechnikov, LW (rostered in 58.9%): His shooting percentage is down, but bad luck doesn’t explain why he’s averaging just 16:30 per game. Still, he’s riding with one of the league’s stronger lines (64.8% shot attempt share) and four of his seven goals have come on the power play. Patience, but it’s thinning.
Next seven days: @ PHI (Dec. 13), vs. PHI (Dec. 14), @ NSH (Dec. 17)
0:49
Andrei Svechnikov nets power-play goal
Andrei Svechnikov capitalizes on the power play
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 65%
Noah Hanifin, D (rostered in 49.7): Despite a quiet start to 2025-26 — losing October to injury didn’t help — Hanifin’s fantasy résumé is too respectable to ignore in deeper competition. This is a 40-point player with Vegas who has only six to show for his first 19 games. Fortunately, logging hefty minutes at even-strength and on the power play, the defenseman already appears to be turning a productive corner. Patience.
Next seven days: @ CBJ (Dec. 13), vs. NJ (Dec. 17)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 61.3%
Brayden Point, C (rostered in 85.5%): Based on his career body of work, Point deserves more time. The Lightning will keep giving him chances to lift his current 1.12 FPPG back toward the 2.45 he has averaged over the past three seasons. Patience.
Next seven days: @ NYI (Dec. 13), vs. FLA (Dec. 15), vs. LA (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 62.9%
Marco Rossi, C (rostered in 49.7%): The lingering injury is becoming a bigger bother as plans to have Rossi travel out west on a recent road trip were seemingly scuttled last minute. Reports that he doesn’t look altogether comfortable on the ice are equally disheartening. Outside of fantasy leagues that accommodate for an excess of IR spots, the young center has no role to play right now. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Dec. 13), vs. BOS (Dec. 14), vs. WSH (Dec. 16), @ CBJ (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 62.1%
Matvei Michkov, RW (rostered in 67.6%): The Flyers’ offense retooled around Trevor Zegras as its focal point. Michkov has only four power-play points and is fourth on his own team in shots on goal. He’ll come around as a fantasy star, but not yet. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. CAR (Dec. 13), @ CAR (Dec. 14), @ MTL (Dec. 16), @ BUF (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 60.3%
Kris Letang, D (rostered in 81.1%): Even with Evgeni Malkin resurging and Sidney Crosby still strong, Letang isn’t the fantasy force his name implies. Erik Karlsson dominates the power play, limiting Letang’s minutes. He’s still effective as a quarterback, but the reduced ice time curbs his upside. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. SJ (Dec. 13), vs. UTA (Dec. 14), vs. EDM (Dec. 16), @ OTT (Dec. 18)
1:20
Kris Letang’s OT winner completes comeback for Penguins
Kris Letang slots in the winning goal to lift the Penguins to a 4-3 victory over the Blue Jackets in overtime.
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 60.9%
Anders Lee, LW (rostered in 58.9%): Last season looked like the start of Lee’s decline as a fantasy player, and this year hasn’t changed the trajectory. Even with two injuries on the top power-play unit, the Isles still didn’t turn to him in recent games. That says plenty. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. TB (Dec. 13), @ DET (Dec. 16)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 60%
Quinton Byfield, C (rostered in 50.6%): The second-line center isn’t shooting on net habitually enough. So, no small wonder he isn’t scoring. Fantasy managers can be asked to invest in a player’s talent and potential for only so long. At some point, the hard numbers need to be there. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. CGY (Dec. 13), @ DAL (Dec. 15), @ FLA (Dec. 17), @ TB (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 59.4%
Charlie McAvoy, D (rostered in 85.5%): Not ideal to be in this situation for a second straight season, but McAvoy’s on the mend after taking a puck to the face in November. The Bruins’ power play was elite with him and should pick up where it left off when he’s back. Patience.
Next seven days: @ MIN (Dec. 14), vs. UTA (Dec. 16), vs. EDM (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 57.8%
Patrick Kane, RW (rostered in 50.6%): This comes down to expectations. If you’re not waiting for vintage Kane, there’s still solid value here on a strong Red Wings attack and power play. He’s trending up too, leading Detroit in shots on goal in recent weeks. Patience.
Next seven days: @ CHI (Dec. 13), vs. NYI (Dec. 16), vs. UTA (Dec. 17)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 56.5%
Dougie Hamilton, D (rostered in 74.2%): Luke Hughes was already a threat to take over the top power-play spot, and now Simon Nemec is rising. The advantage has always been Hamilton’s pathway to fantasy upside, so if he’s pushed aside, the ceiling drops fast. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. ANA (Dec. 13), vs. VAN (Dec. 14), @ VGK (Dec. 17)
0:18
Simon Nemec scores OT winner for Devils
Simon Nemec buries the game-winning goal in overtime to lift New Jersey to victory.
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 55%
Anthony Stolarz/Joseph Woll, G (rostered in 52.9%/26.4%): The Leafs are the same team that made these goalies fantasy staples despite a strict timeshare last season. Injuries and missed time have defined the start, but both will eventually be healthy together. Expect a strong second half once they’re back in sync. Patience.
Next seven days: vs. EDM (Dec. 13), vs. CHI (Dec. 16), @ WSH (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 53.3%
Sam Bennett, C (rostered in 60.3%): A slow start looked like a Conn Smythe hangover, but Bennett has snapped out of it. He’s been running at a point-per-game pace since mid-November and looks back on track. Patience.
Next seven days: @ DAL (Dec. 13), @ TB (Dec. 15), vs. LA (Dec. 17)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 53.1%
J.T. Miller, C (rostered in 88.4%): It’s tempting to stay calm after his strong post-trade run last year — 2.44 FPPG in 32 games — but his even-strength play has cratered. Across nine line combos he has logged 20-plus minutes with, the Rangers have been outscored 13-7 at 5-on-5. That’s a big red flag. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. MTL (Dec. 13), vs. ANA (Dec. 15), vs. VAN (Dec. 16), @ STL (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 58.3%
Ivan Demidov, RW (rostered in 50.6%): Long-term patience is fine, but this season he doesn’t have the role to justify a roster spot. Zack Bolduc cuts into his power-play time, and injuries have left Montreal’s offense too top-heavy for Demidov to gain traction. Panic.
Next seven days: @ NYR (Dec. 13), vs. EDM (Dec. 14), vs. PHI (Dec. 16), vs. CHI (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 54.8%
Darnell Nurse, D (rostered in 90.5%): A much bigger issue when the scoring isn’t there either, the Oilers defender isn’t blocking shots as frequently either. Heading into Thursday’s tilt against Detroit, Nurse has two goals and a single assist to show for 18 games. Far less popular in fantasy play, fellow defender Mattias Ekholm is providing much greater value. Panic.
Next seven days: @ TOR (Dec. 13), @ MTL (Dec. 14), @ PIT (Dec. 16), @ BOS (Dec. 18)
0:33
Darnell Nurse nets goal for Oilers
Darnell Nurse tallies goal vs. Capitals
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 51.6%
Sean Monahan, C (rostered in 17.2%): Monahan opened strong as the No. 1 center with Kirill Marchenko, but that window closed fast once Adam Fantilli vaulted up the lineup. Nothing suggests Fantilli will give that spot back anytime soon, leaving Monahan anchored to the second line with limited upside. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. VGK (Dec. 13), vs. ANA (Dec. 16), vs. MIN (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 48.4%
Nick Schmaltz, RW/C (rostered in 85.1%): Here we go. After a dismal stretch that ate up the second half of November, Schmaltz appears back in rhythm with a goal and three assists in five contests. Competing on a top line and power play with Clayton Keller, the streaky center tends to produce with gusto once back in groove. Patience.
Next seven days: vs. SEA (Dec. 12), @ PIT (Dec. 14), @ BOS (Dec. 16), @ DET (Dec. 17)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 53.3%
Linus Ullmark, G (rostered in 43.4%): Ullmark has been extreme, with seven games above 4.0 fantasy points, four below -6.0. He leads the league in blowups and power-play goals allowed, which may be connected. Still, a penalty-kill fix is doable, so there’s hope if you can hold on. Patience, for a little longer.
Next seven days: @ MIN (Dec. 13), @ WPG (Dec. 15), vs. PIT (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 53.3%
Ryan Donato, RW (rostered in 25.7%): Averaging a sniff more than 13 minutes per game in December, the bottom-six skater has two goals (zero assists) in his past 14 contests. October’s exciting run of six goals in six matches feels like a long time ago now. Panic.
Next seven days: @ STL (Dec. 12), vs. DET (Dec. 13), @ TOR (Dec. 16), @ MTL (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 53.6%
Joey Daccord, G (rostered in 73.3%): While Wednesday’s victory over the Kings was indeed impressive, one that hardly makes up for the negative fantasy integers accrued in Daccord’s previous four outings. Seattle’s No. 1 — a solid netminder when provided with proper support — should be jettisoned until the Kraken embark on another unexpected successful run, as is their routine. Panic.
Next seven days: @ UTA (Dec. 12), vs. BUF (Dec. 14), vs. COL (Dec. 16), @ CGY (Dec. 18)
0:27
Joey Daccord makes beautiful save
Joey Daccord makes beautiful save
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 51.6%
Yaroslav Askarov, G (rostered in 30.8%): No question, there will continue to be bumps along the way for Askarov and the rest of Ryan Warsovky’s charges. But, led by their young Hart candidate up front, this Sharks squad is a team on the rise. After an ugly October, Askarov is 9-4-0, with a .930 SV% and 2.36 GAA through 13 contests. He boasts enduring value in deeper fantasy competition. Patience.
Next seven days: @ PIT (Dec. 13), vs. CGY (Dec. 16), vs. DAL (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 48.3%
Neal Pionk, D (rostered in 63.6%): Outside of the Jets’ top line and defenseman Josh Morrissey, no one is scoring much at all in Winnipeg this season, including the club’s No. 2-ranked fantasy defender. And Pionk isn’t blocking enough shots to otherwise merit rostering. There are likely better blueline options available elsewhere. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Dec. 13), vs. OTT (Dec. 15), @ STL (Dec. 17)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 48.4%
Rasmus Dahlin, D (rostered in 96.6%): He’s well off last season’s pace — and off his elite 2.52 FPPG from the prior three years — but the Sabres’ power play has more success with Josh Norris back. You were always giving Dahlin time anyway, so this is an easy call. Patience.
Next seven days: @ SEA (Dec. 14), vs. PHI (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 45.3%
Jordan Kyrou, RW (rostered in 71.7%): Even before falling injured, the points weren’t adding up as usual. As Blues beat reporter Andy Strickland put it, while Kyrou had been playing reasonably well, he just wasn’t scoring. Which is more useful to a real-life hockey squad than one competing in the fantasy sphere. And now the winger is out week-to-week. Panic.
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Dec. 12), vs. NSH (Dec. 15), vs. WPG (Dec. 17), vs. NYR (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 43.8%
Jonathan Huberdeau, LW (rostered in 43.3%): Admittedly, fantasy loyalty in this case is becoming more and more difficult to justify. But Huberdeau is still skating on Calgary’s top line and power play. Plus, he has found the back of the net twice in the past week. Just until the new year, maybe. Limited patience.
Next seven days: @ LA (Dec. 13), @ SJ (Dec. 16), vs. SEA (Dec. 18)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 46.7%
Jonathan Marchessault, RW (rostered in 53.4%): Enough is enough. Despite a mild uptick in offense of late, Marchessault is providing too little, too late into his disastrous tenure with the Predators. Now he isn’t even competing on a line with Filip Forsberg anymore. Fantasy managers can always give the veteran winger a fresh look if or when he’s traded elsewhere. Panic.
Next seven days: @ COL (Dec. 13), @ STL (Dec. 15), vs. CAR (Dec. 17)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 40.3%
Kiefer Sherwood, LW/RW (rostered in 78.3%): As anticipated, the goal-scoring has dried up. Rocking a highly unsustainable 31.6 S%, Sherwood scored 12 in his first 20 games, followed by zero in his subsequent 10 contests. Outside of fantasy leagues that reward hits at an ultra-premium, the physical forward is replaceable. Panic.
Next seven days: @ NJ (Dec. 14), @ NYR (Dec. 16)
1:34
Which teams are the best fit for Quinn Hughes?
Greg Wyshynski details all the teams that make sense in a potential trade for Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes.
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Alden Gonzalez
ORLANDO, Fla. — If there’s one team willing and able to give outfielder Kyle Tucker the $400 million he seeks in free agency, it’s the Toronto Blue Jays, according to many of the agents, executives and managers at baseball’s annual winter meetings this week. And if there’s one team with the capability to both trade for and extend Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, according to insiders, it’s the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Less than six weeks after engaging in one of the most thrilling, tightly contested World Series in recent memory, the Blue Jays and Dodgers reside at the center of an offseason expected to brim with activity over the next week, embedded in the sport’s subconscious once again.
The Blue Jays have already landed arguably the best free agent pitcher, signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract, and are poised to hand out another nine-figure deal in their pursuit of a bat. The Dodgers signed the most decorated closer in free agency, agreeing to terms on a three-year, $69 million deal with Edwin Diaz, and have the resources to pull off this offseason’s biggest trade, in whichever form it takes. The Blue Jays ultimately might not land Tucker. The Dodgers — in search of an outfielder and also interested in Tucker, though only on a short-term deal — might not get Skubal. But their presence is stark at a time when so many big-market owners seem unwilling to spend.
The Chicago Cubs need an assortment of pitching but are wary of the luxury-tax threshold; the Houston Astros desperately need to replace free agent Framber Valdez in the rotation but will probably have to do so via trade; the San Diego Padres and Texas Rangers are looking to cut costs once again; the San Francisco Giants are expected to act conservatively; and though the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and New York Mets could all sign at least one major free agent position player this offseason, they’ve all been operating in more budget-conscious ways than their fans are used to.
A free agent pool defined more so by its depth than by its star power is certainly a factor. But two agents who spoke to ESPN this week said some teams have told them they’re not acting aggressively in free agency because of labor issues they believe will lead to a lockout next December and could alter the economics of the sport significantly. The continued deterioration of local TV deals is just as big of a factor, if not more so, league and team sources have said. And yet the Blue Jays and Dodgers appear to exist outside of those concerns, which probably shouldn’t come as a surprise.
The Blue Jays are backed by Rogers Communications, one of Canada’s largest media conglomerates. The Dodgers, further bolstered by the vast revenue streams generated by Shohei Ohtani, have what many consider the most lucrative and most stable local-media contract in the industry.
They might be on another collision course.
IF YOU WANT to get a sense for how things have changed financially for the Dodgers since signing Ohtani 24 months ago, look no further than the relievers. At the start of 2025, the Dodgers signed Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72 million deal, the type of massive commitment for a volatile position group that Andrew Friedman, now in his 12th year as president of baseball operations, had spent his entire career avoiding. Scott flamed out tremendously in his first year in L.A., and yet Friedman went to the well again on Tuesday, addressing the Dodgers’ ninth-inning need by rewarding Díaz with the highest average annual value ever for a reliever.
It’s ultimately not complicated: Dodgers owner Mark Walter is willing to spend whatever it takes, and his lieutenants are happy to oblige.
“We are in a really strong position right now, financially, and our ownership group has been incredibly supportive of pouring that back into our team and that partnership with our fans,” Friedman said.
“As we look at things, if we were on a really tight budget, we probably wouldn’t allocate in the same way. But having more resources, it allows us to be a little bit more aggressive on that point. In a world where there are major constraints, that wouldn’t be an area where I personally would allocate versus other areas. But we’re in a really fortunate position right now, and we have a really talented team going into 2026. We’re going to do everything we can to put ourselves in the best position to win a World Series.”
Díaz followed Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Teoscar Hernandez, Blake Snell, Roki Sasaki and Scott — all considered among the best players available at their respective positions over the past three offseasons, all acquired by the Dodgers. The team’s competitive-balance-tax payroll finished at roughly $415 million in 2025, a whopping $70 million more than the second-place Mets. The Díaz deal all but ensures they’ll once again blow past Major League Baseball’s highest threshold in 2026.
The Dodgers are interested in bringing Enrique Hernandez back, sources said, and would prefer to trade from their surplus of outfield prospects to augment their lineup, with bat-to-ball specialists like Cleveland Guardians left fielder Steven Kwan and St. Louis Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan seen as ideal fits. In other words, they can very easily just go the straightforward route. Or, as they aggressively pursue a three-peat, they can pounce on Tucker with another short-term, high-AAV deal, or use their vast starting-pitching depth — including, perhaps, Glasnow, whose name has been thrown around — to get Skubal. They might even do both.
In the words of one rival executive: “You can never rule anything out with them.”
TUCKER MAKES HIS offseason home in Tampa, Florida, 25 miles from the Blue Jays’ spring training headquarters in Dunedin. Visiting the complex of one of his most aggressive suitors is a no-brainer as Tucker navigates his first free agency. And yet reports of him being spotted there last week raised eyebrows — not just from Blue Jays fans still recovering from a deflating World Series loss, but from industry insiders who recognize the type of game changer that place can be.
A facility alone won’t singlehandedly sway a top-tier free agent, of course, but if there’s one capable of doing so, the Blue Jays’ sprawling, state-of-the art spring training home is it.
As one agent said, “It’s sick.”
But it’s also not new. The Blue Jays have boasted arguably the most advanced complex in baseball ever since an $80 million renovation was completed five years ago. The city of Toronto, meanwhile, has always been held in high regard. Their fans have always been passionate. But over these past eight months, during which Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed a $500 million extension and led a World Series run that captivated an entire country, players’ perceptions of them have shifted dramatically.
“You’re on Zoom calls with high-profile players that are speaking very, very highly of the organization, the facilities, the players that are on the team and how they conduct themselves,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. “That’s been a shift. I feel like in years past, with some high-profile players, it’s kind of been us selling us to them, whereas now I think the players know what they’re getting into as soon as they start talking to us.”
For so long, the Blue Jays were the team left at the altar. Inspired runs at Juan Soto, Ohtani and Sasaki led only to heartbreak. Now the expectation is that players are finally going to take their money. It started with Guerrero’s extension in April, then Cease and fellow starter Cody Ponce in free agency earlier this month. But the Blue Jays are also expected to add a bona fide late-inning reliever, and several agents and rival execs view them as the favorites for either Tucker or Bichette — or potentially both.
Their march to the World Series made them a legitimate landing spot for players who long to win and cast new light on a stretch previously marked by three playoff appearances and zero victories. It has also highlighted their most appealing traits.
Schneider’s popularity with players is one of them. Canada’s fervor for the Blue Jays, which became the country’s lone major league franchise when the Montreal Expos left, is another. Their facilities — a sprawling campus in Dunedin and a state-of-the-art weight room in Toronto, all designed to make them a destination spot — are yet another.
Most notable of all, though, is their money.
It might finally be making a difference.
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