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Quality always emerges eventually. And with just three regular-season Saturdays (plus Championship Week) to go, we have a pretty good idea of this year’s hierarchy. Ohio State redshirt freshman Julian Sayin has completed more than 80% of his passes during a perfect 9-0 start. After Kurtis Rourke led Indiana to the CFP as a one-year transfer last season, Fernando Mendoza has topped him as this year’s one-year guy. The gutsiest veterans in the sport, Georgia Tech’s Haynes King and Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia, have led their teams to unforeseen heights. Gunner Stockton, the most Georgia of Georgia quarterbacks, has been increasingly stellar.

A month into the season, I ranked every power conference starting quarterback, and it probably isn’t a surprise that the list has changed pretty significantly after six more weeks of play. Who has improved the most (besides Sayin)? Whose production has trailed off? Let’s rank all 68 (or so) once again!

(Note: References to rushing yards in stat lines below do not include sack yardage.)

Last Rank: 11 | Total QBR: 91.1 | Pass Yds: 2,491 | Rush Yds (no sack): 56 | Total TDs: 24

It’s always hard to grade the guys who have the best supporting cast. Alabama’s Mac Jones produced the best Total QBR of the decade in 2020 but lost the Heisman vote to one of his teammates, and if star receiver Jeremiah Smith continues to produce as he has of late (past two games: 16 catches, 260 yards, three touchdowns) he might prevent Sayin from winning the award as well. But as Ohio State has opened up the playbook and asked more of Sayin, he has responded with near perfection. He’s first in the nation in Total QBR, completion rate (80.9%) and success rate* (62.0%)

(Success rate: The percentage of plays gaining at least 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third and fourth.)

Even with Smith and other star-caliber players at his disposal, his accuracy is incredible. This pass placement map has about as tight a radius as you’ll ever see, even if some away-from-the-body catches also prove the awesomeness of his receivers.

Last Rank: 29 | Total QBR: 84.2 | Pass Yds: 1,888 | Rush Yds (no sack): 787 | Total TDs: 23

Since the last list came out on Oct. 1, King has, in four games, thrown for 282.5 yards per game, averaging 9.6 yards per dropback (first nationally) with a 75.7% completion rate (third) and 57.9% success rate (second). He has also averaged 97.3 non-sack rushing yards per game (fourth among non-option quarterbacks). Projected over a full 13 games, that’s a 3,600-1,200 pace. Good gracious.

Despite an endless number of injuries through the years — and despite his eyes hinting at a certain level of pain I have never experienced after every single tackle he takes — King is doing everything he possibly can to drag Tech to the ACC title and CFP, and he seems to be getting better in the process.

Last Rank: 4 | Total QBR: 88.1 | Pass Yds: 2,342 | Rush Yds (no sack): 304 | Total TDs: 31

I made it clear on Sunday that I thought Sayin should be the Heisman betting favorite instead of Mendoza, but that doesn’t mean Mendoza hasn’t been awesome. He has thrown a pick in five of his past six games, and the fourth-quarter INT against Penn State nearly proved costly, but despite facing loads of pressure for the first time all year, he also engineered a perfect, game-winning TD drive. He’s fourth nationally in Total QBR and first in passing touchdowns. He’s great.

Last Rank: 2 | Total QBR: 86.1 | Pass Yds: 2,440 | Rush Yds (no sack): 691 | Total TDs: 28

After all he has done for Vandy over the past couple of years, Pavia might have played his best game on Saturday. With the Commodores’ defense getting lit up by Auburn, Pavia threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 114 more yards and another score. Like King, when he has to put the team on his shoulders, he looks great doing it.

Last Rank: 1 | Total QBR: 90.7 | Pass Yds: 2,614 | Rush Yds (no sack): 175 | Total TDs: 23

He’s still very good, and USC still ranks first in offensive SP+, but the mistakes have added up a bit. In his past five games, Maiava has thrown six interceptions, and he went a combined 31-for-65 with three picks against Notre Dame and Nebraska before rebounding with a nice performance against Northwestern last Saturday. His next two opponents rank sixth (Iowa) and second (Oregon) in defensive SP+, too.

Last Rank: 20 | Total QBR: 89.4 | Pass Yds: 2,040 | Rush Yds (no sack): 350 | Total TDs: 22

At this point, the only thing he’s missing is a deep ball (or someone to catch one). He’s third in Total QBR, he has thrown just two picks, and on passes thrown under 15 yards downfield his completion rate is 79% (fifth). He’s at only 36% (108th) on longer passes, however, and Georgia lacks in the big-play department. Still, the Bulldogs are efficient, and in part because of Stockton’s legs, they’re nearly perfect in the red zone.

Last Rank: 7 | Total QBR: 83.3 | Pass Yds: 2,275 | Rush Yds (no sack): 104 | Total TDs: 21

His job has gotten easier now that star running back Jeremiyah Love has fully checked into the season (Love’s past three games: 552 yards from scrimmage), but Carr is fourth nationally in yards per dropback and eighth in success rate, and while it’s concerning that (a) he has played against only three top-50 defenses (per SP+) and (b) he wasn’t very good against two, Total QBR is still opponent adjusted, and he’s 10th in that.

Last Rank: 3 | Total QBR: 84.3 | Pass Yds: 2,356 | Rush Yds (no sack): 465 | Total TDs: 19

To make the CFP, Ole Miss just had to go and grab a guy with playoff experience. Easy! Chambliss, the Ferris State transfer and Division II champ, has cooled off since his nearly perfect start, and his past four games against FBS opponents have produced only 7.3 yards per dropback and 4.6 yards per carry (no sacks). But Ole Miss has topped 30 points in four of his five SEC starts, and he’s meeting the moment.

Last Rank: 6 | Total QBR: 80.6 | Pass Yds: 2,064 | Rush Yds (no sack): 470 | Total TDs: 29

It’s hard to grade a guy like Sorsby, who has been just about the best QB in the country in seven wins (67% completion rate, 87.8 Total QBR) and just about the worst in two losses (41% completion rate, 43.7 Total QBR). Regardless, if Good Brendan shows up over the next three weeks, the Bearcats could still be factors in the Big 12 race.

Last Rank: 14 | Total QBR: 86.3 | Pass Yds: 2,372 | Rush Yds (no sack): 815 | Total TDs: 25

For two seasons in Fayetteville, Green has simultaneously been a top-five quarterback and a borderline top-50 guy. It almost varies by the play. But even with the random disasters, he’s one of the scarier dual threats in the country, and he’s far more of a reason why Arkansas has stayed within one score of three ranked teams (including A&M and Ole Miss) than he was a reason why they lost all three.

Last Rank: 8 | Total QBR: 81.3 | Pass Yds: 2,461 | Rush Yds (no sack): 186 | Total TDs: 23

Returns have diminished for Simpson and the Tide’s offense, which has topped 30 points just once in its past six games; in fact, he has topped 8.0 yards per dropback only twice in his past six games as well.

Still, without much of a run game to lean on, Simpson has been excellent in the red zone (Bama is 15th nationally in red zone TD rate), and he has thrown just one pick in 296 passes. Bama is mastering the art of gaining all the right yards.

Last Rank: 26 | Total QBR: 78.2 | Pass Yds: 2,193 | Rush Yds (no sack): 429 | Total TDs: 25

Reed pilots a beautifully spaced offense, with transfers KC Concepcion and Mario Craver frequently stretching defenses horizontally and tight ends Theo Melin Öhrström and Nate Boerkircher open over the middle if opponents overcompensate. A&M ranks just 89th in success rate on passing downs, but since he never allows the Aggies to actually fall off schedule, that hasn’t been much of an issue.


Last Rank: 17 | Total QBR: 76.1 | Pass Yds: 2,737 | Rush Yds (no sack): 177 | Total TDs: 23

Tennessee went to the CFP on the power of great defense (sixth in defensive SP+) last season, so it seemed like Aguilar was walking into a pretty decent situation. The Vols’ defense has completely collapsed — 56th in defensive SP+, 95th in points allowed per drive — but the team is still 6-3 and ranked because Aguilar has keyed an offensive resurgence. He could end up with 4,000 passing yards.


Last Rank: 9 | Total QBR: 77.6 | Pass Yds: 2,251 | Rush Yds (no sack): 655 | Total TDs: 19

Williams is a second-year sophomore and first-year starter with massive upside and lots of things to learn. And either everything has worked or nothing has worked in 2025.

  • Williams in six wins: 89.0 Total QBR, 9.3 yards per dropback, 90.2 rushing yards per game (non-sack)

  • Williams in three losses: 46.6 Total QBR, 4.4 yards per dropback, 34.7 rushing yards per game


Last Rank: 22 | Total QBR: 77.9 | Pass Yds: 2,794 | Rush Yds (no sack): 67 | Total TDs: 24

Like Aguilar, Mensah thought he was coming to play for one team and instead landed with something far different. Duke won nine games with an offense that ranked 71st in SP+ last season; in 2025, with Mensah throwing for over 300 yards per game, the Blue Devils’ offense is up to 18th. And they’re only 5-4 because the defense has disintegrated.


Last Rank: 15 | Total QBR: 84.6 | Pass Yds: 2,255 | Rush Yds (no sack): 275 | Total TDs: 22

He couldn’t do any damage in easy losses to Indiana and Ohio State, and Illinois couldn’t make as much of a playoff push as hoped in 2025. But Altmyer is still seventh in Total QBR, and he should still finish in the Illini’s top five in career passing yardage, and second in career TD passes, in under three full seasons. Pretty good work.


Last Rank: 5 | Total QBR: 69.4 | Pass Yds: 1,884 | Rush Yds (no sack): 240 | Total TDs: 19

He was nearly perfect against a dire Rutgers defense in Week 8, but even including that, Moore’s past five games have seen massive regression after a nearly perfect start.

  • First four games: 85.7 Total QBR, 9.8 yards per dropback, 1.1% interception rate, 1.0% sack rate, 50.8 points per game

  • Past five games: 58.9 Total QBR, 6.4 yards per dropback, 3.1% interception rate, 5.8% sack rate, 26.4 points per game

Luckily, Oregon’s defense is elite (it hasn’t allowed more than 17 points in regulation all season), and the Ducks can play ball control with a good run game.


Last Rank: 21 | Total QBR: 75.8 | Pass Yds: 2,780 | Rush Yds (no sack): 120 | Total TDs: 28

The volume shooter of 2025, Robertson is the only P4 quarterback throwing over 40 passes per game. And with a mediocre run game and mostly disappointing defense, Robertson’s right arm has basically had to carry Baylor to a winning record — when his Total QBR tops 75.0 the Bears win, and when it doesn’t they lose. It’s a burden, but he has played well.


Last Rank: 34 | Total QBR: 83.0 | Pass Yds: 1,588 | Rush Yds (no sack): 552 | Total TDs: 20

Utah ranked 96th in offensive SP+ last season; the combination of Dampier and coordinator Jason Beck has led a surge all the way to 19th. Dampier is second on the team in rushing yards, and while there aren’t many big plays in the passing game, he has been crisp and efficient. (And because backup Byrd Ficklin was exciting in his lone start, Utah can run Dampier without fear of injury.)


Last Rank: 32 | Total QBR: 81.4 | Pass Yds: 2,411 | Rush Yds (no sack): 227 | Total TDs: 23

NC State has had only one top-40 offense, per SP+, since 2018, but the Wolfpack are charging toward a second because of Bailey. Like Robertson, he has had to be brilliant to drag the Pack to wins — they’re 5-0 when his Total QBR is above 85.0 and 0-4 when it isn’t — but his 340-yard, two-touchdown performance in the 48-36 upset of King’s Georgia Tech was absolutely dynamite.


Last Rank: 10 | Total QBR: 72.9 | Pass Yds: 2,190 | Rush Yds (no sack): 504 | Total TDs: 24

A career that began during the 2020 COVID season will soon end with Daniels No. 2 on Kansas’ passing yardage and touchdown lists, behind only Todd Reesing. Although he never has gotten enough help from his defense (average defensive SP+ ranking in his time: 89.0), he’s wrapping up the year playing clean ball: He has thrown only three interceptions, and the Jayhawks are 26th in offensive success rate.


Last Rank: 28 | Total QBR: 68.1 | Pass Yds: 1,969 | Rush Yds (no sack): 62 | Total TDs: 16

He makes me nervous and takes a lot of hits (and has missed time with multiple injuries because of it), but there’s no question that Morton has taken a solid step forward this year, improving to career highs in Total QBR, completion rate (65.7%), yards per completion (13.9) and most of the other stats by which we judge QBs.


Last Rank: 23 | Total QBR: 72.7 | Pass Yds: 2,690 | Rush Yds (no sack): 110 | Total TDs: 25

TCU can’t run the ball, and its offensive production has trailed off in the past couple of games, but not much of that is Hoover’s fault. (Granted, his two picks against Iowa State didn’t help.) His Total QBR has topped 75.0 in six of nine starts, and he’s top 10 nationally in passing yards (298.9) and touchdowns (2.6) per game.


Last Rank: 39 | Total QBR: 77.1 | Pass Yds: 1,881 | Rush Yds (no sack): 464 | Total TDs: 21

Unlike many of the Big 12 QBs in this portion of the list, Bachmeier has gotten help from both his defense and run game, and he couldn’t make enough happen at Texas Tech last week, with career lows in success rate (30.6%) and yards per dropback (5.0). BYU’s playoff hopes are still solid despite putting a true freshman in charge of the offense, and he’s only going to get better from here.


Last Rank: unranked | Total QBR: 71.0 | Pass Yds: 1,547 | Rush Yds (no sack): 242 | Total TDs: 13

He was the No. 48 pocket passer recruit in the class of 2025, with offers primarily from MAC schools, but Heintschel has been the most transformative freshman QB in the country: Pitt is 5-0 and has averaged 40 points per game since sticking him in the lineup. He scrambles well, and he has averaged at least 13 yards per completion in three starts. He has been exactly the shot in the arm the Panthers needed.


Last Rank: 18 | Total QBR: 78.1 | Pass Yds: 2,194 | Rush Yds (no sack): 83 | Total TDs: 16

I’ve always appreciated Beck’s willingness to make mistakes. He makes tough throws and completes a lot of them (he’s behind only Sayin with his 73% completion rate), but the downside, of course, is the interceptions: He has thrown six in two Miami losses (and only three in seven wins). The Hurricanes still have solid odds of reaching 10-2 and, potentially, the CFP, though.


Last Rank: 47 | Total QBR: 68.5 | Pass Yds: 1,991 | Rush Yds (no sack): 396 | Total TDs: 23

It appeared at the start of the season that Johnson was trying to play like a professional QB — not much rushing, checking to safe and easy options — to the detriment of his team. Now he’s playing like himself, taking risks and using his legs. Even with more mistakes, it has made a positive difference.

  • First four games (1-3): 48.6 Total QBR, 11.1 yards per completion, 0.8% INT rate, 2.3% sack rate, 21.5 non-sack rushing yards per game

  • Past five games (3-2): 80.7 Total QBR, 12.7 yards per completion, 2.1% INT rate, 3.3% sack rate, 62.0 non-sack rushing yards per game

That’s better.


Last Rank: 54 | Total QBR: 67.9 | Pass Yds: 2,136 | Rush Yds (no sack): 186 | Total TDs: 17

It happened too late to save Clemson’s season in any major way (occasional rubbish from the defense didn’t help either), but in October, Cade Klubnik officially became Cade Klubnik again.

  • First four games (1-3): 44.9 Total QBR, 60.1% completion rate, 11.2 yards per completion, 2.7% INT rate

  • Past four games (3-1): 89.6 Total QBR, 77.8% completion rate, 12.5 yards per completion, 0.9% INT rate

This will always go down as a massively disappointing season, but Klubnik did show up, at least.


Last Rank: 30 | Total QBR: 71.2 | Pass Yds: 2,705 | Rush Yds (no sack): 165 | Total TDs: 20

Per SP+ rankings, Rutgers is fielding its worst defense since 2000 but its best offense since 2007 this fall. It’s hard to blame Kaliakmanis for the Scarlet Knights’ 5-5 record, in other words, and he was prolific in two recent wins (combined: 588 yards, five TDs). With a home upset of Penn State, Rutgers could salvage bowl eligibility for the third straight year.


Last Rank: 35 | Total QBR: 62.7 | Pass Yds: 2,810 | Rush Yds (no sack): 180 | Total TDs: 23

After a bumpy start, SMU has won five of six to entrench itself back in the ACC title race, and Jennings has been a key reason for that. He was trying to do too much early on, but he has lowered both his interception and sack rates, and even with a drop-off in explosiveness, the SMU offense is producing more and handing its defense better field position.


Last Rank: 51 | Total QBR: 68.8 | Pass Yds: 2,200 | Rush Yds (no sack): 274 | Total TDs: 26

It’s been quite the up-and-down career for Fifita at this point, but he has had some brilliant games during Arizona’s rebound season. He has topped 370 passing yards twice, and he has produced a Total QBR of 88.6 or higher three times. Defense has been the primary driver for the Wildcats’ 6-3 start, but they’re still averaging 38.0 points per game in wins — Fifita’s doing his job.


Last Rank: 12 | Total QBR: 68.6 | Pass Yds: 1,949 | Rush Yds (no sack): 396 | Total TDs: 14

He rushed back from a hand injury and played horribly against Texas, but he shifted back into “make all the key plays” mode in OU’s season-saving win at Tennessee, completing 12 of 16 passes and rushing for 58 yards in the second half. OU’s offense is more gritty than good, but the Sooners still have playoff hopes heading into mid-November.


Last Rank: 16 | Total QBR: 69.2 | Pass Yds: 2,128 | Rush Yds (no sack): 428 | Total TDs: 17

Things have gone south after September, just as they did for Castellanos in 2024. But despite the Seminoles losing five of their past six, he did produce brilliance — 271 passing yards on 12 completions, plus a rushing touchdown — against an excellent Wake Forest defense just two weeks ago. There’s still time to write a rebound story in November.


Last Rank: 46 | Total QBR: 65.9 | Pass Yds: 2,113 | Rush Yds (no sack): 503 | Total TDs: 27

He was the No. 1 pocket passer in the 2022 recruiting class, but Weigman has found his way in Houston as a dual-threat QB, averaging more than 10 non-sack rushes and 50 yards per game (he had 44 rushing yards in the fourth quarter alone in last week’s tight win over UCF). Add that to decent passing — 7.3 yards per dropback, 64.9% completion rate — and you have a QB capable of playing his part for an 8-2 team.


Last Rank: 41 | Total QBR: 63.1 | Pass Yds: 2,123 | Rush Yds (no sack): 308 | Total TDs: 24

Saddled with a surprisingly poor run game and a shaky line (122nd in pressure rate), Manning has been swimming upstream all season. He still holds on to the ball too long despite throwing tons of behind-the-line passes, and his footwork on downfield passes still betrays him, but he was good against Vanderbilt two weeks ago, and a great November would erase a lot of early-season stigma.


Last Rank: 13 | Total QBR: 66.6 | Pass Yds: 2,088 | Rush Yds (no sack): 303 | Total TDs: 16

Even before leaving last Saturday’s loss to Wake Forest with injury, Morris’ productivity was starting to wane — in terms of Total QBR, four of his five worst games have come in his past five games.

His status for Saturday’s huge game at Duke is uncertain — and a loss would crush UVA’s ACC title hopes — but this season has already been a spectacular life-giver for the Virginia program, and Morris played the largest possible role in that.


Last Rank: 68 | Total QBR: 69.2 | Pass Yds: 1,544 | Rush Yds (no sack): 191 | Total TDs: 13

Kentucky has won two straight and has produced maybe its three best performances in the past four games, and Boley’s improvement has contributed to that. In his past five starts, he has produced a 79.7 Total QBR with 10 passing touchdowns, two games over 250 passing yards and solid rushing. The four-star redshirt freshman is showing his potential.


Last Rank: 38 | Total QBR: 66.0 | Pass Yds: 1,671 | Rush Yds (no sack): 326 | Total TDs: 11

After encouraging performances against Wisconsin and Washington, Underwood has struggled of late, going a combined 21-for-39 for just 221 yards and a pick against Michigan State and Purdue. He gets plenty of help from his run game and defense, he scrambles well, and his pure arm talent is obvious, but the blue-chip freshman remains an extreme work in progress.


Last Rank: unranked | Total QBR: 67.2 | Pass Yds: 538 | Rush Yds (no sack): 226 | Total TDs: 4

I thought Daniels might win the starting QB job over Jackson Arnold in the offseason, and although I was incorrect about that … maybe he should have? Granted, his first start after replacing Arnold, against Kentucky, was bad enough to get Hugh Freeze fired, but he was outstanding in leading a near upset of Vanderbilt last Saturday. Let’s see if he can build on that in the season’s final two games.


Last Rank: 37 | Total QBR: 72.7 | Pass Yds: 1,927 | Rush Yds (no sack): 78 | Total TDs: 13

Woof. The good news for Nussmeier is that, when he was benched in favor of Michael Van Buren Jr. late against Alabama last week, nothing really improved. The bad news is that this has been an epic wasted year for the fifth-year senior and preseason All-America candidate. He has barely seemed healthy all season, and his offensive line regressed significantly.


Last Rank: 58 | Total QBR: 65.0 | Pass Yds: 1,659 | Rush Yds (no sack): 600 | Total TDs: 16

There’s no way to spin this season as a positive for Iamaleava, who voluntarily left a CFP team (Tennessee) to go 3-6 at UCLA, but he was vital to a three-game midseason winning streak that briefly brought life to a lifeless program, and his best game — 166 passing yards, 150 non-sack rushing yards, five combined touchdowns against Penn State — was a perfect showcase of his dual-threat potential.


Last Rank: 48 | Total QBR: 55.7 | Pass Yds: 2,056 | Rush Yds (no sack): 287 | Total TDs: 17

Playing the game on the hardest possible difficulty level is catching up with the true freshman. He is genuinely elite at escaping pressure — he has taken only two sacks from 96 pressures — but his productivity has slid during Maryland’s five-game losing streak. (No, his supporting cast hasn’t done him many favors: Maryland receivers’ 7.2% drop rate is the second worst in the power conferences.)


Last Rank: 24 | Total QBR: 61.2 | Pass Yds: 2,230 | Rush Yds (no sack): 217 | Total TDs: 20

Although ISU’s defense has been a big part of the Cyclones’ up-and-down season, allowing 14.7 points per game in wins and 31.8 in losses, Becht’s own play has prompted a lot of success (or lack thereof) as well.

  • Becht in six wins: 79.5 Total QBR, 48.4% success rate, 7.5 yards per dropback

  • Becht in four losses: 39.3 Total QBR, 39.6% success rate, 5.8 yards per dropback


Last Rank: unranked | Total QBR: 63.6 | Pass Yds: 466 | Rush Yds (no sack): 81 | Total TDs: 6

Easily the hardest guy on the list to evaluate. A true freshman, Lateef made his first start on Saturday, replacing the injured Dylan Raiola, and he completed his first 11 passes as the Huskers bolted to a big early lead and won. He ended up with only 15 passes and five rushes, but he produced a 98.7 Total QBR. A week earlier, his seven passes gained only 17 yards in a loss to USC. Which was the more accurate impression?


Last Rank: 45 | Total QBR: 60.1 | Pass Yds: 2,234 | Rush Yds (no sack): 250 | Total TDs: 16

He left last week’s loss to Georgia with injury, and we’ll see what his status is moving forward, but the grizzled veteran, who has started games in parts of five seasons but technically still has a year of eligibility left, could end up with career highs in passing yards, touchdowns and rushing yards this season, and MSU is one win from its first bowl bid in three years.


Last Rank: 49 | Total QBR: 51.0 | Pass Yds: 2,518 | Rush Yds (no sack): 71 | Total TDs: 15

Like Malik Washington, JKS has been playing on the highest difficulty level and hasn’t always shined. But after one of his worst performances of the season in a loss to Virginia, he responded with his best game to date, a 323-yard, two-touchdown performance in an upset of Louisville. He’s resilient and exciting; you could sort of say the same about Cal.


Last Rank: 33 | Total QBR: 66.1 | Pass Yds: 1,984 | Rush Yds (no sack): 438 | Total TDs: 21

After a run of diminishing form from Chiles, coach Jonathan Smith started Milivojevic in the past game against Minnesota. The redshirt freshman threw for 311 yards — more than Chiles in any start this season — but took seven sacks, and State fell in overtime. Smith was coy about who might start moving forward, but honestly, the defense has been the far bigger issue regardless.


Last Rank: 36 | Total QBR: 59.7 | Pass Yds: 2,132 | Rush Yds (no sack): 65 | Total TDs: 18

Last season at USC, Moss was good in September and benched in November. I’m not saying the same fate awaits in 2025, but his Total QBR slipped from 72.8 in his first four games to 60.8 in the next four, and he was abysmal in last week’s loss to Cal, averaging just 4.8 yards per dropback with an interception, two sacks and a late-game disappearing act.


Last Rank: 27 | Total QBR: 58.6 | Pass Yds: 1,536 | Rush Yds (no sack): 442 | Total TDs: 10

It just hasn’t clicked in 2025. Being burdened with a poor line and inconsistent skill corps has exacerbated all of Sellers’ worst tendencies. He has been sacked on 14.1% of dropbacks (132nd) and hit on 46.7% (121st), and he has had more games with fewer than 4.0 yards per dropback (three) than games above 8.0 (two). Dismal stuff in a dismal season.


Last Rank: 56 | Total QBR: 55.1 | Pass Yds: 1,592 | Rush Yds (no sack): 643 | Total TDs: 23

After the team’s dreadful start got Brent Pry fired, Drones’ play has improved from awful to merely inconsistent, and Tech has won three of its past six. His rushing has improved of late, but the passing game has never come around, and if the Hokies lose their last three games as projected, they’ll finish with their worst record since 1992. That’s not how Drones’ senior season was supposed to go.


Last Rank: 42 | Total QBR: 58.5 | Pass Yds: 1,743 | Rush Yds (no sack): 12 | Total TDs: 14

If you didn’t know Lindsey was a redshirt freshman, you could probably tell it from his game-to-game Total QBR chart.

He has produced a rating over 93.0 on two occasions, and two games ago at Iowa, he produced a 4.8. Season averages of 5.7 yards per dropback and a 41.8% success rate are not amazing.


52. Jeff Sims, Arizona State

Last Rank: unranked | Total QBR: 59.4 | Pass Yds: 359 | Rush Yds (no sack): 370 | Total TDs: 4

You know what you’re going to get with Jeff Sims at this point. The journeyman, starting with Sam Leavitt’s season-ending injury, can run as well as anyone, as evidenced by his 100 non-sack rushing yards against Utah and 228 against Iowa State. But if you’re relying on his arm, you’re going to be disappointed. He’s completing 51% of his passes and averaging 4.7 yards per dropback.


Last Rank: 57 | Total QBR: 57.4 | Pass Yds: 1,084 | Rush Yds (no sack): 412 | Total TDs: 17

The celebrated FCS transfer has found his way in Iowa City, contributing good things to the run game and nearly helping Iowa to knock off Oregon with a late rushing touchdown (his 12th of the season) last Saturday. But the passing numbers — 5.3 yards per dropback, 9.3 per completion — are extremely subpar. Iowa has averaged just 14.7 points in three losses with Gronowski primarily at the wheel.


Last Rank: unranked | Total QBR: 67.7 | Pass Yds: 562 | Rush Yds (no sack): 21 | Total TDs: 3

Thrust into the lineup after Drew Allar’s injury, the redshirt freshman is slowly taking on more responsibility, and his numbers are rising slowly. His 219 passing yards and 78.6 Total QBR helped to nearly pull off an upset of Indiana last week, but he has thrown just one TD pass to four INTs in three starts. There’s still a learning curve here.


Last Rank: 61 | Total QBR: 57.9 | Pass Yds: 1,762 | Rush Yds (no sack): 138 | Total TDs: 11

You know it’s a lost season when your passes don’t really go anywhere (10.3 yards per completion, 116th nationally), but you’re still near the bottom in interception rate (4.5%, 129th) and you’re taking plenty of sacks (5.0% sack rate, 61st). Lagway was excellent in the upset of Texas, but his Total QBR has sunk back to 56.2 since then.


Last Rank: 44 | Total QBR: 58.0 | Pass Yds: 1,898 | Rush Yds (no sack): 277 | Total TDs: 13

He has had some bright moments this season — three 300-yard games, four games with a Total QBR over 75.0 — but this is another “high difficulty level” job, and everything has regressed of late. After starting 2-0, Browne’s Boilers have lost eight in a row, averaging just 12.5 points per game in the past four.


Last Rank: 40 | Total QBR: 58.5 | Pass Yds: 2,097 | Rush Yds (no sack): 547 | Total TDs: 22

Deion Sanders has changed his starting QB three times (Salter, then Staub, then Salter, then Lewis) and changed his playcaller last week. With Lewis (a blue-chip freshman) and new coordinator Brett Bartolone (a Mike Leach disciple), the Buffs’ offense perked up but got only 22 points from Lewis’ 299 yards, and CU fell to 3-7. It’s a lost season — might as well keep finding out what Lewis and Bartolone can do.


Last Rank: unranked | Total QBR: 57.5 | Pass Yds: 290 | Rush Yds (no sack): 16 | Total TDs: 2

Zollers basically pulled a reverse Lateef, nearly saving Mizzou against Vanderbilt after Beau Pribula dislocated his ankle but then laying an egg in his first career start. Having to face Texas A&M’s pass rush right out of the gate was a bit cruel, but he missed makeable passes, too, while going just 7-of-22. The former blue-chipper could still be the Tigers’ future, but he’s a clear work in progress in the present.


Last Rank: 64 | Total QBR: 50.6 | Pass Yds: 825 | Rush Yds (no sack): 248 | Total TDs: 8

Five different QBs have taken snaps for WVU this year, and it says something that Fox has been the clear standout of the bunch while averaging just 5.7 yards per dropback and 3.9 yards per carry (no sacks) in four starts. Still, the Mountaineers have won two straight, scoring 74 points in the process. That’s definitely an improvement!


Last Rank: 67 | Total QBR: 50.0 | Pass Yds: 1,522 | Rush Yds (no sack): 89 | Total TDs: 11

Northwestern’s defense is good enough that, as long as Stone hits a Total QBR of 50.0 or more, the Wildcats will probably win. They’re 5-1 when he does so, but unfortunately he has fallen far short of that mark in three other losses. Still, at 96th in offensive SP+, this is NU’s best offense since 2020.


Last Rank: 60 | Total QBR: 39.6 | Pass Yds: 1,940 | Rush Yds (no sack): 417 | Total TDs: 13

Wake is a surprising 6-3 thanks to a defense that ranks 12th in yards allowed per play and 24th in defensive SP+. But the offense has vanished of late, averaging 12.0 points per game in its past three with Ashford and Purdie combining to complete just 49% of their passes. Ashford’s a good runner, but Wake’s winning despite the offense.


Last Rank: 52 | Total QBR: 50.8 | Pass Yds: 2,563 | Rush Yds (no sack): 214 | Total TDs: 18

James was pretty good late in 2024, but Lonergan, an Alabama transfer, beat him out for the starting job this season. Both have gotten ample playing time, and neither has done much. Lonergan has completed 67% of his passes, but they haven’t gone anywhere. James can run a little bit but throws too many picks and takes too many sacks. Pretty dire stuff.


Last Rank: 53 | Total QBR: 49.6 | Pass Yds: 1,470 | Rush Yds (no sack): 131 | Total TDs: 8

After cycling through a few options because of injuries, Scott Frost has given most of the work to Jackson of late but hasn’t really been rewarded for it. He was excellent in a blowout of West Virginia in Week 8, but UCF has lost four of its past five, and his cumulative performance in those losses — 19.1 Total QBR, 4.3 yards per dropback, 0-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio — has been atrocious.


Last Rank: 59 | Total QBR: 33.5 | Pass Yds: 2,315 | Rush Yds (no sack): 36 | Total TDs: 11

A journeyman’s journeyman, Gulbranson provided a beautiful moment for a bad team with his last-minute, game-winning drive against San Jose State. Otherwise, he and Brown have combined to lead an offense that ranks 126th in points per drive and 128th in yards per play.


65. Gio Lopez, North Carolina

Last Rank: 66 | Total QBR: 44.4 | Pass Yds: 1,224 | Rush Yds (no sack): 186 | Total TDs: 10

I really liked Lopez at South Alabama last season, but in a lineup with almost no standout talent, he obviously hasn’t made things happen. He’s 108th in Total QBR, 105th in yards per dropback and 123rd in passing success rate, and he hasn’t scrambled very effectively either. Tough year.


Last Rank: 63 | Total QBR: 28.7 | Pass Yds: 1,042 | Rush Yds (no sack): 235 | Total TDs: 7

Collins has provided some useful moments with his legs, especially against SMU, but his struggles in replacing the injured Steve Angeli were bad enough that coach Fran Brown went to walk-on freshman Joseph Filardi against North Carolina. When that failed miserably, he went back to Collins.


67. Carter Smith (or the punter, or whoever Wisconsin’s sending out there this week), Wisconsin

Last Rank: 62 | Total QBR: 25.8 | Pass Yds: 1,241 | Rush Yds (no sack): 243 | Total TDs: 9

Wisconsin pulled the most Big Ten thing imaginable last Saturday, upsetting Washington 13-10 with its punter, Sean West, leading the team in passing yards. Smith, a true freshman, went just 3-for-12 for 8 yards (and 16 yards lost from two sacks) in his first action of the season, but he did rush 13 times for 63 yards to keep the field position battle somewhat neutralized. That’s something!


68. All sorts of guys, Oklahoma State

Last Rank: 65 | Total QBR: 35.8 | Pass Yds: 1,365 | Rush Yds (no sack): 227 | Total TDs: 6

Five different quarterbacks have taken snaps for OSU this season, and since Hauss Hejny got hurt in Week 1, the other four — Zane Flores, Sam Jackson V, Noah Walters and Banks Bowen — have combined to lose eight straight starts and average 13.8 points per game. Incredibly, the defense has been even worse, but the offense wasn’t going to win any games regardless.

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Hicks, ex-owner of Rangers and Stars, dies at 79

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Hicks, ex-owner of Rangers and Stars, dies at 79

DALLAS — Tom Hicks, the Texas businessman and philanthropist who owned two Dallas-area professional sports franchises and an English Premier League soccer team, died Saturday. He was 79.

Spokesperson Lisa LeMaster said in statement that Hicks died peacefully in Dallas surrounded by family.

Hicks owned the NHL’s Dallas Stars from 1995 to 2011, winning the Stanley Cup in 1999. He also owned baseball’s Texas Rangers from 1998 to 2010, leading them to three American West Division titles and a World Series appearance. In 2007, he acquired a 50% stake in Liverpool.

“Being shoulder to shoulder with him was always about more than ballparks and stadiums, though,” Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said in a statement. “It was about personal respect, trust and friendship. We shared a lot of miles together, and I’ll miss him greatly. My heart goes out to his family.”

Hicks co-founded Hicks & Haas in 1984 and helped reshape private equity and investing strategy. He served on the University of Texas’s board of regents from 1994 to 1999.

“Tom Hicks was an innovative businessman and a pioneer in private equity,” fellow Texas businessman Ross Perot Jr. said in a statement. “He combined his commitment to business and sports through his ownership of the Stars and the Rangers.”

Hicks is survived by his wife of 35 years, Cinda Cree Hicks, and his six children — Thomas Ollis Hicks Jr., Mack Hardin Hicks, John Alexander Hicks, Robert Bradley Hicks, William Cree Hicks and Catherine Forgrave Hicks.

His children released a joint statement, saying:

“Of everything he accomplished in his remarkable life, Tom Hicks’s most cherished title was, ‘Dad.’ No matter the trials and tribulations he faced in life, he was constant in his generosity and love for his family. He remains a guiding force for our family, and we are deeply honored to continue expanding his legacy. Although we are devastated by this loss, we are profoundly grateful to have been his children.”

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Final bowl projections: Predicting every postseason game

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Final bowl projections: Predicting every postseason game

After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?

We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.

Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

All times Eastern

Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN

Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT

Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon

Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma


CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 31

CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech

Thursday, Jan. 1

CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State

CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana

CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia


CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 8

CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia

Friday, Jan. 9

CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana

Monday, Jan. 19

CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State

Complete bowl season schedule

Matchups in bold have already been announced

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC

South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M

Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN

Old Dominion vs. South Florida

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN

Louisiana vs. Delaware

Thursday, Dec. 18

Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2

Missouri State vs. Arkansas State

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN

California vs. Hawai’i

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC

Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network

Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC

Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri

Monday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS

Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC

Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN

Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona

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Projecting the final CFP top 12: Where does Alabama land?

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Projecting the final CFP top 12: Where does Alabama land?

Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.

It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.

With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.

Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?

Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.

Jump to:
Ranking | Bracket

Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.

Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.

Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.


Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.

Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.

Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.


Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.

Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.

Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).


Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.

Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.

Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).


Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.

Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.

Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.


Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.

Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.

Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.


Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.

Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.

Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.


Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.

Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.

Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.


Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.

Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.

Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.


Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.

Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.

Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.


Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.

Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.

Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.


Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.

Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.

Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana

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