Brad Marchand, Steven Stamkos and the NHL’s other shocking performers so far
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Greg Wyshynski
The first month of the 2025-26 NHL season has offered its share of surprises, from unexpected playoff contenders to teams failing to meet their lofty preseason expectations.
The same goes for NHL players, some of whom have started the season at a torrid pace and others who have been statistical disasters.
Here’s a look at 10 shockingly good performances to start the season … and five shockingly bad ones that hopefully won’t continue on too much longer.
Shockingly good
2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 11 G | 15 A
This season has been two years in the making for Carlsson.
After the Ducks selected him second overall in 2023, Anaheim applied load management to his rookie season, when Carlsson played 55 games. His sophomore campaign saw him start to fulfill his potential with 20 goals and 25 assists in 76 games. But now we’re seeing Carlsson unleashed: 26 points (11 goals, 15 assists) through 16 games for the Ducks, powering them to the top of the Pacific Division in the first month of the season.
What’s changed? The coach, for one. Joel Quenneville has helped turn the Ducks into a puck-possession juggernaut, and Carlsson’s offensive explosion is a result of it. So far this season, the Ducks are generating 58.7% of the shot attempts and 59.6% of the scoring chances with big Leo on the ice. That’s way up over the average of the last two seasons for Carlsson in shot attempts (48.7%) and scoring chances (48%). He has also scored nine points on the Ducks’ power play, which has caught fire after being the worst in the league last season.
“Leo’s really taken off,” Anaheim GM Pat Verbeek told ESPN this week. “I think with the younger guys, Joel preaches it every single day: Puck possession, hang onto it and if we lose it, we got to get it back fast. I think that has resonated well and the guys have taken to it. They’ve been executing and they’ve been getting rewarded for that.”
2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 4 G | 5 A
Unfortunately for a franchise seeking its first playoff berth since “Fast Five” was in theaters, there once again haven’t been many bright spots for the Buffalo Sabres to start this season. Josh Doan is a glaring exception, with four goals and five assists in 16 games.
The son of former NHL great Shane Doan was acquired from Utah in the JJ Peterka trade back in June. Doan had seven goals and 12 assists in 51 games as a rookie for the Hockey Club last season in limited ice time (13:31 per game). He’s getting more ice time (15:28) with the Sabres, and putting more shots on goal (9.6 per 60 minutes) than he did last season (7.3) at 5-on-5. He’s also getting way more power-play time than he did in Utah as well.
Doan is a solid two-way player who is building his case for an expanded role this season.
2025-26 stats: 12 GP | 2.46 GAA | .923 SV%
For years, Knight was the goalie of the future for the Florida Panthers. But inconsistency, health matters and the stubborn refusal of playoff hero Sergei Bobrovsky to abdicate the throne saw the Panthers trade him to Chicago in the Seth Jones deal.
He was fine last season in 15 starts for Chicago, going 5-8-1. He’s been a revelation through 12 games so far this season for the improved Blackhawks, with a .923 save percentage and a 2.46 goals-against average. Entering Wednesday night, Knight led the NHL with 13.3 goals saved above expected.
While new coach Jeff Blashill is trying to improve his young team with an aggressive system in the defensive zone, the results aren’t quite there yet. But Knight has been there every time they’ve needed him, dramatically decreasing the average number of high-danger goals the Blackhawks have given up compared to last season.
2025-26 stats: 15 GP | 11 G | 7 A
When the Panthers needed a hero in the Stanley Cup Final, Brad Marchand responded with the best playoff series of his life with six goals in six games. When the Panthers needed a hero to start this season – with superstars Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk lost to injury – Marchand responded with one of the best opening months of his NHL career.
The 37-year-old winger has 11 goals in 15 games for the Panthers, including a five-game goal streak he continued in a 3-2 win over the Vegas Golden Knights. He has 18 points in that span with seven assists, having played with his usual linemates Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen as well as up with Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett.
“His hands are so quick,” Florida coach Paul Maurice said after the Vegas game. “He’s a good player when you coached against him for years, but you get on the ice in practice and see those goals, it’s just exceptional.”
Down two key players, Marchand’s efforts are keeping the Panthers afloat until at least Tkachuk can return in December or January. He has been their MVP. No wonder GM Bill Zito signed Marchand through 2030-31.
2025-26 stats: 17 GP | 9 G | 7 A
Ah, the halcyon days of the 2022-23 season. The Devils eliminated the New York Rangers to advance to the second round of the playoffs. Jack Hughes played 78 games. And Dawson Mercer had a breakout season with 56 points in 82 games, including 27 goals.
Mercer was unable to build on that offensive explosion over the next two seasons, dipping to 33 points in 2023-24 and then 36 points last season with 19 goals. He was inconstant and ineffective, unable to maintain a spot in the team’s top six next to center Nico Hischier. But he put in the work during the offseason and now it’s hard to imagine Mercer not playing in the top six after a stellar start.
Skating the majority of the time with Hischier and Timo Meier, Mercer had nine goals and seven assists in his first 17 games, skating to a team-best plus-9 rating. He’s earned his top-six minutes with strong efforts in all zones.
Yes, Mercer put in the work during the offseason to improve his game. But as coach Sheldon Keefe has noted, it does also help that Mercer didn’t miss a chunk of camp like he did last season during restricted free-agent contract talks.
2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 5 G | 7 A
Islanders fans knew they were getting a charisma cannon in Schaefer. The 18-year-old defenseman had displayed an infectious enthusiasm since being drafted first overall in June, providing a vital vibe shift for a franchise desperately trying to locate a personality after years of Lou Lamoriello homogeny.
What those fans might not have anticipated: That Schaefer could jump right into the NHL and be one of its most effective defensemen through the first month of the season. Schaefer has 12 points in 16 games for the Islanders, skating 22:13 per game. Six of those points have come on the power play, which has gone from second worst in the NHL last season to 22nd overall. New York scores 57.8% of the goals when Schaefer is on the ice.
He’s been anything but sheltered for the Islanders, starting just 53% of his shifts in the offensive zone. With a stick-tap to Bo Horvat‘s incredible goal-scoring start (12 goals in 16 games), Schaefer’s instant impact has been one of the more pleasant surprises for the Islanders and the NHL.
2025-26 stats: 18 GP | 11 G | 1 A
Will Kiefer Sherwood finish the season with 57 goals, based on his current scoring pace, despite previously tapping out as a career high of 19 goals last season? Will he continue to shoot 29.7% for the Canucks? Will be continue to battle the likes of Nathan MacKinnon and Sidney Crosby for the Rocket Richard Trophy, as is his current status?
The answer to all of these is likely “no” followed by a bemused chuckle, but that these questions can even be asked at the moment is why Kiefer Sherwood’s season is so astonishing. The Canucks winger has started the season with 11 goals in 18 games for 12 points overall. Yes, that’s correct: Every single point Kiefer Sherwood has scored this season has been a goal — save for one assist on a Brock Boeser goal on Nov. 8. And it was a primary assist, no less!
This video game glitch of a start for Sherwood has enchanted Vancouver fans, building on his cult hero status. (Witness @DailyWoody, which combines on- and off-ice coverage with Kiefer Sherwood memes.) It’s probably important to mention that Sherwood is in a contract year ahead of unrestricted free agency. Cha-ching.
2025-26 stats: 15 GP | 0 G | 6 A
When Alex Pietrangelo announced he was stepping away from the NHL due to rehab a prolonged hip injury, the Golden Knights knew they’d need more from Shea Theodore. That he’d answer the bell isn’t shocking, as Theodore has been the second-best defenseman on the Knights since Pietrangelo arrived in 2020. It’s how incredibly well he’s played in that expanded role.
Theodore, 30, has six points in his first 15 games, having his ice time jump from 22 minutes per game last season to 24:16 on average this season. But his underlying numbers are incredible, despite taking on tougher assignments: Vegas is averaging 0.89 goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with Theodore on the ice. Only two other defensemen in the league are averaging under a goal per 60 minutes (min. 200 minutes): Matt Roy of the Washington Capitals and Will Borgen of the New York Rangers.
Theodore and partner Brayden McNabb aren’t setting the world ablaze offensively, but they’ve been a good as it gets as a shutdown pair.
2025-26 stats: 14 GP | 2.26 GAA | .913 SV%
The Avalanche have started the season 11-1-5 for 27 points, best in the NHL. Yet starting goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood has played in only two of these games, as he was still recovering from surgery in May to correct a lower-body issue. When the starter goes down, it’s up to the backup to step in and hold down the fort. Wedgewood has gone well beyond that call of duty.
The 33-year-old journeyman — the Avs are his fifth NHL team since 2021 — has a 10-1-2 record with a .913 save percentage and a 2.26 goals-against average. Granted, when a team is hitting the scoreboard with four goals per game on average, a goalie can breathe a bit easier. But Wedgewood has also saved 6.0 goals above expected this season in back of the Colorado defense.
Blackwood returned to the Avs this week, which means Wedgewood could see his action decrease. But when Colorado thinks back to the .794 points-percentage season that propelled them at the start, the job Wedgewood’s done is a key reason for it.
(Stick tap to defenseman Sam Malinski, another Avalanche surprise early in the season.)
2025-26 stats: 10 GP | 2.15 GAA | .919 SV%
The Flyers looking for goaltending stability is a tale as old as time. After three goalies combined for a .872 team save percentage last season, worst in the NHL, GM Daniel Briere signed one of the few decent free-agent options on the market in Vladar to a two-year deal. The 28-year-old goalie had spent four seasons in Calgary as the crease-mate of Jacob Markstrom and then rookie Dustin Wolf. His stats weren’t always stellar — .895 save parentage in 100 games with the Flames — but he was a gamer.
Now, he’s arguably the Flyers’ MVP early in the season.
Philly is 8-5-3 through 16 games under Rick Tocchet, sitting in a wild-card spot entering Wednesday night. Vladar won six of those games against three losses, with a .919 save percentage and six goals saved above expected.
Shockingly bad
2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 3 G | 0 A
Kasper, the eighth overall pick in 2022, showed strong potential as a rookie last season with 19 goals and 18 assists in 77 games for the Red Wings. Strong enough that Detroit had him slotted with Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane on their second scoring line. But that trio didn’t click, generating just 1.82 goals per 60 minutes together. Kasper’s lack of production was a huge factor there, with just three goals and no assists in 16 games so far this season, skating to a minus-6.
Coach Todd McLellan demoted him to third-line winger recently.
“His play hasn’t matched what we expected from him,” said the coach, who said Kasper hasn’t shown the same battle level as last season and is now in his own head. “It happens to a lot of second or third-year players. Marco’s going through that right now.”
2025-26 stats: 9 GP | 3.52 GAA | .861 SV%
To be clear, there are other contenders for the most disappointing goaltender so far this season. Jordan Binnington of the St. Louis Blues has gotten more attention for the puck he tried to steal than the ones that he’s stopped. Ottawa Senators goalie Linus Ullmark is last in the NHL in goals saved above expected according to Money Puck, with minus-7.9 through 14 games.
The difference between those two and Montembeault, however, is that a good portion of their pain is team-related. Ullmark’s save percentage isn’t far off from crease-mate Leevi Merilainen. Ditto Binnington’s with Joel Hofer, who has arguably had a worse season so far. But as good as rookie Jakub Dobes has been for Montreal (.920 save percentage through seven games), that’s how bad as Montembeault has been for them.
The 29-year-old goaltender is 4-4-1 through nine games with an .861 save percentage. He’s second to Ullmark for worst goals saved above expected (minus-7.1). Analytically, he’s been the worst 5-on-5 goalie in the league so far this season for netminders with his workload, and has the second-worst wins above replacement in the NHL.
(Please note that all three goalies from Canada’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster — Binnington, Montembeault and Vegas’s Adin Hill — are all off to lousy starts this season as they try to defend their Olympic roster spots from goalies such as Logan Thompson and Darcy Kuemper, who have both been outstanding to start the season. Curious, isn’t it?)
2025-26 stats: 16 GP | 3 G | 6 A
Point was named to Team Canada’s preliminary Olympic roster back in June. His start has been so mediocre — by his standards — that at least one Canadian columnist lamented that Point has a roster spot that could be otherwise given to Connor Bedard or another player off to a better season.
That is, of course, absurd. Point is one of the NHL’s elite, who has scored more goals over the last three seasons (139) than Nathan MacKinnon (125). That established, it’s been an underwhelming first 16 games for Point: three goals, six assists and skating to a minus-11 rating for a player who was a plus-17 last season.
One issue is his shot generation. Point’s shot attempts (8.5 per 60 minutes) are down off his two-season average (12.8) at 5-on-5, which has led to his shots on goal (5.6) also declining from that average (6.8).
Again, he should be fine. Skating with Nikita Kucherov, those numbers will trend up soon. But it has not been the strongest start.
2025-26 stats: 18 GP | 3 G | 1 A
For most of his career, goals were never really hard to come by for Stamkos. Which is one reason the first 18 games of his season with the Predators have been nightmarish for the 35-year-old. He has three goals so far this season. That’s a 14-goal pace in an 82-game season for a player that’s scored 585 goals in his career.
He’s trying to keep his optimism up.
“Something you learn as you get older or go through certain experiences is the negative stuff never helps,” he said Monday. “And we all do it, no matter what aspect in life when things aren’t going well. It’s the negative self-talk. It’s the ‘poor me’ kind of card, but it never works. You sink in deeper.”
But this start for Stamkos — three goals, one assist in 18 games — has already sparked speculation that Nashville will approach him with the idea of trading him, assuming someone else believes all Stamkos needs is a change in scenery.
2025-26 stats: 18 GP | 0 G | 4 A
Weegar has been a solid offensive contributor over the last five seasons, including 52 and 47 points for the Flames in the last two campaigns. So it’s a bit jarring to see him start with just four assists in 18 games for Calgary, two of them at even strength and two of them at 5-on-5. The Flames are averaging 1.32 goals per 60 minutes with Weegar on the ice at even strength so far this season.
While offense has been a primary problem for the Flames, as they rank last in the NHL in goals per game, it’s been a total systems breakdown in Calgary. That’s clear from Weegar’s minus-17 this season, for a player who’s only finished in the negative once during his 10-season NHL career. He’s played at least 10 minutes with seven defensive partners this season as the Flames try to find a winning mix.
Whether players are struggling or surging at the start, the key phrase here is “at the start.” There’s still plenty of season left to go to erase these bad vibe — or to experience a reversal of fortunes for the early-season stars.
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?
We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
All times Eastern
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Complete bowl season schedule
Matchups in bold have already been announced
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M
Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Louisiana vs. Delaware
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
California vs. Hawai’i
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.
It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.
With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.
Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?
Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.
Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.
Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.
Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.
Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.
Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.
Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.
Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).
Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.
Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.
Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.
Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.
Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.
Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.
Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.
Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.
Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.
Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.
Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.
Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.
Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.
Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.
Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.
Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.
Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.
Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
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