Economy grew by 0.1% in third quarter, official figures show
The UK’s economic slowdown gathered further momentum during the third quarter of the year with growth of just 0.1%, according to an early official estimate that makes horrific reading for the chancellor.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a surprise contraction for economic output during September of -0.1% – with some of the downwards pressure being applied by the cyber attack disruption to production at Jaguar Land Rover.
The figures for July-September followed on the back of a 0.3% growth performance over the previous three months and the 0.7% expansion achieved between January and March.
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Growth ‘slightly worse than expected’
The encouraging start to 2025 was soon followed by the worst of Donald Trump’s trade war salvoes and the implementation of budget measures that placed employers on the hook for £25bn of extra taxes.
Economists have blamed those factors since for pushing up inflation and harming investment and employment.
ONS director of economic statistics, Liz McKeown, said: “Growth slowed further in the third quarter of the year with both services and construction weaker than in the previous period. There was also a further contraction in production.
“Across the quarter as a whole, manufacturing drove the weakness in production. There was a particularly marked fall in car production in September, reflecting the impact of a cyber incident, as well as a decline in the often-erratic pharmaceutical industry.
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What next for the UK economy?
“Services were the main contributor to growth in the latest quarter, with business rental and leasing, live events and retail performing well, partially offset by falls in R&D [research and development] and hair and beauty salons.”
When measured by per head of population- a preferred measure of living standards – zero growth was registered during the third quarter.
The weaker-than-expected figures will add fuel to expectations that the Bank of England can cut interest rates at its December meeting after November’s hold.
The vast majority of financial market participants now expect a reduction to 3.75% from 4% on 18 December.
Data earlier this week showed the UK’s unemployment rate at 5% – up from 4.1% when Labour came to power with a number one priority of growing the economy.
Since then, the government’s handling of the economy has centred on its stewardship of the public finances.
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Chancellor questioned by Sky News
The chancellor was accused by business groups of harming private sector investment and employment through hikes to minimum wage levels and employer national insurance contributions.
The Bank has backed the assertion that hiring and staff retention has been hit as a result of those extra costs.
There is also evidence that rising employment costs have been passed on to consumers and contributed to the UK’s stubbornly high rate of inflation of 3.8% – a figure that is now expected to ease considerably in the coming months.
Rachel Reeves has blamed other factors – such as Brexit and the US trade war – for weighing on the economy, leaving her facing a similar black hole to the one she says she inherited from the Conservatives.
Her second budget is due on 26 November.
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She said of the latest economic data: “We had the fastest-growing economy in the G7 in the first half of the year, but there’s more to do to build an economy that works for working people.
“At my budget later this month, I will take the fair decisions to build a strong economy that helps us to continue to cut waiting lists, cut the national debt and cut the cost of living.”
Shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride responded: “Today’s ONS figures show the economy shrank in the latest month, under a Prime Minister and Chancellor who are in office but not in power.”
Police are investigating after a “number of people” were believed to have been attacked with pepper spray by a group of men who then fled.
Officers were called at 8.11am to a multi-storey car park at Terminal 3 following reports of multiple people being assaulted, said the Metropolitan Police.
A statement by the force said: “A number of people were sprayed with what is believed to be a form of pepper spray by a group of men who then left the scene.”
What we know so far
• Several assaulted with ‘pepper spray’
• One arrest – police hunt for more suspects
• Incident said to involve people known to each other
• Incident not being treated as terrorism
• 21 people treated by ambulance service – five taken to hospital
• Injuries not believed to be life-threatening
• Traffic disruption reported – but train lines since reopened
Live updates on Heathrow incident
Fire engines responding to the incident at Heathrow Airport. Pic: @_umarjaved
Armed police attended and one man was arrested on suspicion of assault. He remains in custody and enquiries continue to trace further suspects.
Police are not treating the Heathrow incident as terrorism.
London Ambulance Service also attended the scene and treated 21 people, including five who were taken to hospital. Their injuries are not believed to be life-changing or life-threatening.
There is currently some disruption to traffic in the area and Terminal 3 remains open.
Increased police presence
Commander Peter Stevens said: “At this stage, we believe the incident involved a group of people known to each other, with an argument escalating and resulting in a number of people being injured.
“Our officers responded quickly and there will be an increased police presence at Heathrow Airport throughout the morning, to continue enquiries and ensure the safety of those in the area.
“We are not treating this incident as terrorism. I understand the public’s concerns and would like to thank those in the area for their cooperation this morning.”
A person is detained at the airport. Pic: @_umarjaved
‘Significant incident’
The London Ambulance Service said a “significant incident” was declared.
There was a “full deployment” of resources and the ambulance service is treating it as ongoing.
A London Fire Brigade spokesperson said: “We were called at 8.14am today to assist emergency service colleagues at an incident near Terminal 3 at Heathrow Airport. Firefighters remain at the scene.”
Heathrow is advising passengers to allow extra time when travelling to the airport and to check with their airline for any queries.
There was disruption to train and Tube services, with some delays on the Elizabeth Line and the Piccadilly Line.
National Rail said on its website that lines had been reopened allowing trains to call at Heathrow “following the emergency services dealing with an incident at the airport”.
It said: “Although lines have now reopened, disruption is expected to continue whilst services return to normal, delays of up to 10 minutes and cancellations can be expected until 11.45am.”
National Highways East said on X: “A serious incident within the @HeathrowAirport Tunnel has resulted in the closure of the #M4 spur road southbound between M4 and J4A.
“@metpoliceuk responding. We’ll keep you updated.”
It later said: “Incident has been resolved and all closures lifted on the #M4 southbound @HeathrowAirport spur road between #M4 and J4A.”
People on social media have reported vehicles were being searched at the airport.
A user on X said there was a “major backlog of cars unable to leave the vicinity or enter the drop-off zone” at Terminal 3.
In footage on X, several armed police were seen in a car park.
England and Scotland fans have found out where their World Cup group games will be played when the tournament kicks off in June.
England, who are in Group L, will begin their tournament against Croatia in Dallas at 4pm EST (9pm BST) on 17 June. They will then go on to face Ghana in Boston at 4pm EST (9pm BST) on 23 June and Panama in New Jersey, New York, at 5pm EST (10pm BST) on 27 June.
Scotland are in Group C, and their first match will be against Haiti in Boston at 9pm EST on 13 June (2am GMT the following morning).
They will go up against Morocco also in Boston at 6pm EST (11pm GMT) on 19 June and then Brazil in Miami at 6pm EST (11pm GMT) on 24 June.
Fans are expected to rush to sort their travel and accommodation plans now that they know where and when the matches take place.
Read more: Unapologetically political – a World Cup draw like no other
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England and Scotland learn World Cup fate
Wales and Northern Ireland have yet to find out if they will qualify.
Wales must face a play-off against Bosnia and Herzegovina in Cardiff, then either Italy or Northern Ireland, if they are victorious.
If they beat these play-off opponents, they will secure their place in Group B alongside Canada, Qatar and Switzerland.
However, Northern Ireland will also be vying to guarantee their spot in the same group if they can beat Italy and then either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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UK
World Cup 2026 – who England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will play
Scotland and England now know who they will face in the group stage of the next summer’s world cup.
But the fates of Northern Ireland, the Republic of Ireland and Wales won’t be determined until they compete in pre-tournament play-off matches in March.
England are in Group L along with Croatia, Panama and Ghana. Their first match will be against Croatia, who beat them in the semi-finals of the 2018 World Cup in Russia.
Pic: Reuters
Scotland’s first match will be against Haiti, in Group C.
Brazil and Morocco are the other Group C teams – both countries were also in the same opening group as Scotland in the 1998 World Cup in France.
Trump and Infantino at the World Cup draw
Wales have yet to find out if they will qualify as they must face a play-off against Bosnia and Herzegovina in Cardiff, and then either Italy or Northern Ireland, if they are victorious.
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If they can overcome these play-off opponents then they will secure their place in Group B along with Canada, Qatar and Switzerland. But Northern Ireland will also be vying and hoping to guarantee their spot in the same group if they can beat Italy and then either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina.
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‘Bring it on!’: Scotland fans react to World Cup draw
The Republic of Ireland also need to get through the play-offs first and are paired against the Czech Republic for their semi-final. Should Ireland win that match, they will need to beat either North Macedonia or Denmark to get to the finals where an opening group containing joint hosts Mexico, South Africa and South Korea awaits.
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