Inside Ty Simpson’s journey from Bama benchwarmer to Heisman hopeful
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Mark Schlabach
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. — On Jan. 10, 2024, two days after backup quarterback Ty Simpson decided to remain at Alabama rather than transfer, Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban announced his retirement, ending his remarkable 17-year run at the school that included six national championships.
Even though Saban was no longer in charge, he still found time to give Simpson one more ass chewing while he was cleaning out his office.
Many times during the previous two seasons, when Simpson was stuck behind starters Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe, Saban warned him about being too focused on the outcome and what others were doing rather than trying to improve.
“To be honest with you, it kind of pissed me off because I didn’t think it made any sense,” Simpson said. “I thought he just wanted me out of his office.”
That was Saban’s departing message to Simpson as well.
“He was brutally honest,” Simpson said. “He was like, ‘You’re such a good kid. I’m a huge fan and love you, but you have to take that next step. You can’t be doing this.'”
Simpson’s meteoric rise from being a player who couldn’t get on the field to having the third-best odds to win the Heisman Trophy and being a potential top-5 pick in the 2026 NFL draft wasn’t easy.
After a stunning season-opening slip against Florida State, the No. 4 Crimson Tide (8-1, 6-0 SEC) have won eight games in a row heading into Saturday’s SEC showdown against No. 12 Oklahoma (7-2, 3-2) at Bryant-Denny Stadium (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
“I think that if we don’t lose that first game, we wouldn’t be where we are, to be honest with you,” Simpson said. “I think the first game made us self-reflect and made us understand, like, ‘All right, what are we going to do now?'”
WHEN ALABAMA SIGNED Simpson, it was widely believed in the program that he would eventually replace Young, who was chosen by the Carolina Panthers with the No. 1 pick of the 2023 NFL draft.
Simpson had the talent and background: He was the No. 2 dual-threat quarterback in the Class of 2022 in ESPN’s recruiting rankings. He was the Tennessee Gatorade Player of the Year after throwing for 2,827 yards with 41 touchdowns while leading Westview High to a Class 2A state championship as a senior. And Simpson had been around the sport his entire life. His father, Jason, is in his 20th season as head coach at FCS program Tennessee-Martin.
During his first two seasons at Alabama, however, Simpson couldn’t get out of his own way. After redshirting as a freshman, he couldn’t beat out Milroe for the starting QB job and attempted just 20 passes in six games in Saban’s final season in 2023.
According to Saban, Simpson couldn’t overtake Milroe because he spent too much time beating himself up.
“He was wound so tight and was always looking at how well he did compared to how well somebody else did,” said Saban, who now works as an analyst for ESPN. “It was almost like a guy in competition to see who sells the most cars. They’re scurrying around worrying about what the other guys are doing, not totally focused on what they’re doing. If he made a bad play, he’d get totally frustrated about it and make another bad play.”
After the Crimson Tide hired Washington’s Kalen DeBoer two days after Saban’s sudden retirement, Simpson’s first encounter with his new coach didn’t go well, either. It was little more than a brief handshake, as Simpson remembers it.
“I just introduced myself, and he kind of blew me off,” Simpson said. “He was like, ‘Yeah, we’ll meet everybody later.'”
As Simpson watched DeBoer spend time with Milroe, he wondered if it was still the right decision to remain at Alabama. When Washington quarterback Austin Mack announced he was transferring to join his coach, Simpson requested a meeting with DeBoer to figure out where he stood with the new staff.
At the time, Alabama’s quarterback room also included Julian Sayin, the No. 2 dual-threat passer in the Class of 2024. Sayin transferred to Ohio State nine days after DeBoer was hired.
“I asked for a meeting with him because I was contemplating whether I was wanted here,” Simpson said. “They were bringing Austin in. I knew Jalen was the starter. I just didn’t know my place.”
Behind the scenes, the wheels were already in motion to find Simpson a new team if he wasn’t wanted in Tuscaloosa. His mother, Julie, happened to be in town helping him move when Saban announced he was stepping down. She stayed for about a week to help her son figure out his future.
Following Simpson’s awkward introduction to DeBoer, his family started exploring options. Simpson’s parents told him not to attend the first two days of classes in case he wanted to transfer. It was decided that if Simpson had to leave Alabama, he would transfer to SEC rival Georgia. His mother was already searching for a place for him to live in Athens.
Jason Simpson reached out to Alabama co-offensive coordinators Nick Sheridan and Ryan Grubb (who would leave the following month to be the offensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks) and had good conversations with them. But there were no assurances that Ty would play the next season, as the returning Milroe had led the Crimson Tide to a 12-2 record and a College Football Playoff appearance.
“The timing was so fast,” Jason Simpson said. “As his dad, I couldn’t tell him what was the right thing to do.”
In the end, Ty’s concerns were put to rest after his meeting with DeBoer, who had just guided Washington to an undefeated regular season. The Huskies, led by quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and a high-flying offense, lost to Michigan 34-13 in the CFP National Championship.
Plus, if Simpson had transferred to Georgia, he probably would have sat behind returning starter Carson Beck. If he was going to be a backup again, Ty figured he might as well do it at a familiar place with teammates he loved.
“He was so prayerful about going to Alabama and knew that was where the Lord was leading him,” Julie Simpson said. “He was like, ‘I know this is where he wanted me to be, so I’m not leaving. I’m going to stick it out and see what this will do.'”
JULIE SIMPSON KNEW from an early age that her son was more driven than most kids. When Ty was 4, she signed him up for soccer to help burn off his energy. In the first few practices, he peppered his coach about the game’s rules and what he was supposed to do.
When Ty started collecting sports cards, it became an obsession. She drove him all over town looking for packs.
Simpson’s parents made him wait a year after he was eligible to sign up for tackle football, but he was all-in once he started playing. Since Jason was busy coaching UT Martin’s team, Julie videotaped Ty’s practices and games. She would drop the camera off at Jason’s office and a staff member would download the tape.
Jason and Ty reviewed the practices and games together, with his dad offering suggestions on how to improve his mechanics, pointing out receivers he missed and teaching him how to adjust his offensive linemen.
Ty was in fourth grade.
“He would go back to his practices and he would literally tell his teammates and his friends and they’d talk about it in school,” Julie said. “Thankfully, he had some sweet coaches. They’d ask Ty about what his dad said, and he would tell them. That’s kind of where he started really becoming obsessed with football even more than he already was.”
After UT Martin’s games, Julie analyzed the stat sheet during her husband’s news conferences. When Ty was old enough to understand stats, she made sure he had a box score, too. At Alabama, Ty still carries one to postgame interviews and critiques what the offense did and didn’t do well.
“I laugh because as many Coach Saban-isms as he has — and you can get a lot in 2½ years — if you listen to his dad in any of his press conferences, Ty sounds just like him,” Julie said.
Growing up in Tennessee, Ty loved to hunt ducks. He started making his own duck calls — and that became an obsession, too, as he worked to get them just right. Julie had to wear headphones in their house because he blew the calls so often.
One day in high school, Ty called his mother and told her that another driver had rear-ended his truck. He was OK and said the wreck wasn’t bad. When Julie arrived at the scene, she realized it was much worse than Ty described. The other car was totaled, and his truck was badly damaged. Other drivers told her the collision sounded like a train wreck.
“I was blowing my duck calls,” Ty told her. “I didn’t hear it.”
In his first three seasons at Alabama, Ty’s drive for perfection ended up holding him back. As a coach’s son, he was more familiar with X’s and O’s than most players. He had been drawing defenses and route trees on a whiteboard with UT Martin’s coaches since he was about 10.
Through high school, Ty was tutored by young assistants who ended up becoming some of the brightest offensive minds in the game: Georgia Tech offensive line coach Geep Wade, Panthers quarterbacks coach Will Harriger, Nebraska offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield and Bengals pass game coordinator Justin Rascati, among others.
Ty had such an intricate knowledge of the game by the time he reached college that Jason Simpson urged his son to rely on his instincts.
“He is a perfectionist when it comes to throwing and he’s very infatuated with the footwork and the finish and how the ball is supposed to spin correctly and stuff,” Jason said. “Now I think he’s kind of learned to just complete the pass, man, and move on. We’ll fix that in the offseason.”
Ty’s frustration over his lack of playing time early on at Alabama boiled over when he made the incorrect read on a goal-line play during a spring scrimmage in 2023. Then-offensive coordinator Tommy Rees jumped on him, and Jason Simpson sensed his son was still struggling during the drive home. The incident left Ty in tears and questioning whether he would ever get a chance to play at Alabama.
“Man, where are you with your faith?” Jason Simpson asked his son. “Because you shouldn’t be having that kind of anxiety. You’ve got to be able to let it go. You can’t just sit there and replay every play all the time in your head when you make a mistake.”
Saban described the start of Ty’s college career as a “cycle of negative spiraling.”
“He was just focusing on all the wrong stuff,” Saban said. “He’s a great kid — you’re not going to find a better kid. But sometimes the great kids are wired and driven to perfection, which can be a curse or a blessing depending on how you apply it to yourself.”
Jason knew that every time Ty came home, he was peppered with questions about whether he was ever going to play or be Alabama’s starter.
“That gets on anybody,” Jason said. “I just think over a period of time, he learned how to handle that better. His faith played a big part in lifting that off of him, realizing that he has a lot of blessings and he’s not only identified if he’s the starting quarterback at Alabama.”
LAST SEASON, AS Alabama struggled throughout a 9-4 season, Ty again played sparingly, attempting 25 passes in six games.
In practices, though, Ty proved to DeBoer and his assistants that he was ready to take the reins. Once Milroe declared for the NFL draft, Ty was left to battle Mack and highly regarded freshman Keelon Russell for the starting job this offseason.
Importantly, Ty was no longer battling himself.
“One day, it just kind of clicked,” he said. “I figured out I need to worry about myself and kind of just play. I understood what [Saban] meant about being outcome-oriented. I quit worrying about what will so-and-so think about me or what will Coach Saban say about me.”
Finally, in Alabama’s opener at Florida State on Aug. 30, Simpson took the field as the starter. His debut was a disaster, as he completed 23 of 43 passes for 254 yards with two touchdowns in the Tide’s stunning 31-17 loss. He was sacked three times, as the Tide had no answers against a team that finished 2-10 in 2024.
While DeBoer might have been public enemy No. 1 on Alabama sports radio and fan message boards, Simpson was a close runner-up. His father even received an email from a disgruntled fan who called his son the “worst quarterback in Alabama history.”
“It was pretty dark, I’m going to be honest with you,” Ty said. “Just because of all the hard work, all the waiting, and the buildup. I’d been waiting so long for this. I finally got my chance in a crazy environment with a good team. It was all that I asked for, right? And it all just crumbled in my hands.”
Julie and Jason sensed that Ty was struggling, so she drove to Tuscaloosa and spent the week with him. She brought along his goldendoodle, Rip, who is named after the ranch hand in the TV show, “Yellowstone.” She cooked his favorite foods, such as lasagna and chocolate chip cookies, and gave him “unconditional love.”
Jason gave him an honest assessment. When Ty asked his dad how he played against the Seminoles, his dad told him, “Well, you know, you didn’t play great. With the way y’all’s offense is built, whoever plays quarterback in that system has to play at a high level.”
DeBoer and Grubb, who returned to Bama this season, told Ty the same thing: He had to play better for the Tide’s offense to work. DeBoer opened the quarterback competition the next week in practice, giving Mack some snaps with the No. 1 offense.
Instead of wallowing in his mistakes as he might have in the past, Simpson practiced with a chip on his shoulder and went to work.
“It probably blindsided him for a second, but he responded in a great way all week long and produced exceptionally well on that Saturday,” DeBoer said. “It was what we needed him to do. I’m really proud of him because it can go one of two ways: Guys can kind of be like, ‘Whoa, they just don’t believe in me.’ You can feel sorry for yourself, or you can bow up and go compete and go get better.”
In Alabama’s 73-0 rout of Louisiana-Monroe on Sept. 6, Simpson completed each of his 17 pass attempts for 226 yards and three touchdowns.
Three weeks later, he threw for 276 yards with three touchdowns (one running) in a 24-21 win at then-No. 5 Georgia, ending the Bulldogs’ 33-game home winning streak.
“He had the ability and the talent,” Saban said. “He got all tangled up in himself psychologically to where he couldn’t function very well. He’s learned how to not do that. I think he learned and listened, and he wanted to be good. He’s really good at self-assessing, but now he self-assesses in a positive way, not in a way that frustrates him.”
When Simpson looks at a stat sheet now, he’s still critical. If the Crimson Tide held the ball for 38 minutes and scored 27 points, he’ll note they probably left a couple of touchdowns on the field. If he was sacked four times, he recognizes he probably should have gotten the ball out sooner.
But he’ll also pat himself on the back for completing a pass to tailback Jam Miller on a fourth-down rollout, or for checking down on a pass to Germie Bernard when a defender was in his face.
Through nine games, Simpson has completed 66.9% of his attempts for 2,461 yards with 21 touchdowns and one interception.
“You knew he was capable,” DeBoer said. “Everyone’s confident in him. As he continues to step up and be vocal, it’s genuine. Because he works hard, the team really responds and takes it in a positive way when he’s critical of himself and critical of us as an offense or as a team.”
There’s been a pair of goals written on the Simpsons’ family calendar this fall. Ty’s younger brother, Graham, followed him as the starting quarterback at Westview High. Last season, he threw for 4,135 yards with 57 touchdowns and one interception. He had a state-record 620 yards with eight touchdowns in one game.
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss, Miami and Vanderbilt are among the programs that have already offered Graham, who is in the Class of 2028, a scholarship.
This season, the Chargers are 10-0 and among the favorites to win the Class 3A state title. The state championship game will be played at Finley Stadium in Chattanooga, the day before the SEC championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
The Simpsons would like nothing more than to play a doubleheader on the first weekend of December.
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?
We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
All times Eastern
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Complete bowl season schedule
Matchups in bold have already been announced
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M
Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Louisiana vs. Delaware
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
California vs. Hawai’i
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.
It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.
With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.
Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?
Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.
Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.
Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.
Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.
Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.
Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.
Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.
Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).
Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.
Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.
Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.
Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.
Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.
Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.
Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.
Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.
Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.
Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.
Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.
Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.
Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.
Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.
Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.
Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.
Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.
Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
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