Why not Virginia? How Tony Elliott weathered tragedy and built a winner
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Andrea Adelson
CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. — When Tony Elliott walked into his first team meeting at Virginia in late 2021, he promised to develop the model program, one built on excellence in the classroom and on the field. He did it while looking at a representation of all he and his team would have to overcome: His players were sitting on white plastic folding chairs inside the indoor practice facility, because its outdated football building did not have a meeting room big enough to fit everyone.
Elliott came from Clemson, where the football facility, which opened in 2017, featured everything from a king-sized weight room to an in-house barber shop to state-of-the-art training tables and recovery areas. But when he arrived at Virginia, the facility he inherited had no modern amenities. Every meeting room was too small. There was no nutrition space — meals were handed out of a trailer after practice. No players lounge, either, nor space for support staff. It looked and felt every bit like something from 1991, which is, in fact, the year it was built.
That, however, did not stop Elliott from selling his vision. Forget about the folding chairs. Forget about having no place to eat. Forget about what you thought about Virginia football. This would be a new era. He wholeheartedly believed. So did the players who opted to stay and play for him.
Players like Lavel Davis Jr. and D’Sean Perry. Players like Devin Chandler, who transferred in from Wisconsin.
Today, everything Elliott spelled out in those early days is on full display. No. 19 Virginia (8-2) is off to its best start since 1990. Despite losing to Wake Forest last week after quarterback Chandler Morris was knocked out of the game, the Cavaliers are still in the mix in the ACC championship race. They face a must-win game Saturday against Duke (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) and are hopeful Morris will be able to play.
A new $80 million, 93,000-square foot football operations center opened last year, with spacious team meeting rooms and a large dining room featuring a chef who worked at a Michelin-rated restaurant in London. The 14,000-square foot weight room is nearly as large as the old 15,000-square foot facility.
Displayed prominently as you enter the building are the Nos. 1, 15 and 41 jerseys that belonged to Davis, Chandler and Perry, who were shot and killed on a charter bus after returning home from a class field trip to Washington, D.C., three years ago.
When Elliott walks past those jerseys, he thinks about what could have been. Some days he thinks about their funerals. He thinks about their families. He thinks about the lives they should be living.
Elliott thinks about Chandler, who would have been in his sixth season this year, living out everything that was promised on his recruiting visit, celebrating a magical season with his fellow seniors.
He thinks about where Davis and Perry would be in pursuing their post-collegiate dreams, perhaps standing on the sideline in Scott Stadium rooting on their former teammates, maybe storming the field when they beat Florida State in September.
What would they think of their team?
Would they be proud?
In a recent sit-down interview with ESPN, Elliott acknowledged for the first time that he seriously considered retiring after their deaths, unwilling to accept burying three young men, unsure how to lift his team when he had no idea how to lift himself.
“There were days that I wanted to be like, ‘I can’t do it anymore.’ I don’t have to do it,” he says now.
Elliott knew he would be navigating a path no other coach had ever charted: Keeping his promise to build that model program amid unprecedented tragedy. He had unwavering support from the school administration. But more than that, he had its promise to finally invest in Virginia football.
Three years after losing Chandler, Davis and Perry, Elliott is well on his way to delivering on the promises he made.
“It’s a beautiful thing to watch, and it is inspirational,” Virginia athletic director Carla Williams said. “I’m inspired to see how they have shown up every day since the tragedy. It’s very rewarding to see the success, and it just adds to the determination to see it through.”
AT THE TEAM’S first meeting in January, Elliott had all the new players go around the room, introduce themselves and explain why they chose Virginia. When it was Morris’ turn, he got up and bluntly said, “I came here to win a conference championship.”
“That’s the type of leader you want, and that’s when the majority of the room realized if we have a leader who’s that vocal, it’s time to do our part,” said senior kicker Will Bettridge, who has been with the program since 2022.
A few weeks later, Morris reiterated that sentiment in his first interview with reporters at Virginia. “I didn’t come all the way to Virginia as a Texas boy to win five, six games,” Morris said. “I want to win the conference championship.”
Reflecting on those comments, Morris told ESPN: “Talking to everyone affiliated with the program, you saw buy-in, a hungry program, everyone wanting to get this thing turned around. I knew there was a lot of support there, and we’d be able to go out and get the playmakers and people that we needed.”
Elliott and his players had no problem with Morris being so bold in the media. They all agreed with him.
Williams and Elliott had been working for years to incentivize investment in football. Bronco Mendenhall, who was the head coach at Virginia from 2016 to 2021, said during his time there that Virginia had the worst facilities in the ACC. He was not wrong. The small building was a hindrance on the recruiting trail. Getting a new facility funded was paramount. Once it was built, Williams and Elliott moved on to objective No. 2: financial investment in the program itself, going all-in on revenue sharing, NIL and enhancing the support staff.
Revenue sharing opened up a new world for Virginia. With athletic departments able to pay student athletes up to $20.5 million, Williams and Elliott set out to convince donors how important it was for Virginia to play the game its blue-blood football counterparts would be playing. The results soon followed.
Virginia made its strongest portal push under Elliott in the December 2024 window, armed with a large financial investment that it did not have previously, thanks in large part to a multimillion-dollar transformative gift from an anonymous donor. The school called the donation “the largest one-time cash contribution and the largest non-capital gift to Virginia football in program history.”
That allowed the Cavaliers to sign Morris and 16 other players, bolstering talent and depth at quarterback, receiver, defensive back and the offensive and defensive lines. Williams said Virginia was strategic in its build toward this moment: First the football operations center, then support for building the roster and support staff.
“Fortunately, we had several key donors who believe in the same things we believe in,” Williams said. “They believe in the way that we try to do things. They believe in long-term, sustainable success … the resources are massive. The folks who have been central to supporting the program did that before they saw the results, and that’s important.”
Though Elliott had posted three losing records in three seasons at Virginia, everybody inside the building knew that the foundation of the program was being reinforced. The future could really be different. Across the country, programs such as Indiana and Vanderbilt were holding their own against the blue bloods.
Why not Virginia?
“How did the football schools become football schools?” Elliott asks. “They made a decision, and then people bought in, and they created a culture. That’s really what it takes. Virginia has everything that it needs.”
TONY ELLIOTT’S MOTHER died in a car accident when he was just 9. He was riding in a van with her, his sister, stepbrother and stepfather when it hit another car and flipped over. Tony, his sister, stepbrother and stepfather survived. He found his pregnant mother motionless next to the van in a pool of blood. Elliott compartmentalized what happened. He was still just a kid. He didn’t fully comprehend that he would never see his mom again.
He poured everything he had into football, a place where he could forget about not having his mom, and eventually became a wide receiver at Clemson. After graduating, he spent two years as an engineer at Michelin North America. But he missed being around the game, and he started work as a volunteer coach at a local high school. He believed that the best way he could help others was through football.
Elliott eventually became one of the best assistants in the nation as the co-offensive coordinator and playcaller at Clemson, helping the Tigers win national titles in 2016 and 2018.
As the Tigers kept winning, Elliott kept getting calls about open head coaching jobs. For years, he turned them down. He wanted to wait for the school that felt right: a school with a strong academic profile that would also give him the ability to build a program the way he wanted and a chance to settle down and raise his family. And that’s what Virginia offered.
Then, 11 months into the job, Davis, Chandler and Perry were killed. Running back Mike Hollins was shot trying to help his teammates and was hospitalized. This time, Elliott had no choice but to confront the tragedy. It took decades for him to fully grasp losing his mother, which he described as “a gift and a curse,” in an interview with ESPN in 2015.
“I was hearing a lot of, ‘Everything you went through in your past, dealing with your mom and the adversity of your childhood, this is why you’re here,” Elliott said. “I didn’t want to hear that in the moment. That was 30 years ago. I’ve already done what I needed to do with that. I’m on the other side.
“I would get upset at times when people would say that, because it’s not what I wanted to hear. I want to be like everybody else. I wanted to hear the easy thing, like, ‘Hey, it’s not your fight. You don’t have to do this. Go start over. Go do something different.'”
He seriously thought about walking away. It was not the first time the thought crossed his mind. In 2018, former Clemson running back CJ Fuller died at age 22 from complications related to a blood clot. Then, after former Clemson running back Tyshon Dye drowned the following year at the age of 25, Elliott considered leaving the profession. Losing Davis, Perry and Chandler in the middle of their college careers, with so much life left to live, sent him spiraling. Too many young men lost too young.
“I just kept thinking, ‘I can’t invest in these young men and visualize what their lives could be like when they’re 30 years old, and then, boom, they’re gone. It’s too hard,” Elliott said. “Even in those moments when you’ve got to speak at those funerals, you don’t know what to say, and now you’re doing it again.
“It was not necessarily running from the situation as much as, ‘I just don’t know if I can do this anymore.'”
Elliott and Williams talked at length in the weeks and months that followed.
“He’s not the only one that contemplated that, and when you care deeply about young people, and something like that happens, it’s normal and human to fight the urge to walk away,” Williams said. “That’s where for me, and I’m sure for Tony, too, faith kicks in because there is a bigger picture. There is a purpose.”
Virginia canceled its final two regular-season games in 2022. Players began to hit the transfer portal. But others opted to stay, including Bettridge, offensive linemen Noah Josey, Jack Witmer and McKale Boley and defensive tackle Jahmeer Carter — all starters today. In all, 24 players on the 2022 team remain a part of the program.
“A lot of guys maybe thought that we were broken, and thought that it was going to affect us, but it actually brought us together, and it made us even stronger,” Bettridge said. “I want to be known as someone who carried that legacy, and not someone who jumped ship when things got hard. Because hard times don’t last, but strong people do.”
The months passed, and Elliott tried to build a roster, while figuring out his own path forward. Soon, it would be time to return to practice, to establish a new normal. That first day back on the field was hard. But he got the confirmation he needed as he watched his players return to football for the first time in four months when spring practice started the following March.
“If God asked us on the front end: This is what you’re walking into. Do you still want to go through that door? Nobody would sign up for that,” Elliott says. “So, God has to put you in that situation.
“I did choose to come here. When we pray for things, we’ve got to take everything that comes with it, and that’s when I got it. When we got back on the grass, that’s really when it hit me like, ‘All right, this is right where you’re supposed to be.’ Now, get out of your feelings and go focus on what you need to do for everybody else.”
The self-reflection also changed Elliott as a person and as a coach. He says he is more empathetic, a better husband and a better father. After the tragedy, Elliott made sure to open up with his players more. There was no shame in talking about feelings.
“My method of dealing with the things that I dealt with when I was younger, it’s probably not the most healthy and the most productive, but it was what you did,” Elliott said. “You didn’t talk about it much, you just sucked it up and you went through it. But times are different. I’m trying to find that balance of old-school/new-school just to be able to reach and help.”
Nor was there shame in admitting the way he approached his job in Year 1 was simply not going to work.
“When I first came in, young, overzealous, not understanding the job, just trying to do everything so fast, and not really recognizing where everybody else was at, just trying to tell everybody to come meet me where I am,” Elliott said. “I now meet them where they are, and say, ‘Let’s elevate together.'”
ELLIOTT HAD A quote from Hall of Fame coach Bill Walsh placed on the wall in the weight room of the new football facility:
Champions behave like champions before they’re champions; they have a winning standard of performance before they are winners.
At Clemson, Elliott saw a program transform from an underachiever to a perennial national title contender. But he and Williams both knew the fix at Virginia would not be quick; the Cavaliers hadn’t won a conference title since 1995.
Elliott refused to run players off. Anybody on scholarship who has wanted to stay with the program has always been allowed to stay.
There were glimmers of hope in the first couple of years: a ranked win over North Carolina in 2023; another over Pitt in 2024. One-score losses often bled into more losses. Last season felt like Virginia was on the verge of a breakthrough after a 4-1 start, but the Cavaliers finished with losses in six of their final seven games to finish 5-7. Outsiders may have thought that was enough to put Elliott on the hot seat. But Williams never considered making a change. She knew Elliott was trying to do something more difficult than just winning football games.
“When you see people who care deeply showing up every day, when everything around them is pushing them to not show up, for me — that requires patience,” she said. “I understand how difficult it is to focus on a game when you’re traumatized by tragedy.”
All the while, Elliott was helping build a foundation for what was to come. So when offseason workouts began in January, the seniors who had been through the ups and the downs, and the loss of their teammates, took ownership. The transfer players came in and fit in so well that it was hard to tell who had been at Virginia for a few months, and who had been there for a few years.
“Everyone we brought in from the transfer portal, they had the same goal coming here — to win a championship,” said Carter, a sixth-year senior. “I think that showcases the culture change of the program.
“Because maybe a few years ago, you probably wouldn’t have heard that coming from somebody from UVA. Now here we are. That can actually be accomplished.”
The turning point came on a Friday night at home against Florida State. Walking into the stadium, Elliott felt at home, playing in a big national spotlight game, the stakes high. It was just like things were seven years prior at Clemson.
Virginia pulled out a 46-38 double-overtime victory, the fans storming the field almost instantly after the final play ended. Virginia had lost so many close games since he arrived, but Elliott never lost faith that night that his team would win.
Bettridge sat on a bench with his parents and girlfriend and allowed himself a moment to take in the scene.
“It was emotional just to realize what we’ve been through in four years here, and just to see what’s capable, and to know that there’s more,” Bettridge said.
The following week, Virginia played another overtime game, this time beating Louisville thanks to two defensive scores. Elliott texted Perry’s mom, Happy, after the game. “We had a little special help,” he said.
Maybe so. But Virginia is also helping itself this season, making plays when they matter most to pull out three overtime wins, becoming one of only eight teams in college football history with three overtime victories in the same season.
“There’s been teams in the past here that I’ve been a part of that found ways to lose,” Josey said. “This team is different. This team finds ways to win. This team finds ways to grind it out, tooth and nail, whatever it has to be. When we’re in those moments where in past years we might have faltered, we’re not this year. That’s the big difference.”
Now that Virginia has made the investment, there is no turning back. Over the last two months, the school has received one $1 million donation and another anonymous multimillion-dollar commitment.
Says Williams: “You’ve improved the personnel, you’ve improved the operating budget, you’ve improved the facilities. You’ve committed to rev share and NIL. If you stop, then you’ve wasted years of building.”
There is no stopping as far as Elliott is concerned. With each day and each win, there are always reminders about how far they have come, and how much they have lost. Elliott has made it a point to tell all incoming players about Davis, Chandler and Perry.
The three players are honored every year at a home game designated “UVA Strong Day.” This year, on that day, Virginia beat William & Mary 55-16. In his postgame news conference, Elliott noted the 55 points are the most Virginia has scored in a game since a 55-15 rout of Abilene Christian in November 2020. Davis and Perry each scored a touchdown in that game.
Josey thinks about them every time he runs out of the tunnel. He drops to a knee and prays for them and their families. When Bettridge lines up to kick toward the closed side of Scott Stadium, he sees a more permanent reminder: 1-15-41 on the video ribbon board. He uses that as his target point as he lines up to kick, a reminder he is playing for something bigger than himself.
“I’m hopeful that we are bringing joy and hope and a little bit of peace to their families,” Elliott said. “I believe that when we have success, they’re right there with us.”
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?
We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
All times Eastern
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Complete bowl season schedule
Matchups in bold have already been announced
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M
Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Louisiana vs. Delaware
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
California vs. Hawai’i
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.
It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.
With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.
Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?
Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.
Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.
Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.
Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.
Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.
Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.
Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.
Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).
Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.
Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.
Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.
Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.
Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.
Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.
Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.
Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.
Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.
Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.
Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.
Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.
Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.
Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.
Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.
Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.
Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.
Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
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