Looking for the next Cignetti? Start with these traits and coaches
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Adam Rittenberg
The wildest college football coaching cycle ever is about to enter a pivotal phase. After firings began at Power 4 programs in mid-September — and, at Stanford, way back in late March — the hirings are coming soon.
Programs will survey different candidate profiles, trying to identify the best available coach for their specific places. But there’s one hiring process, and one candidate profile, that merits closer examination from just about any program.
Everyone should be trying to find the next Coach Cig.
Indiana‘s hiring of Curt Cignetti from James Madison on Nov. 30, 2023, didn’t seem seismic or unusual at the time. Other hires in the cycle generated more buzz, within the Big Ten (Jonathan Smith at Michigan State) and beyond it (Mike Elko at Texas A&M). The January 2024 frenzy that included Kalen DeBoer leaving Washington to replace Nick Saban at Alabama and Michigan promoting Sherrone Moore to replace Jim Harbaugh blew up much more than Cignetti taking the IU job.
Cignetti was a respected coach but largely off the radar, having won at James Madison and two programs below the FBS. He hadn’t coached in the Power 4 since 2010. He was 62 years old. His hire received solid reviews but had a wait-and-see feel about it.
Two years later, everything has changed for Indiana football. The team won a record 11 games in 2024 and made its first College Football Playoff appearance. Indiana is currently ranked No. 2 in the CFP standings and bound for the Big Ten championship game and another playoff spot. Cignetti has already received two adjusted contracts and has risen to No. 3 in salary among coaches ($11.6 million). The losingest program in major college football is 21-2 under Cignetti.
What qualities did Indiana see in Cignetti that have allowed him to elevate the program to unthinkable heights? Perhaps more important, what elements about him were missed or overlooked, which likely delayed his return to the Power 4?
ESPN spoke with several people involved in the Cignetti hire to assess the ingredients — or Cig-redients — that have led to his success, what other schools should be seeking and also the candidates in the current cycle who check some of the same boxes.
“If you truly want to find that next guy, it’s not going to hit you in the face,” a source said. “It’s peeling the onion, it’s getting to that second or third layer.”
Jump to:
Who could be the next Cignetti?
1. Winner at multiple levels
Penn State‘s firing of James Franklin on Oct. 12 placed a different focus on the oft-debated topic of coaching success. What really matters when evaluating win-loss records? Franklin was fired for not beating enough top-10 opponents at PSU. When Nebraska‘s Matt Rhule emerged as a possible replacement, his struggles against highly ranked teams were immediately cited.
But are enough schools evaluating coaches who have won at multiple levels and at multiple programs? DeBoer rose from Eastern Michigan offensive coordinator in 2016 to Alabama head coach in 2024, but he also went 67-3 with three NAIA national titles at Sioux Falls.
Cignetti, meanwhile, was not just an emerging coach at a Group of 5 school, going 52-9 at James Madison, when Indiana hired him. He also had two winning seasons and FCS playoff appearances at Elon, which had had just one playoff appearance before he arrived. Cignetti also went 53-17 at Indiana-Pennsylvania, making three Division II playoff appearances.
He also had experienced success not only at lower-level programs. Cignetti was part of Nick Saban’s original staff at Alabama and helped the Crimson Tide to a national title in 2009.
“We wanted someone who had won and consistently won,” an Indiana source said. “All those experiences made him way, way more prepared than if he’d just been the offensive coordinator at some point in Alabama and gotten a head coaching job. We felt that looking at other programs, it does translate.”
First-time head coaches who jump from coordinator roles at top programs have had national-level success: Georgia‘s Kirby Smart, Ohio State‘s Ryan Day, Oregon‘s Dan Lanning, Notre Dame‘s Marcus Freeman and Arizona State‘s Kenny Dillingham are all examples. Others parlayed instant success in their first head coaching jobs into bigger opportunities, such as Eliah Drinkwitz moving to Missouri after a single 12-1 season at Appalachian State.
But Cignetti has shown that breadth of success matters, especially at programs on different levels.
“When they’ve done it at multiple places, then it allows you to have a greater sense of comfort of: It’s not just a resource thing,” an industry source said.
2. A hands-on approach toward personnel
Every college coach portrays himself as being directly involved in personnel. But the reality is with general managers, growing personnel departments and the payment of athletes through revenue sharing, some head coaches are more overseers and delegators in how their rosters are constructed.
Not Cignetti.
He served as Alabama’s recruiting coordinator during his time there with Saban, and he has continued to closely evaluate every player he’s considering as a recruit or a transfer. As a head coach in Division II and the FCS, Cignetti maintained a hands-on philosophy. Even after taking over programs with greater resources, he didn’t step away one bit.
Unlike almost every other program in the Power 4, Indiana does not have a general manager.
“I’m the GM and head coach,” Cignetti said in July at Big Ten media day. “I’m organized, I’m good with numbers. My name is on this. I spent a lot of years getting to this point, I’m the best one to do it.”
Some might label his stance as arrogant, but it caught Indiana’s attention in the hiring process.
“He has to ‘OK’ every player added to the roster,” an IU source said. “Not everybody does that. A lot of [head coaches] don’t. They may just let their position coach determine who they want to recruit. He’s going to look at every one of them.”
Cignetti’s hands-on approach with who plays for him might be increasingly harder to find, given how programs are changing. General managers have important roles, as do player personnel directors and others involved in evaluation and talent acquisition. But those seeking the next Cignetti should prioritize coaches who lean into the personnel process, not away from it.
“All these guys are adding more and more staff and a GM and delegating more,” said a source involved in Indiana’s hire of Cignetti. “This guy, he wants to touch it all. We’re getting away from that, but he does it extremely well.”
3. A clear vision for the program
When Cignetti came to Indiana, many got wrapped up in the blustery proclamations he made, from his basketball court intro to “I win. Google me.” But he also relayed a program plan that had been sharpened for many years.
Indiana fans who watched Cignetti’s introductory news conference, or have heard from him during the past few years, would spot the parallels with what he said at his Elon intro in early 2017. He talked about working smart, being innovative, finding an edge, playing up-tempo, having high standards, being accountable and avoiding complacency.
“It’s not cheesy, it’s not corny, it is legitimate,” said a source close to Cignetti. “Core principles that he has believed in his entire coaching career. No. 1, it’s not bulls—.”
Some of the tenets Cignetti cited are echoed by other coaches, in job interviews and when they’re introduced at new places. But how he relayed his plan stuck with those involved in his hiring at Indiana.
“He’s very matter-of-fact,” one person said. “He doesn’t waste a lot of time and energy, doesn’t try to impress people. He’s supremely confident without being a jerk or an egomaniac. He’s got a lot of humility, because he’s put in the time to know what he knows and be confident in it.”
At his Elon introduction, he mentioned having “no self-imposed limitations” for the team. At his Indiana introduction, he said, “Average is the enemy.”
“He knows he can win,” an Indiana source said. “That’s not really ego. That’s just him.”
4. The ability to bring along key assistants and players
Coaching moves in college football are rarely just about an individual. Offensive coordinators are now hired with the hope or guarantee that they’ll bring talented quarterbacks with them, as Ben Arbuckle did for Oklahoma (John Mateer) or Jason Beck did for Utah (Devon Dampier).
Head coaches are evaluated through the lens of who could join them and transition well to a bigger stage. Cignetti’s success at Indiana has a lot to do with him, but also the key assistants and players who joined him from James Madison and have thrived at IU.
He brought along primary coordinators Mike Shanahan (offense), Bryant Haines (defense) and Grant Cain (special teams). Haines, a finalist for the Broyles Award (nation’s top assistant) in his first season at Indiana, has been with Cignetti at all four of his head coaching stops. Cain is in his seventh season on Cignetti’s staff, while Shanahan is in his fourth. Cignetti also had strength and conditioning chief Derek Owings, who joined him at James Madison in 2020, come to Indiana.
“Having a consistent staff was really important,” an Indiana source said. “We determined that was a real indicator of success. When people have a lot of turnover, it led to a lot of inconsistencies.”
Indiana embraced Cignetti’s desire to bring others with him to Bloomington, but not all Power 4 programs are as willing to do so.
“There are others that think, ‘Hey I want you to be my head coach, but if we’re going to scoop down and pick you up from that level, you’re really going to need to hire a [higher-profile] offensive coordinator or defensive coordinator,'” a source involved in IU’s process said. “Sometimes it works. More often than not, it doesn’t.”
Cignetti also had several of JMU’s top players transfer to Indiana, where they immediately became All-Big Ten performers: linebacker Aiden Fisher, cornerback D’Angelo Ponds, wide receiver Elijah Sarratt, defensive end Mikail Kamara. Even though the players moved from the Sun Belt to the Big Ten, their familiarity with Cignetti, the other coaches and the schemes has made the transition smoother than anyone could have imagined.
“He struck gold in bringing that staff and hitting on the transfers he did the last two years,” a source said.
Who are the Cignetti-like candidates out there?
The search for the next Curt Cignetti must begin with this premise: There are no exact replicas.
“He’s one of one,” an Indiana source said, “but I think you could find coaches that are similar to him.”
There are certain elements to Cignetti’s profile that probably won’t be found in a candidate pool, like such as his decision to leave Saban for a Division II head- coaching job and a significant pay cut. But there are other credentials that match up, and could help certain candidates get longer looks.
Here’s a quick look at 10 current college head coaches who might fit the Cignetti model:
James Madison coach Bob Chesney
Age: 48
Bio blast: The man who replaced Cignetti at JMU has some parallels in his background, namely success as a non-FBS head coach. Chesney went 44-21 at Holy Cross, an FCS program, and also had very successful runs at Assumption University (Division II, Brian Kelly’s alma mater) and at Division III Salve Regina. He’s 128-51 overall and has never had a losing season, winning 10 or more games four times. Chesney had not coached in the FBS before JMU and has never worked at a Power 4 program, but he’s 17-5 with the Dukes and 8-1 this year. Several of his assistants have been with him at multiple stops, including offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy and special teams coordinator Drew Canan.
Houston coach Willie Fritz
Age: 65
Bio blast: Fritz is the only Power 4 coach appearing here and might end up finishing his excellent career at Houston. But his credentials still merit close examination for a team looking for a Cig type. Fritz has been a head coach since 1993, first at Blinn junior college at Texas, and at Central Missouri and Sam Houston before earning his first FBS gig at Georgia Southern. He won two junior college national titles at Blinn, twice reached the FCS national title game at Sam Houston and won league titles at all five of his previous coaching stops, including Tulane, where he went 23-4 in his final two seasons and went to the Cotton Bowl. Houston is the first Power 4 program where Fritz has worked, but the team is 8-2 in his second season there.
Age: 48
Bio blast: New Mexico’s success in Eck’s first season has showcased his colorful personality to a larger college football audience. Eck is a character, and has proven to be a talented head coach as he has New Mexico bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016. A former Wisconsin offensive lineman who played on the 1998 Big Ten and Rose Bowl championship team, Eck was a career offensive line coach until 2022, when he took over the program at Idaho. He coached the offensive line in the FBS at Ball State, but has mostly coached in the FCS, including at national power South Dakota State. Eck led Idaho to three straight playoff appearances and consecutive No. 8 finishes before coming to New Mexico.
Temple coach K.C. Keeler
Age: 66
Bio blast: Like Fritz, Keeler has been a college head coach since 1993 and had incredible success at multiple levels of the sport. The Pennsylvania native started at Division III Rowan, reaching the playoffs seven times in nine years and making five championship game appearances. He then went to Delaware, his alma mater, and won the FCS (then Division I-AA) national title in 2003, and returned to the championship game in both 2007 and 2010. Keeler then left his home area for Texas and Sam Houston State, where in 2021 he became the first coach to win FCS national titles at two schools. He had six seasons of 10 or more wins at Sam Houston State and guided the team’s transition to the FBS. Keeler is 5-5 in his first season at Temple, which has not won more than three games since 2019.
Age: 45
Bio blast: Mack’s career journey might be closest to Cignetti’s, given the varying levels where he has coached. A wide receiver at Jackson State and Arkansas State, Mack coached wideouts at multiple stops, including Memphis, before becoming a head coach at North Carolina Central, an HBCU, where he went 31-15 with four winning seasons, three MEAC titles and a Celebration Bowl appearance. Mack then gained offensive coordinator experience at Rice before coming to Tennessee, where he coached running backs from 2021 to 2023. After a year in the NFL with the Jacksonville Jaguars, he landed his first FBS job with Kennesaw State, which is 7-2 and 5-0 in Conference USA. Mack’s varied experience and ties to the South and Southeast make him an intriguing candidate for future cycles.
Army coach Jeff Monken
Age: 58
Bio blast: Monken’s long-term success at Army is staggering. Army won more than five games just once between 1997 and 2016, when Monken led the team to eight victories and then won 21 games over the next two seasons. He has six seasons of eight or more wins at Army, including last season, when the Black Knights went 12-2, won the American in their first season as a league member and finished No. 22 in the final CFP standings. Monken also had success in his first head- coaching stop, guiding Georgia Southern to two league titles and three straight FCS semifinals appearances. He has Power 4 experience at Georgia Tech as an assistant in 2008 and 2009. Monken’s association with the triple -option offense has likely prevented him from landing a Power 4 gig, but few coaches are more deserving after what he’ has done at Army.
UTSA coach Jeff Traylor
Age: 57
Bio blast: He spent the first 25 years of his coaching career at Texas high schools, most notably in his hometown of Gilmer, where he led the team to three state titles and five championship game appearances. Traylor went 175-26 at Gilmer before becoming an FBS assistant at Texas, SMU and Arkansas. Despite mixed results with those teams, he landed his first college head- coaching gig at UTSA and dramatically elevated the program, going 23-5 from 2021 to 2022 with two conference titles. The program entered the American and has winning seasons in each of its first two years. Despite an up-and-down 2025, Traylor is 50-25 at UTSA. Few college coaches are better connected within the state of Texas.
Age: 46
Bio blast: The lpast three North Dakota State coaches either left for FBS head- coaching jobs or, in Matt Entz’s case, an USC assistant role that he parlayed into the lead gig at Fresno State. Polasek certainly could be the next to make the jump after winning the FCS national title in his first year as Bison head coach, and starting this season at 10-0. Unlike predecessors Entz and Chris Klieman, Polasek has meaningful Power 4 experience to draw from after coaching Iowa’s offensive line from 2017 to 2020. The Wisconsin native has spent his career in the Midwest or the Great Plains region and projects as a candidate for jobs in the nation’s midsection.
Age: 40
Bio blast: Morris is much younger than anyone else on the list, and I debated whether to include him as his time as an assistant occurred at two power -conference programs (Texas Tech and Washingtton State at the time). But his move from Texas Tech offensive coordinator to lead the program at FCS Incarnate Word stood out. He led the program to two conference titles and playoff appearances, winning 10 games in his final season. Morris then moved to North Texas, which is 8-1 in his third season and possibly bound for the American Conference championship game. He has developed a reputation for identifying and developing under-the-radar quarterbacks like such as Cam Ward, John Mateer and current North Texas starter Drew Mestemaker.
Age: 48
Bio blast: Consistency at the Group of 5 level isn’t easy, especially in the transfer portal era, but Helton has achieved it at Western Kentucky. He has won eight or more games in five of his first six seasons with the Hilltoppers, and is 7-2 this fall. Although WKU hasn’t won a league title, it twice reached the Conference USA championship game and has consistently had one of the nation’s top passing offenses. Helton has spent most of his coaching career at the Group of 5 level, mostly at schools in the American Conference and WKU, but he also gained Power 4 experience at both USC and Tennessee.
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?
We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
All times Eastern
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Complete bowl season schedule
Matchups in bold have already been announced
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M
Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Louisiana vs. Delaware
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
California vs. Hawai’i
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.
It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.
With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.
Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?
Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.
Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.
Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.
Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.
Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.
Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.
Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.
Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).
Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.
Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.
Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.
Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.
Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.
Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.
Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.
Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.
Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.
Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.
Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.
Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.
Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.
Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.
Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.
Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.
Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.
Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
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