I’m sick of the “American Thanksgiving playoff position” conversation that happens every single year in the hockey world. I say this with complete respect to longtime NHL executive Ken Holland, who is credited with introducing the idea.
You know exactly what I’m talking about: If an NHL team is in a playoff position by American Thanksgiving (the fourth Thursday in November, this year on the 27th), they will probably make the playoffs. From 2005-06 through last season, 77.1% of NHL teams in a playoff spot on American Thanksgiving made the postseason. That ratio was as spot-on as mathematically possible last season, with six of eight teams in each conference that were in playoff position on Nov. 28 remaining there at season’s end.
Here’s why this season could be different: in the past 10 seasons (taking out the season that COVID-19 affected the Thanksgiving mark), the average gap between top and bottom of the East was 20.4 points. In the West, 20.5; that makes the NHL average a 20.45-point gap.
If the current eight-point gap in the East as of Monday holds through the next few days, it will be the smallest gap in either conference at American Thanksgiving in the past decade. Before this season, the smallest in the past decade was 14 points, which was last season in the East. Even with that smaller gap, six of eight teams in playoff position on Turkey Day made it in the spring; the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins were replaced by the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens, the latter of whom were in last place in the conference on Thanksgiving.
So yes, history will tell us that the 77.1% success number will roughly hold. But given the tight standings in the East, we could be in store for a healthy amount of absolute pandemonium and more juggling around than at a circus — and let’s be real, that would be a lot more entertaining to hockey fans!
But I have another new idea; what if we hold off on the playoff talk until a slightly later date? We don’t need to crowd Thanksgiving. Let it have its day. Let’s not be like stores that sell Christmas decorations on Sept. 15.
Thanksgiving roughly lands around the Game Nos. 18-22 mark for teams. Why don’t we make the cutoff date the first Monday of December instead? That would be one to three more games per team.
So let’s have the “Stanley Cup playoff Mendoza line” discussion be its own day on the first Monday in December. From the content angle, Thanksgiving already gives us enough themes to work with: What are we thankful for in hockey, which NHL players would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, etc. We don’t need to stuff in the playoff talk.
Consider this my official petition to start the movement: I will see you all on Monday, Dec. 1 for our playoff team predictions and laments! For those who are back to work after a four-day Thanksgiving weekend, we’ll hit you with all of those sweet playoff positioning prognostications. Boom! (And again, sorry, Mr. Holland.)
But speaking of American Thanksgiving, it is a unique week on the NHL calendar. There are 15 games on Wednesday and another 15 on Friday — and none on Thursday, because we will all be too busy eating turkey and not talking about playoff teams, right?
So, as a slight swerve from the usual department, here’s a ranking of all 15 games on Friday’s all-day slate, which starts at noon ET and runs through a pair of games with an 8 p.m. ET puck drop. Enjoy the hockey holiday!
1 p.m. ET | TNT
The Bruins have eventual 50-goal scorer (according to teammate David Pastrnak) Morgan Geekie, who is one goal behind Nathan MacKinnon in the Rocket Richard race. Meanwhile, the Rangers continue their reverse home-road split; world beaters away from MSG, quite fallible on home ice. And coincidentally, the teams’ No. 1 netminders, Igor Shesterkin and Jeremy Swayman, have virtually identical .909 and .907 save percentages as the week begins.
Give me an Original Six matchup between two teams who definitely need the points. But there’s always something a little extra when it’s Boston vs. New York in any sport, no matter the standings.
Here’s the rest of my rankings for Friday’s schedule:
3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN+
4 p.m. ET | ESPN+
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7 p.m. ET | NHL Network
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12 p.m. ET | ESPN+
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5 p.m. ET | ESPN+
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8 p.m. ET | ESPN+
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What I loved this weekend
New York Islanders defenseman Matthew Schaefer is a joy to watch so young in his career. He’s already calling out spots like a veteran on the ice, skating really well with great positioning, battling for pucks and making smart passes. Seeing him play in person for the first time on Saturday was an absolute treat. He’s appointment viewing for me already.
I’m not ready to make big comparisons yet to what he’ll be when he hits his peak, but I will say that the way Schaefer strips players of the puck on the defensive end and makes it look so effortless reminds me of how Cale Makar is able to do that seemingly with ease, often against superstars such as Connor McDavid.
Hart Trophy candidates if the season ended today
Nathan MacKinnon might be on this list for the rest of the season the way he’s going. After 22 games, he has 37 points and 17 goals, leading the league in points and tied for the league lead in goals.
Speaking of the Art Ross race (for the NHL’s leading point scorer), Nos. 2, 3 and 4 are currently McDavid, Macklin Celebrini and Connor Bedard. Sign me up for the “kids” fighting the established superstars for the point-scoring lead all season.
In fact, since both Celebrini and Bedard have more goals than McDavid, I’m making them both Hart Trophy finalists for the week. I hope this changes again, because the constant shifting in the race has become a storyline I absolutely love this season.
Social media post of the week
Speaking of Matthew Schaefer, he showed incredible poise and strength for the kids he interacted with during Hockey Fights Cancer Day at UBS Arena. Schaefer’s mother Jennifer died from cancer, and the game was played on her birthday.
Today is a day that Matthew Schaefer holds close to his heart. 💜
A very touching post came from Sydney Esiason Martin, with whom Schafer is living this season. Responding to a photo of Schaefer hugging her kids, Martin replied “My girls are lucky to have him in their lives”:
On a lighter note, a shoutout to Grant Joseph and his daughter Skyla, whom I met at UBS Arena. Their videos, where daughter Skyla chirps dad Grant for being a Maple Leafs fan, crack me up. Grant bravely wore a Leafs John Tavares jersey to the game.
We filmed a collab — it didn’t go well for me:
Stick taps
As noted in the sections above, I was on site for the Islanders’ Hockey Fights Cancer game to see how the organization did such a terrific job showing the kids that were present an incredible time. It started right off the hop at the ceremonial puck drop; shoutout to Blues captain Brayden Schenn, who positioned the kids so that the pictures would look great, one they will no doubt cherish.
Three of the young warriors got to ring the bell for beating cancer, which drew an incredible, emotional reaction from the crowd.
Isles GM Mathieu Darche held a special news conference for the kids. In speaking with them, you could tell it became a core memory.
We see many examples of acts of kindness on social media during Hockey Fights Cancer month, but it’s a different perspective to see it in person as opposed to in videos on social media.
The Islanders, like many other teams, have incredible charitable initiatives year round. I was told that money raised from auctions regularly allows winners to sit in the owners box, often meeting with Isles co-owner Jon Ledecky, or sitting against the glass, interacting with players (and usually Sparky the Dragon), along with other unique experiences.
For teams that aren’t playing in their conference championship games, this is it — the final chance to make a lasting impression on the College Football Playoff selection committee.
For some contenders, like Ole Miss, their regular-season résumé is now complete, and what happens in the fifth ranking on Tuesday night should be a strong indicator of their final placement on Selection Day. Others, like Miami, are banking on hope and help — and most importantly, one more win. It all began with the Egg Bowl on Friday — a game that not only kept Ole Miss in the playoff, but also technically in the SEC race.
That’s right — this thing is far from over, so check back after each game to see how the results will impact the playoff as the day unfolds.
Texas 27, Texas A&M 17
Rivalry Week presented its first shakeup of the top four when No. 16 Texas beat No. 3 Texas A&M — but it might not be all that jarring in the fifth ranking. The Aggies will likely drop to the 4-6 range behind Georgia. The Bulldogs have better wins including a 35-10 drubbing of … Texas. Georgia also has a better loss (to No. 10 Alabama), and has now clinched a spot in the SEC title game. The question is just how far Texas A&M will fall now that it has joined No. 5 Texas Tech, No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Ole Miss in the one-loss club. The Aggies entered the weekend with a noticeable edge over Texas Tech in both strength of record (23 to 56) and strength of schedule (1 to 10). It’s possible the committee only drops the Aggies one spot, flipping them with Georgia, which means they’d still be in position to earn a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed. There would be a strong debate, though, about whether the Aggies, Texas Tech or Oregon, the latter which has impressed the committee lately by ranking in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, deserves the highest seeding. The Aggies’ problem now is that they’d have to finish in the top four as an at-large team because they just got knocked out of the SEC title game.
While Texas now has arguably the best win in the country, it probably won’t be enough to catapult it into the top-10 as a three-loss team. Even with some upsets above them, it’s unlikely Texas would get higher than No. 12.
Indiana 56, Purdue 3
Indiana clinched a spot in the Big Ten championship game with its win against rival Purdue, locking in a CFP bid and beefing up its chances at keeping a first-round bye on Selection Day. The Hoosiers, who have been the committee’s No. 2 team in each of the first four rankings, still have a chance of grabbing the No. 1 spot in Tuesday’s ranking if Ohio State loses to Michigan. If the Buckeyes lose and Oregon wins Indiana will face Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If Michigan wins and Oregon loses the Hoosiers will face Michigan for the conference title.
The question is whether IU can maintain a top-four seed and a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up. If Indiana lost the title game, the committee would consider where their opponent was ranked and how close the game was. The Hoosiers would also be compared with other top one-loss teams, but playing a ranked opponent in the conference championship game — win or lose — would boost IU’s record strength by the committee’s metric.
Georgia 16, Georgia Tech 9
Georgia should keep its place as the committee’s top one-loss team following its win against rival Georgia Tech. Georgia’s Oct. 18 win against Ole Miss, along with their win at Tennessee and drubbing of Texas, impressed the committee. The Bulldogs’ consistency on offense and defense has also played well with the committee. Georgia’s first-round bye would only be in question at this point if it finishes as a two-loss SEC runner-up.
Barring an unusual combination of ACC results, No. 23 Georgia Tech will be out of the playoff at 9-3. The only way the Yellow Jackets can extend their playoff hope is through the ACC championship game. They entered the weekend with a 1.5% chance of making the game, according to ESPN Analytics.
Ole Miss 38, Mississippi State 19
With its win against rival Mississippi State on Friday, Ole Miss likely locked up a playoff spot and remains in a strong position to host a first-round home game. If Alabama loses to Auburn on Saturday, Ole Miss will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game. Even if it doesn’t, though, the one-loss Rebels should still be a CFP lock.
As for the uncertainty still looming around coach Lane Kiffin, if Ole Miss turns to an interim head coach for the playoff, the selection committee could consider that. CFP protocol states the group will consider “other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.” Ole Miss won’t miss the playoff because Kiffin left for another job, but it could get dinged a spot or two if the committee thinks the team won’t be the same without him.
Utah 31, Kansas 21
No. 13 Utah punctuated its résumé with a win against 5-7 Kansas, but it’s still unlikely to reach the playoff without multiple upsets of teams above it — especially after just being leapfrogged by No. 12 Miami in the latest CFP ranking. Even with a win, to reach the Big 12 championship game, Utah still needs Texas Tech to lose and for both BYU and Arizona State to win. The Utes’ best hope to reach the CFP is still as an at-large team.
Getting that bid isn’t inconceivable if a combination of two-loss teams above them lose. If Oklahoma, Alabama and Miami lose, it would be difficult for any of them to stay in the top 12 as three-loss teams. Utah would need at least two of them to lose to move into the top 10, which is where it would need to be to actually be seeded in the field. The No. 11 and No. 12 teams this year will be excluded during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions.
AUSTIN, Texas — Arch Manning threw a touchdown pass and ran for the clinching score late in the fourth quarter, and No. 16 Texas rallied to upend No. 3 Texas A&M27-17 on Friday night, spoiling the Aggies’ undefeated season and knocking them out of the Southeastern Conference championship game.
Manning’s 29-yard touchdown pass to Ryan Wingo in the third quarter gave Texas (9-3, 6-2 SEC) a 13-10 lead in what had been a tight, defensive game. His 35-yard run up the middle on third down with 7:04 left to play put the Longhorns up 27-17.
Texas, which started the season No. 1 and, at one point, was unranked, defeated a top-10 opponent for the third time this season to keep alive any faint hopes of making the College Football Playoff for the third consecutive time.
“In the locker room, you could see it, that we had 30 minutes together to see if we can keep playing this season,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian told ESPN’s Molly McGrath in his postgame, on-field interview, referring to his halftime speech. “And they sure played like it in the second half.”
The Aggies (11-1, 7-1) are all but assured their first playoff berth, but the loss to their biggest rival will sting the program for a long time. Texas A&M has never played for an SEC title since joining the league in the 2012 season.
Meanwhile, despite three losses, the Longhorns feel they’ve made their case for a playoff berth, as well. Texas lost to Ohio State, Georgia and Florida.
“You tell me. That team is undefeated. No. 3 in the country, and a lot of the pundits out there think they are the No. 1 team in the country,” Sarkisian said when asked if his team’s win over the Aggies should push Texas into the CFP. “We just beat them by 10.”
The Aggies led 10-3 at the half.
“These guys fought. We were physical, we were tough,” Sarkisian said. “We created turnovers, we ran the ball, and we made the plays in the passing game when we had to. It was awesome.”
STARKVILLE, Miss. — Lane Kiffin said he’ll decide Saturday whether he will return as Ole Miss‘ coach in 2026 or take another job, presumably at LSU, which is trying to poach him from its SEC rival with a lucrative contract offer that will make him one of the highest-paid coaches in college football.
Kiffin, while speaking to reporters after the No. 7 Rebels’ 38-19 victory at Mississippi State in Friday’s Egg Bowl at Davis Wade Stadium, would only say that he’ll have to make a decision one way or the other, after Ole Miss athletics director Keith Carter and chancellor Glenn Boyce said they needed an answer by Saturday.
“I feel like I’ve got to,” Kiffin said.
When Kiffin was asked if he had made up his mind about where he’ll be coaching next season, he said, “Yeah, I haven’t. Maybe that surprises you. But, you know, I’ve got to do some praying and figure this thing out.”
Kiffin said he planned to attend his son’s high school playoff game in Tupelo, Mississippi, on Friday night. Knox Kiffin is Oxford High’s starting quarterback.
“Tonight, I’m going to go be a dad and watch a more important game to me,” Kiffin said.
Kiffin wasn’t sure what time he would make a decision Saturday.
“There’s a lot [that goes] into it,” Kiffin said. “It’s a hard decision. You guys have them all the time. You’ve got to make decisions about jobs you take and where you move, and we get paid a lot so I understand we’re under a lot of spotlight and scrutiny.”
Kiffin said he regretted not being able to speak to his father, Monte Kiffin, while trying to make one of the most important decisions of his career. The longtime NFL defensive coordinator died in July 2024. He was 84.
Kiffin, 50, has sought the advice of former Alabama coach Nick Saban and Las Vegas Raiders coach Pete Carroll, his former boss at USC, the past few weeks.
ESPN reported earlier Friday that Florida, which was also courting Kiffin, is now focused on other candidates in its search because the Gators believe he’s more interested in other opportunities.
Carter and Boyce met with Kiffin a week ago in Oxford, Mississippi, and the sides came to an understanding that Kiffin would make up his mind the day after the Egg Bowl.
If the Egg Bowl was Kiffin’s last game as Ole Miss’ coach, it was a fitting end to one of the most successful tenures in school history.
As speculation about Kiffin’s future continued to swirl over the past two weeks, the Rebels rolled past their rivals for their fifth win in the past six meetings in the heated series. The Rebels had 545 yards of offense, as quarterback Trinidad Chambliss passed for 359 yards with four touchdowns.
The Rebels (11-1, 7-1 SEC) all but secured a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff. They’ll have to wait another day to find out whether they’ll play in next week’s SEC championship game in Atlanta.
No. 3 Texas A&M would have to fall at No. 16 Texas on Friday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) and No. 10 Alabama would have to lose at Auburn in Saturday’s Iron Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET/ABC) for the Rebels to clinch a spot in the SEC championship game.
And, of course, Ole Miss fans will be waiting Saturday to find out which coaches will be on the sideline for the CFP, which might begin with a first-round game at home on Dec. 19 or 20.
If Kiffin decides to leave for LSU, former New York Giants coach Joe Judge would likely serve as the Rebels’ interim coach in the CFP, sources told ESPN.