Best run ever? How Shohei Ohtani’s five-year stretch compares to baseball’s greats
-
David Schoenfield
In the fifth year of his utter domination of Major League Baseball, Shohei Ohtani only padded an already astounding résumé.
He hit 55 home runs and led the National League in runs scored, slugging percentage, OPS and total bases; he returned to pitching and posted a 2.87 ERA in 47 innings with 62 strikeouts; he became the first player to hit three home runs and strike out 10 batters in one game (and it came in a playoff game); he went to bat nine times in a World Series game and got on base nine times (tying a World Series record with four extra-base hits along the way); and he was the starting pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series, which his Los Angeles Dodgers won to become the first repeat champion in 25 years.
Ohtani is the heavy favorite to win his fourth MVP award Thursday. (Only Barry Bonds has won more than three.) And with three unanimous selections, Ohtani is already the only player with more than one such selection — and there’s a good chance this will be his fourth.
The latest MVP honor will cap a remarkable past five seasons for Ohtani, four of which he has spent as both one of the best hitters in the game and one of the best pitchers. The postseason run was a reminder, as Jeff Passan wrote after Ohtani’s three-homer game in the NLCS, “that one of the greatest athletes in the world, and the most talented baseball player ever, is playing right now, doing unfathomable things, redefining the game in real time.”
It raises the question: How does Ohtani’s five-year stretch compare to the best five-year runs in MLB history? Is this the greatest ever? This is an impossible question to answer, but let’s explore it by picking one player to represent each decade and see how he compares to Ohtani. While we’ll focus on overall value, there are other pieces, like championships and achievements, that are part of the equation.
We’ll start with Ohtani and then go back to the 1900s and go decade by decade. The point here isn’t so much to declare the “winner” but to look at baseball’s best side by side, so consider the arguments we lay out and make your own proclamation.
Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, 2021-25: 45.2 WAR
Five-year average: .285 BA, 171 OPS+, 47 HR, 104 RBIs, 115 R, 27 SB, 6.0 WAR
Four-year pitching average: 9-4, 2.84 ERA, 119 IP, 87 H, 151 SO, 151 ERA+, 3.8 WAR
Led league: 3x WAR, 2x R, 2x HR, 3x OPS
Achievements: 3x MVP, 2x WS champ, 50/50 season
WAR percentage over No. 2 player in span: +8.4% (Aaron Judge)
The case for Ohtani: He does it all. He hits for power, including back-to-back 50-homer seasons. He steals bases, notching the first 50/50 season in MLB history in 2024. He hits for average in a low-average era, ranking second in the NL in 2024 and fourth in the American League in 2023.
Over the past five seasons, he’s second in the majors in home runs, first in runs, fourth in RBIs, second in OPS, first in total bases and seventh in stolen bases. Oh, and he has done a little pitching on the side, going 35-17 with a 2.84 ERA. Despite not pitching at all in 2024 and not throwing that many innings in 2025, he’s still 14th in pitching WAR since 2021. All told, his offense accounts for 30.2 WAR and his pitching for 15.2 WAR. Throw in two World Series titles and the three (soon-to-be four) MVP awards to go with the two-way performance and we’ve never seen anything like it.
The case against Ohtani: As we’ll see, Ohtani’s five-year WAR total — while obviously outstanding — is not at the top of this list. It’s not even in the top five. Value is value, no extra credit here just because he has been outstanding on both sides of the ball. And looming over his shoulder is this fact: Judge has had the higher WAR in three of the five seasons:
2022: 10.8 to 9.6
2024: 10.8 to 9.2
2025: 9.7 to 7.7
Can you have the greatest five-year stretch of all time when Judge is right there putting up his own historic seasons? Ohtani has been more valuable overall — and, of course, has won the titles that have eluded Judge — but it’s close.
OK, now let’s turn back the clock …
Honus Wagner, SS, 1905-1909: 49.2 WAR
Five-year average: .349 BA, 183 OPS+, 6 HR, 93 RBIs, 101 R, 52 SB, 9.8 WAR
Led league: 5x WAR, 4x BA, 4x 2B, 2x RBI, 2x SB, 4x OPS
Achievements: 1x WS champ
WAR percentage over No. 2 player in span: +40.6% (Nap Lajoie)
The case for Wagner over Ohtani: Wagner might be better known today for his ultra-rare baseball card that has sold for as high as $7.25 million than his exploits on the field, but he dominated the NL in the first decade of the 20th century, retroactively leading NL position players in WAR all five seasons. The second-best position player in the majors was way behind Wagner, and only pitcher Christy Mathewson came within even 10 WAR of Wagner’s value over this stretch. His 1908 season is one of the all-time best: He hit .354 with a .957 OPS when the league average was .239 with a .605 OPS.
The case for Ohtani over Wagner: Wagner was fast, powerful and a well-conditioned athlete (he was an early proponent of weightlifting, with this five-year run starting when he was 31 years old), but the dead ball era was more than 100 years ago and it’s difficult to know how his game might transition to different eras of baseball. We don’t want to go too deep into making timeline adjustments, but that has to be a consideration in Ohtani’s favor.
Ty Cobb, CF, 1909-1913: 47.7 WAR
Five-year average: .396 BA, 198 OPS+, 7 HR, 95 RBIs, 112 R, 67 SB, 9.5 WAR
Led league: 3x WAR, 5x BA, 2x RBIs, 2x SB, 4x OPS
Achievements: 1x Triple Crown, 1x MVP
WAR percentage over No. 2 player in span: +7.2% (Eddie Collins)
The case for Cobb over Ohtani: The man hit nearly .400 over this five-year period — including .419 in 1911 and .409 in 1912 — that featured mushy baseballs, pitchers throwing legal spitballs, and baggy wool uniforms soaked in dirt and sweat. As Joe Posnanski put it, “As a ballplayer, Cobb was his own species. … He was not just the dominant player [of his era]. He was the only one who mattered.” Cobb won a Triple Crown in 1909, and while home runs were scarce in the dead ball era, he still belted 79 extra-base hits in 1911, including 47 doubles and 24 triples. He mastered the science of small ball — at the plate and on the bases. In the first Hall of Fame election in 1936, it was Cobb — and not Babe Ruth or Wagner — who received the most votes.
The case for Ohtani over Cobb: As great as Cobb was, Collins wasn’t far behind in value in this stretch, and pitcher Walter Johnson was actually ahead. Joe Jackson put up similar offensive numbers in 1911 (.408) and 1912 (.395). Starting in 1912, Tris Speaker would lead the AL in WAR in three of the next five seasons, as he was close to Cobb as a hitter and better in the field. In other words, Cobb’s achievements weren’t quite singular, even if he did it in a singular, brilliant, aggressive fashion that was never forgotten.
Babe Ruth, RF/LF, 1920-24: 56.6 WAR
Five-year average: .370 BA, 229 OPS+, 47 HR, 131 RBIs, 145 R, .777 SLG, 11.3 WAR
Led league: 4x WAR, 1x BA, 4x HR, 3x RBIs, 5x OPS
Achievements: 1x MVP, 1x WS champ
WAR percentage over No. 2 player in span: +14.3% (Rogers Hornsby)
The case for Ruth over Ohtani: You knew the Babe was going to pop up here, and his best five-year stretch begins with his first season with the New York Yankees, when he increased his own single-season home run record from 29 to 54 (and then to 59 in 1921). His 56.6 WAR during this five-year span is the highest of anyone on the list and well above Ohtani’s totals, achieved even with a down year — for him — in 1922, when he played 110 games and was worth 6.4 WAR after getting suspended for an unauthorized offseason barnstorming tour. He returned in 1923 to produce the highest single-season WAR for a position player on Baseball-Reference at 14.1, a year he hit .393 with 41 home runs. Let’s see Ohtani post a 14-WAR season.
The case for Ohtani over Ruth: There’s no doubt Ruth changed the game, from small ball to power ball, but even Ruth gave up pitching after less than two full seasons of doing both in 1918 and 1919. He would lead all players in WAR in every five-year stretch starting from 1920-24 through 1929-33, except 1921-25, when Hornsby topped him (50.1 to 48.2). Indeed, as great as Ruth was, Hornsby wasn’t too far behind as a hitter. From 1920 to 1924, Hornsby hit .395 with a 199 OPS+; from 1921 to 1925, he hit .402 with a 204 OPS+. Ruth also went just 1-2 in World Series in this stretch, so Ohtani has the edge in championships.
Joe DiMaggio, CF, 1937-41: 38.7 WAR
Five-year average: .350 BA, 168 OPS+, 34 HR, 138 RBIs, 121 R, .638 SLG, 7.7 WAR
Led league: 3x WAR, 2x BA, 1x HR
Achievements: 2x MVP, 4x WS champ, 56-game hit streak
WAR percentage over No. 2 player in span: +16.9% (Johnny Mize)
The case for DiMaggio over Ohtani: DiMaggio was the ultimate winner: In his 13 years in the majors, he played in 10 World Series, winning nine times, including going 4-for-4 in this stretch. In these five years, he finished second, sixth, first, third and first, respectively, in the MVP voting. He had more home runs than strikeouts over all five seasons (169 home runs, 121 strikeouts) and holds perhaps the greatest — or at least the most famous — record in baseball history, his 56-game hitting streak in 1941.
The case for Ohtani over DiMaggio: When you dig into the advanced metrics, DiMaggio’s value just isn’t quite as impressive as some other players here. This was a high offensive era, so DiMaggio’s adjusted OPS topped out at 185 in 1941 — a figure Ohtani matched in 2023, beat in 2024 and just missed in 2025. DiMaggio’s total WAR is also lowest on the list. The Yankees won all four World Series in this period, but DiMaggio didn’t hit particularly well at .278/.316/.403 with 10 RBIs in 18 games. Oh, and while Ohtani stole 59 bases in 2024, DiMaggio stole 30 in his entire career.
Ted Williams, LF, 1941-48: 49.3 WAR
Five-year average: .362 BA, 212 OPS+, 34 HR, 124 RBIs, 133 R, .508 OBP, 9.9 WAR
Led league: 4x WAR, 4x BA, 3x HR, 2x RBIs, 5x OPS
Achievements: 1x MVP, 2x Triple Crown
WAR percentage over No. 2 player in span: +51.2% (DiMaggio)
The case for Williams over Ohtani: Williams’ peak was interrupted by three missing seasons while he served in World War II (as was the case with DiMaggio), but we’ll give him credit for his five consecutive seasons played when he towered over the sport, at least in value: an incredible 50% higher WAR than DiMaggio over the five seasons in question, the largest gap on the list. In 1941, he became the last player to hit .400. While he won just one MVP award in these years, he finished second three times and third in the other year — not winning it in either Triple Crown season or the year he hit .406. Williams famously said he wanted to be known as the greatest hitter who ever lived. He might have been.
The case for Ohtani over Williams: No rings. That was the knock against Williams while he was active, especially in comparison to DiMaggio, as Williams played in just one World Series in 1946. (The Boston Red Sox lost in seven games.) He was indifferent in the field and on the basepaths. While Ohtani has become one of the most riveting players in the sport — even having his dog “throw” out the first pitch at a Dodgers game — Williams never connected with the fans in the same way. “Though we thumped, wept, and chanted ‘We want Ted’ for minutes after he hid in the dugout, he did not come back,” John Updike wrote in his essay on Williams’ final home game. “Gods do not answer letters.”
Mickey Mantle, CF, 1954-58: 47.7 WAR
Five-year average: .325 BA, 191 OPS+, 38 HR, 104 RBIs, 126 R, .451 OBP, 9.5 WAR
Led league: 4x WAR, 1x BA, 3x HR, 2x OPS
Achievements: 2x MVP, 1x Triple Crown, 2x WS champ
WAR percentage over No. 2 player in span: +4.1% (Willie Mays)
The case for Mantle over Ohtani: If part of the answer to our question is some undefinable combination of popularity, adoration and just pure presence, then Mantle rises to the top of the list. Until his knees went bad, he could run like the wind, regarded as the fastest player in the game. Nobody hit longer home runs — and he did it from both sides of the plate. “No man in the history of baseball had as much power as Mickey Mantle,” Billy Martin, his teammate on the Yankees, once said. Mantle’s Triple Crown season in 1956 — .353, 52 home runs, 130 RBIs, 11.3 WAR — is one of the greatest seasons ever. He matched that with another 11.3-WAR season in 1957, when he hit .363. He had a .935 OPS in 23 World Series games in this period.
The case for Ohtani over Mantle: Well, Billy Martin never saw Ohtani hit home runs — like the home run he hit in the National League Championship Series that became the eighth to ever leave Dodger Stadium. If only we could add Mantle’s 1961 season (10.5 WAR) to his 1955-58 peak, rather than using 1954 (6.9 WAR) or 1959 (6.6 WAR). Of course, even then, Mays would still be right there alongside him in value. The Yankees went 2-2 in the World Series in this period, losing twice when Mantle missed games with injuries. That speaks to his value but also to his inability to always be at his best.
Willie Mays, CF, 1962-66: 52.3 WAR
Five-year average: .304 BA, 169 OPS+, 45 HR, 114 RBIs, 117 R, .601 SLG, 10.5 WAR
Led league: 5x WAR, 3x HR, 2x SLG, 2x OPS
Achievements: 1x MVP, 5x Gold Glove
WAR percentage over No. 2 player in span: +30% (Henry Aaron)
The case for Mays over Ohtani: Whoa … 30% better than Aaron? 53% more valuable than Frank Robinson? 64% more valuable than Roberto Clemente? And this is when they were all still in their peak years. Yes, Willie could ball. This stretch includes four 10-WAR seasons, and while Mays won just one MVP award, the voters could have given it to him every season. Amazingly, this also covers Mays’ age-31-to-age-35 seasons, a testament to his conditioning and durability. “I think I was the best ballplayer I ever saw,” Mays himself would say after he retired. He might be right. His five-year WAR trails only Ruth on this list and easily beats Ohtani.
The case for Ohtani over Mays: There’s no denying Mays’ all-around brilliance, but even adjusted for the low offensive environment of this period, he wasn’t as valuable a hitter as some others here and is basically equal to Ohtani: Mays created about 267 more runs than the average hitter while Ohtani is at 260. Does Mays’ defense in center field trump Ohtani’s pitching? You could also argue the biggest star in the game over these five seasons was Sandy Koufax, who won three Cy Young Awards and two World Series. (Mays’ Giants played in one in this period and lost.)
Joe Morgan, 2B, 1972-76: 47.8 WAR
Five-year average: .303 BA, 163 OPS+, 22 HR, 85 RBIs, 113 R, 62 SB, 9.6 WAR
Led league: 4x WAR, 4x OBP, 2x OPS
Achievements: 2x MVP, 4x Gold Glove, 2x WS champ
WAR percentage over No. 2 player in span: +36.6% (Bobby Grich)
The case for Morgan over Ohtani: Perhaps the most underrated all-time great player, Morgan excelled in secondary skills: He averaged 118 walks per season in this period, stole bases at a high percentage and won four Gold Gloves. His power numbers don’t jump out, but this was a low-offense period, with the NL averaging just 4.06 runs per game from 1972 to 1976. (The MLB average in 2025 was 4.45.) Morgan’s 1.020 OPS in 1976 was more than 100 points higher than the next guy. It all added up to an enormously valuable player who was head and shoulders above the No. 2 player in WAR over this period. Oh, and like the Dodgers, the Cincinnati Reds won back-to-back World Series in 1975 and 1976, Morgan’s two MVP years.
The case for Ohtani over Morgan: OK, we understand now that Morgan was underappreciated in his own time and his skills more subtle than obvious, but it’s also true that in the 1970s, his Reds teammates Johnny Bench and Pete Rose were regarded as the bigger stars. In terms of raw numbers, Ohtani wins in a landslide: Morgan hit 108 home runs and drove in 427 runs compared with 233 and 522 for Ohtani (and Ohtani’s adjusted OPS was also higher). Again, it’s a question of whether Morgan’s defense and position was more valuable than Ohtani’s pitching.
Mike Schmidt, 3B, 1977-81: 39.5 WAR
Five-year average: .274 BA, 157 OPS+, 37 HR, 101 RBIs, 100 R, 7.9 WAR
Led league: 3x WAR, 2x HR, 2x OPS
Achievements: 2x MVP, 5x Gold Glove, 1x WS champ
WAR percentage over No. 2 player in span: +15.2% (George Brett)
The case for Schmidt over Ohtani: As Bill James once wrote of Schmidt, “True, he didn’t hit .320. If he had, he would be the greatest player who ever lived.” Schmidt was a 2020s-type player — a Three True Outcomes slugger — trapped in an era of big, multipurpose stadiums. If he had played in a different era, like today’s with smaller parks, he would have had a bunch of 50-home run seasons. (He led the NL eight times in home runs over his career.) Schmidt also drew 100 walks a year, won 10 Gold Gloves and is regarded as the greatest third baseman of all time.
The case for Ohtani over Schmidt: Ohtani’s total value easily eclipsed Schmidt’s run. Indeed, it was difficult coming up with a player to represent the 1980s. Rickey Henderson spread out his three best seasons (1980, 1985, 1990). Wade Boggs had a great five-year stretch from 1985 to 1989, when he averaged 8.4 WAR, but nobody would call Boggs the player of the decade. As for Schmidt, his best season would have been 1981 — when he hit .316, the only time he hit .300, and his second of back-to-back MVP years — but the strike interrupted the season, and he played just 102 games. If we could pick Schmidt’s five best nonconsecutive seasons, he’d have a better argument.
Barry Bonds, LF, 1990-94: 42.9 WAR
Five-year average: .310 BA, 185 OPS+, 35 HR, 107 RBIs, 105 R, 38 SB, 8.6 WAR
Led league: 4x WAR, 1x HR, 1x RBIs, 4x OPS
Achievements: 3x MVP, 5x Gold Glove
WAR percentage over No. 2 player in span: 26.9% (Ken Griffey Jr.)
The case for 1990s Bonds over Ohtani: Let’s call this Bonds I. For most of the decade, the argument was Bonds vs. Griffey. Well, even Griffey’s five best seasons from the 1990s (41.6 WAR) don’t quite match Bonds’ five-year run from 1990 to 1994, which includes the strike-shortened 1994 season. Bonds won three MVP awards (and probably should have won a fourth in 1991) and posted OPS+ figures over 200 in 1992 and 1993 — which Ohtani has never done. This Bonds was an annual Gold Glove winner and one of the best baserunners in the game (stealing as many as 52 bases in 1990).
The case for Ohtani over 1990s Bonds: As good as Bonds was, and as terrific as his all-around game was, Ohtani’s still had more value. And we have to factor in Ohtani’s two titles here versus Bonds’ zero. The Pittsburgh Pirates made the playoffs three straight years from 1990 to 1992, and Bonds completely flopped, hitting .191/.337/.265 with six RBIs in 20 games. Case closed.
Barry Bonds, 2000-04: 51.1 WAR
Five-year average: .339 BA, 241 OPS+, 52 HR, 109 RBIs, 123 R, 10.2 WAR
Led league: 4x WAR, 1x HR, 4x OPS
Achievements: 4x MVP, record 73 HRs
WAR percentage over No. 2 player in span: +17.5% (Alex Rodriguez)
The case for 2000s Bonds over Ohtani: And now we have Bonds II, when he put up a five-year run at the plate that neither Ruth nor Williams even matched. In 2001, Bonds mashed 73 home runs with an 0.863 slugging percentage. The next year, he hit .370 with a .582 OBP. He “slumped” all the way to .341 with a 1.278 OPS in 2003 and then hit .362 with 232 walks, a .609 (!) OBP and 1.422 OPS in 2004. The numbers don’t seem real. His combined WAR, including 11.9 in 2001, 11.7 in 2002 and 10.6 in 2004, is third behind Ruth and Mays and still significantly ahead of Ohtani. Bonds is the only player to win four straight MVP awards — oh, and he finished second the year he didn’t win.
The case for Ohtani over 2000s Bonds: Well, Bonds didn’t pitch. His defense and baserunning had declined. He still didn’t win — although the San Francisco Giants did reach the World Series in 2002 and Bonds had one of the best postseasons ever. And he certainly couldn’t match Ohtani in popularity.
Five-year average: .310 BA, 173 OPS+, 33 HR, 96 RBIs, 116 R, 28 SB, 9.4 WAR
Led league: 5x WAR, 4x R, 1x RBIs, 1x SB, 1x OPS
Achievements: 2x MVP
WAR percentage over No. 2 player in span: +44.9% (Robinson Cano)
The case for Trout over Ohtani: Young Trout was truly something, deservedly drawing comparisons to the best players of all time, starting with a 10.5-WAR season as a rookie in 2012 and another 10.4-WAR season in 2016 (both figures slightly higher than Ohtani’s best of 10.0). He won his two MVPs in this stretch and finished second in the voting the other three years. He hit for average, drew walks, stole bases and played solid defense. (And when the ball got a little livelier later in the decade, his OPS would climb even higher.) His five-year WAR crushes Cano, the No. 2 position player, and also beats out Ohtani’s five-year total. While the Los Angeles Angels made the playoffs only in 2014, Trout was still unquestionably viewed as the best player in the game, a title he would hold down all the way through 2019, when he captured his third MVP award. Alas, injuries would mar his career after that.
The case for Ohtani over Trout: Ohtani left the Angels, Trout stayed. The two World Series titles add a vital element to Ohtani’s legacy and stardom that Trout will always lack. As good as Trout was, it’s also probably fair to say he lacked the magnetism of Ohtani (or the charisma of Griffey, to whom he was so often compared early on).
The marathon has now become a sprint. Three weeks remain in the regular season and the chaos that has made this one of the more intriguing college football seasons in recent memory is set to deliver a thrilling, potentially chaotic final stretch.
Only three undefeated teams remain — Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M have all proven to be not just the cream of the crop but likely College Football Playoff shoo-ins, while behind them, a slew of teams are teetering on a thin line between being in or out.
This week features four ranked matchups that could shift the playoff picture dramatically. No. 9 Notre Dame’s margin for error is zero as it faces a 7-2 Pittsburgh team that is also eyeing a playoff spot — or according to Pat Narduzzi, the ACC championship. Iowa had its dreams dashed by Oregon last week, but now it’ll be USC which faces the No. 21 Hawkeyes in Los Angeles, knowing that if it wins out, USC will likely punch its ticket to its first CFP.
Meanwhile, two-loss, No. 10 Texas has surged back into the playoff picture, only to be faced with having to beat No. 5 Georgia in Athens this week. You can say the same thing about the two-loss, 11th-ranked Sooners; Oklahoma’s own outside shot at a playoff will require a win against No. 4 Alabama in Tuscaloosa this week.
Buckle up. — Paolo Uggetti
Jump to:
Texas-Georgia | Key matchups
ACC title race | Quotes of the week
What have Texas, Georgia done well in conference play?
Texas: Texas and Arch Manning appeared to have found a groove in the play-action game, completing 86% of such throws, on 12.1 yards per attempt with three TDs and no interceptions against Vanderbilt versus 64% completion and 7.2 yards per play in the season’s first eight games, according to ESPN Analytics. Manning has eclipsed 300 yards with three touchdowns in each of the past two games, becoming the first Texas QB to do that since Sam Ehlinger in 2018.
Behind an improved offensive line, the Texas offense is much more efficient, and coach Steve Sarkisian praised the growth and maturity of Manning running the offense. But the defense, meanwhile, has struggled as of late. After allowing just 11.3 points per game in the first seven games, they’ve allowed 30 points in back-to-back games. The pass defense has been particularly leaky, allowing 382 yards to Mississippi State and 365 to Vanderbilt. — Dave Wilson
Georgia: Georgia’s defense was its shortcoming earlier this season, but the Bulldogs have played better lately on that side of the ball. After struggling to get off the field on third downs, Florida went only 2-for-11 on third down in Georgia’s 24-20 victory on Nov. 1. Last week, after giving up a touchdown to Mississippi State on its opening possession, the Bulldogs settled down and had three sacks in a 41-21 win. Last season, Georgia defeated Texas twice: 30-15 in Austin in the regular season and 22-19 in overtime in the SEC championship game.
Defense was the primary reason the Bulldogs won both of those games: They had 13 sacks combined and allowed the Longhorns to rush for fewer than 35 yards in each game. The Longhorns were only 2-for-15 on third down in the first loss. Georgia needs to continue to be disruptive on defense, shut down the running game again and get pressure on Manning to get him out of rhythm. — Mark Schlabach
What’s at stake in each matchup?
Iowa-USC: Despite getting dominated on the ground by Notre Dame to the tune of 306 yards in Week 8, USC has not gone away. It only has one conference loss — a two-point heartbreaker against Illinois earlier in the season — and now find itself with a very clear mandate: Win out and the Trojans can all but guarantee the program’s first ever College Football Playoff appearance.
The first obstacle in front of them is Iowa, which comes to Los Angeles after watching its own Big Ten and playoff chances evaporate in a close loss to Oregon. The Hawkeyes could not be more stylistically different than the Trojans and, like they did against Oregon, will try to slow down and muddy the game to their liking. If USC can’t establish a good rhythm on offense, it will have to try and beat Iowa at its own game.
Lincoln Riley’s team has one of the most effective offenses in the nation, leading to at least 30 points scored in all but one game this season. That happened against Nebraska a few weeks ago, but USC was still able to pull out a very Big Ten win with its defense. Chances are, the Trojans will be forced to do the same this Saturday if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. — Uggetti
Notre Dame-Pitt: Saturday’s showdown between No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 22 Pitt is, oddly enough, bigger for the Irish than the Panthers. As Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi noted in his weekly news conference, Notre Dame can utterly demolish Pitt, but Narduzzi’s squad will still have a ready path to the ACC title game and, thus, a playoff berth. Of course, that’s not a scenario worth counting on, and a win for Pitt would do wonders to erase the stain of a September loss to West Virginia and prop up an ACC desperately in need of something positive to cling to.
For Notre Dame, however, the stakes are far clearer: Its past two games of the season are against awful Syracuse and Stanford teams, making this matchup against Pitt all but a win-and-you’re-in contest for the Irish. The committee has Notre Dame safely in the field now, and it’s hard to envision how a 10-2 Irish team could fall down the playoff ladder, so this is probably the only serious hurdle remaining. It is a hurdle, however, particularly given Pitt’s exceptional pass rush, and if the Panthers can pull off the upset, it would have the opposite effect on Notre Dame, likely ending the Irish’s playoff hopes. — David Hale
Oklahoma-Alabama: Championships and CFP stakes are on the line when the Sooners travel to take on the Crimson Tide. But nobody has to tell either team that, particularly Alabama — which cost itself an at-large berth in the CFP last season after a disappointing 24-3 loss in Norman. During his news conference this week, Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said he wants the players who played in that game to remember it because “our experiences help us be better the next time around.”
That certainly was the case earlier this year when Alabama beat Vanderbilt and Tennessee — two teams it also lost to a season ago. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson said he has gotten some advice on this Sooners defense from a good friend — Texas quarterback Arch Manning. Texas beat Oklahoma last month, 23-6, and Manning threw for 166 yards and a touchdown and ran for 34 more. Alabama can clinch a spot in the SEC championship game with a win and losses by Georgia and Texas A&M.
As for Oklahoma, a win over Alabama for a second straight year would only serve to bolster its CFP résumé, particularly because the Sooners remain on the outside looking in for an at-large berth as of now. Though they rank in the top 12, two conference champions — presumably the ACC and the top Group of 5 team — would take the final two spots in the 12-team playoff. Oklahoma had an open date after its win over Tennessee to prepare for Alabama, though coach Brent Venables said there is little carry-over from its result against the Tide last year.
“The season for both of us is impacted by the result at the end of the night,” he said. “Who wouldn’t be excited to play Oklahoma-Alabama? Two of the most iconic programs in college football.” — Andrea Adelson
Why the road to the ACC title game is up for grabs
The ACC is a hot mess, and not in the fun contestant on “Love Island” sort of way. It’s more of the “Oh, no, what if Duke wins the conference championship and they give the playoff berth to James Madison instead?” sort of way.
In other words, these are dark times for the conference.
Set aside that two of the biggest brands in the league — Clemson and Florida State — are floundering through lost seasons.
Set aside that its four highest-ranked teams have all lost to unranked foes in the past two weeks.
Set aside the very real possibility that the eventual league champion might have a loss to UConn, West Virginia or Baylor.
Any one of those items would be bad enough. But it’s the fact that they’re all happening concurrently, that Miami is sabotaging itself again and injuries upended Louisville and Virginia runs, and Pat Narduzzi is waxing poetic about Notre Dame scoring 100 against Pitt — it’s a perfect storm of bad results, bad press and bad options remaining for the ACC.
Look at NC State, a team that’s stuck navigating a disappointing 5-4 campaign in which it lost to woeful Virginia Tech, but also has delivered brutal blows to both Virginia’s and Georgia Tech‘s playoff hopes and could add Miami to that list this weekend. There are no winners here!
There’s an argument that much of this is just a narrative issue, that when the SEC beats up on itself, it’s a testament to the conference’s depth, but when the ACC does it, it means everyone stinks. There’s some truth in that argument. But the results still tell a bleak story. Coming off a 2-11 bowl season in 2024, the ACC now has six losses outside of the Power 4 and a worse record in Power 4 nonconference wins than the American Conference. No wonder the ACC doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt.
So now we peer into the future and wonder what comes next. Georgia Tech has the best odds of winning the league, according to FPI, at 35%. But next up is Duke at 20%. The Blue Devils have losses to Illinois, Tulane and UConn, and if they were to win it all, there’s a good chance the ACC gets passed by a second Group of 5 champion — something the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives a 26% chance of happening. The same might be true if SMU wins it. The Mustangs have the third-best odds at 19.5%, followed by Virginia (13.6%) and Pitt (4%). The highest-ranked ACC team, Miami, has the lowest title odds of teams with a chance to still win it, and has a better chance of making the playoff than the ACC title game.
In other words, the ACC Wheel of Destiny is back in action, Coastal Chaos has spread throughout the entire conference, and the next few weeks will either see a true favorite emerge or ensure the ACC is the most derided power league in recent memory. — Hale
Quotes of the week
“Absolutely not,” Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi said when asked if Saturday’s visit from Notre Dame is a “must-win” game for the Panthers. “It’s not an ACC game. Glad you brought that up. I’d gladly get beat 103 … or 110-10 in that game. They can put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two. Again, our focus is on Notre Dame and getting as many wins as we can.”
“This team didn’t beat Texas,” Georgia’s Kirby Smart said of his Bulldogs, who swept Texas across two meetings in 2024. “And Texas hasn’t played this team of ours. So, two completely different teams in my opinion. I think it has zero effect on it.”
Texas A&M’s Mike Elko on South Carolina’s 2025 schedule, which ranks fourth in strength of schedule nationally, per ESPN’s College Football Power Index: “I don’t know what they did to the scheduling gods to get the schedule that they’ve got.”
“I was told about it. I haven’t heard it,” Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said of Clemson’s Dabo Swinney mimicking his voice over the weekend after Venables visited the program in Week 11. “He’s got me down. He’s got about everybody down. He’s good at the impressions.”
Dabo Swinney channeling his inner Brent Venables is pure gold pic.twitter.com/LwRQtAc4Nh
— Jordan Woodson (@Jordan_Woodson) November 9, 2025
“I’ve actually won a championship and we’re going to do it again,” Florida State’s Mike Norvell said in a passionate defense of his track record and the Seminoles’ trajectory. “We’re going to do it here. That might piss people off. So be it. They’ll be celebrating when we’re hoisting a trophy, and it will be the belief that I see from our players, the belief that I see from our coaches, the talent that I know that our players have, and the guys that are coming to be a part of this.”
“Getting ready for Wake Forest, that’s all I got this week,” said North Carolina‘s Bill Belichick following questions about potential interest in the New York Giants head coaching job.
“Look I’ve been down this road before,” Belichick continued. “I’m focused on Wake Forest, that’s it. That’s my commitment to this team. This week it’s Wake Forest, next week it’s that opponent and so forth. I’m here to do the best for this team.”
-
Pamela Maldonado
Week 12 is here, and the board finally feels like it’s talking back. Some totals are whispering, some spreads are screaming and a couple of these games … well, they’re practically sending handwritten invitations.
This week’s card is a mix of unders (been loving my under lately) that make too much sense, a dog that plays like it wants to bite, and a few matchups where the math and the matchup actually agree for once.
Think of it as a little buffet of conviction.
All odds by ESPN BET
Bet to make: Boise State team total UNDER 19.5
With Max Cutforth at quarterback, this offense simply loses its punch. His 4.4 yards per attempt and 51% completion rate limits the explosive abilities right now, it’s a unit trying to survive through the run game and short-field drives.
That’s a problem against a San Diego State defense that’s been elite at home. The Aztecs have allowed just 31 total points in their four home games, holding three opponents to seven points or less.
Their front should overwhelm a Boise State offensive line that’s given up 18 sacks on the season breaking in a new QB behind center. Boise State’s run game has been solid, but this matchup flips its strength against San Diego State’s biggest advantage, a front seven that wins early downs and forces third-and-longs.
San Diego State’s methodical pace also limits possessions. The math, the matchup and the trend all align. Boise State’s defense might keep it close, but the offense doesn’t have enough juice to cash this over.
Bet to make: Jacksonville State +3.5
The Gamecocks have found their rhythm with a ground game that is among the best in Conference USA, averaging 252 rushing yards per game at 5.2 yards per carry.
RB Cam Cook has been a steady force, while QB Caden Creel‘s mobility adds another layer that keeps defenses guessing. They don’t rely on big plays as much as they wear teams down with tempo, time of possession and physicality.
That style is exactly what can frustrate a Kennesaw State defense that has been solid overall but has shown cracks against run-heavy offenses late in games.
Jacksonville State has the game to survive close ones. The +3.5 provides cushion in what should be another possession-for-possession battle. If your bankroll allows for a bit more volatility, the +140 money line is worth a look.
Jacksonville State has the formula to control pace and pull off another outright win.
Bet to make: UCF team total Under 10.5
Texas Tech is built to smother teams like UCF. The Knights’ offense is running on fumes, and the matchup in Lubbock feels like walking into a buzzsaw.
The Knights are averaging 11.3 points per game in conference play on the road, with a drop-off that’s been steep from moving the ball between the 20s to completely stalling once they cross midfield. That’s the biggest red flag going up against a Texas Tech defensive front, led by David Bailey and Romello Height, that sits among the best in the country in pressure rate and sacks.
The problem is twofold: protection and finishing. UCF’s offensive line has struggled to handle pressure, and Texas Tech leads the Big 12 in sacks with 29 while leading the country in pressures. When you combine that with UCF’s 32% third-down rate, it paints a picture of a team that’s constantly behind the sticks, forced into long-yardage situations it can’t convert. Even if UCF moves the ball, red zone trips have been few and unproductive.
It’s hard to find a realistic path to 11 points for the Knights. Texas Tech has size, depth and energy at home. UCF’s offense simply doesn’t.
Bet to make: TCU team total Under 23.5
BYU’s entire identity is built on reducing possessions, winning with efficiency and forcing opponents into long fields. Its defense is not elite on a yards basis, but it tightens in the red zone and creates game-changing moments with sacks and interceptions. Add it up, and 21 sacks, 12 interceptions and a positive turnover ratio tell you this defense plays opportunistic football.
The other piece of this is BYU’s offense, which runs for 200 yards per game and controls time of possession. That’s a huge part of why I lean under rather than a side. If BYU plays its game, it shrinks the possessions and keeps opponents to eight or nine true scoring opportunities. TCU needs efficiency to break 24 points. The Horned Frogs haven’t been that team away from home.
BYU’s defense gets the pricing respect. TCU’s total is shaded to the under and BYU is favored because its style travels and its defense sustains it.
-
Sports2 years agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports3 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Sports3 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment1 year agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024