NHL playoff watch: Projecting the Jets’ finish

The NHL schedule Tuesday night includes a special volumetric broadcast of the Washington Capitals–New York Rangers game, where the action on the ice will be transformed into the world of “Big City Greens.” That broadcast will be available on the Disney Channel, Disney XD, Disney+ and ESPN+, with the traditional version available on ESPN and ESPN+.

But beyond the innovation on display in that game, there are 11 other games on the docket, including a battle of two playoff-bound teams as the Winnipeg Jets visit the Carolina Hurricanes. The Canes are neck-and-neck with the New Jersey Devils atop the Metropolitan Division. But where will the Jets finish in a crowded Central Division?

The Jets have been playing leapfrog with the Colorado Avalanche for the Central’s No. 3 slot on a game-by-game basis for the past several days. After Monday night’s action, the Jets are in the West’s second wild-card spot, with 79 points and 29 regulation wins through 67 games. The Central crown is not out of the realm of mathematical possibility, as the Minnesota Wild are at 84 points and 27 regulation wins while the Dallas Stars are at 87 points and 31 regulation wins. Moneypuck gives the Jets a 2.4% chance to win the division title, a 14.3% chance of the Central’s No. 2 seed, and a 30.6% chance of their division’s No. 3 spot; the chances of the two wild-card slots are 18.0% and 19.8%, respectively.

After the game Tuesday, Winnipeg has five games against teams currently in playoff position, including a season-closing two-game road stint at the Wild and Avalanche.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s games
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Pittsburgh Penguins
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Edmonton Oilers
C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Seattle Kraken

Tuesday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Winnipeg Jets at Carolina Hurricanes, 7 p.m.
Washington Capitals at New York Rangers, 7 p.m. (ESPN, ESPN+, Disney+)
Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m.
Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers, 7 p.m.
Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 p.m.
Detroit Red Wings at Nashville Predators, 8 p.m.
Boston Bruins at Chicago Blackhawks, 8:30 p.m.
Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers, 9 p.m.
Calgary Flames at Arizona Coyotes, 10 p.m.
Dallas Stars at Vancouver Canucks, 10 p.m.
New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings, 10:30 p.m.
Columbus Blue Jackets at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m.

Monday’s scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Colorado Avalanche 8, Montreal Canadiens 4
Buffalo Sabres 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Dallas Stars 5, Seattle Kraken 2

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 105
Regulation wins: 43
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 133
Next game: @ CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. COL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ NJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89
Next game: vs. MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 38%
Tragic number: 27

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 88
Next game: @ WSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 12%
Tragic number: 27

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 87
Next game: @ EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 5%
Tragic number: 26

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 2%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 71
Next game: @ PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 12

Metropolitan Division

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 119
Next game: vs. WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 117
Next game: vs. TB (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 97
Next game: vs. MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 85%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ LA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 47%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 87
Next game: @ NYR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 12%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 73
Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 15

Points: 47
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 59
Next game: @ SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 5

Central Division

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 107
Next game: @ VAN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ STL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 97%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 101
Next game: @ TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 97
Next game: @ CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 74%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 94
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 33%
Tragic number: 30

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 78
Next game: vs. MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 16

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 72
Next game: vs. CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 62
Next game: vs. BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 3

Pacific Division

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 108
Next game: @ PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 99
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 88%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 95%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89
Next game: @ ARI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 17%
Tragic number: 24

Points: 61
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 77
Next game: vs. DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 16

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 66
Next game: vs. NYI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 5

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 61
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 1

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order at the top of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team might move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 47
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 12

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 61
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28

Notes on traded picks impacting the top 16: