NHL playoff watch: The Sabres’ path to the postseason

On Wednesday, we pondered whether the Buffalo Sabres or Washington Capitals — who were facing off that night — could earn themselves a playoff spot. Prior to that game, the Sabres’ playoff chances stood at 16%, per FiveThirtyEight.

The Caps would win that night’s game via shootout, and the Sabres would go on to lose Friday’s game against the Philadelphia Flyers 5-2. Their playoff chances are now at 7%.

If there is a path for Buffalo to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2010-11, it begins with Sunday’s matchup against the Boston Bruins (1 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+). Thus far this season, the Bruins have won two games cleanly (3-1 on Nov. 12 and 7-1 on March 2), while the Sabres won 4-3 in OT on New Years Eve. A win against the Bruins might be a tough assignment based on what we saw against Philly on Friday.

Beyond Sunday, six of the Sabres’ final 13 games will be against teams currently in playoff position. They’ll also face their fellow wild-card seekers — the Florida Panthers, Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators — one time apiece.

So this is not an impossible task, but it’s certainly a tough one. The good news: The Sabres will play a game on the season’s final day against the basement-dwelling Columbus Blue Jackets, so they’ll be in a good spot if they happen to need just two extra points to push them into the postseason.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s games
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Pittsburgh Penguins
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 New York Islanders
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Colorado Avalanche vs. C3 Minnesota Wild
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

Sunday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres, 1 p.m.
Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild, 2 p.m. (NHLN)
Columbus Blue Jackets at Vegas Golden Knights, 4 p.m.
Nashville Predators at New York Rangers, 7 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues, 7 p.m.
New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7 p.m. (NHLN)
Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks, 8 p.m.

Saturday’s scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Colorado Avalanche 5, Detroit Red Wings 1
Boston Bruins 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Winnipeg Jets 3, Nashville Predators 2 (OT)
Edmonton Oilers 6, Seattle Kraken 4
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Florida Panthers 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Montreal Canadiens 3
New York Rangers 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Dallas Stars 6, Calgary Flames 5 (OT)
Vancouver Canucks 3, Los Angeles Kings 2 (SO)
Arizona Coyotes 4, Chicago Blackhawks 2
New York Islanders 4, San Jose Sharks 1

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 109
Regulation wins: 45
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 131
Next game: @ BUF (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 93
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 12
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. NJ (Sunday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ DET (Monday)
Playoff chances: 63%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. BOS (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 7%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 84
Next game: @ PIT (Monday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 19

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. FLA (Monday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 19

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 70
Next game: vs. TB (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 6

Metropolitan Division

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 118
Next game: @ NYR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 95
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 113
Next game: @ TB (Sunday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. NSH (Sunday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 92
Next game: s. TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 63%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. OTT (Monday)
Playoff chances: 60%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ MIN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 5%
Tragic number: 19

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 59
Next game: @ VGK (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Central Division

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 12
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. CHI (Monday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 102
Next game: vs. WSH (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 95
Next game: @ STL (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 71%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 93
Next game: @ NYR (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 22%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 78
Next game: vs. WPG (Sunday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 12

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 76
Next game: @ WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 7

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 64
Next game: @ COL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Pacific Division

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. CBJ (Sunday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. CGY (Monday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 12
Points pace: 101
Next game: vs. SJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 99
Next game: @ DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 89%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 90
Next game: @ LA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 21%
Tragic number: 20

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 78
Next game: @ ANA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 12

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 67
Next game: vs. VAN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 1

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 61
Next game: @ EDM (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team might move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 30

Notes on traded picks impacting the top 16: