NHL playoff watch: Clarifying the Central Division chaos

Heading into Thursday night’s massive 14-game slate, the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild each have 98 points atop the Central Division. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, this is the second time in NHL history that the top three clubs in a division all had the same number of points at this stage of a season (with all three having completed 90% or more of their schedule).

(For the history buffs, the last time was 2016-17, when the Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks and Edmonton Oilers all had 91 points through March 25, 2017.)

So which team will ultimately prevail as the regular-season division champ? And will the Winnipeg Jets and Nashville Predators join the postseason party?

Importantly, the Avs have an extra game in hand on everyone. But if the points end up the same after Game 82 for each team, the Stars as of now have an edge in regulation wins (35, compared to 32 for the Avs and Wild).

After Thursday night’s game against the Sharks (10:30 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), the Avs complete their California road trip against the Los Angeles Kings (Saturday) and Ducks (Sunday), before home matchups with the Oilers (April 11) and Jets (April 13). Finally, they’ll close things out with a road game against the Preds on April 14.

The Stars host the Flyers on Thursday (8:30 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), then the Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday, before road games against the Detroit Red Wings and St. Louis Blues, and a final game against the Blues to finish things off.

Minnesota has, in theory, the most challenging opponent Thursday, the Pittsburgh Penguins (7 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), then hosts the Blues, travels to take on the Chicago Blackhawks, and closes out with a home game against Winnipeg and a road game against Nashville.

Money Puck gives the Avs the edge in the division race, with a 45.4% chance, followed by the Stars (37.1%) and Wild (17.5%).

How about those wild cards? The Jets, who are tied in standings points with the Calgary Flames (but have a three-regulation win edge and a game in hand), finish their season with games against the Preds, Sharks, Wild and Avs. The Preds, who are three points and five regulation wins behind the Jets, have the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+/Hulu), followed by the Jets, Flames, Wild and Avs. FiveThirtyEight gives Winnipeg a 59% chance of getting a wild card, while the Preds’ chances are 12%.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s games
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Florida Panthers
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Minnesota Wild
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

Thursday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings, 7 p.m.
Ottawa Senators at Florida Panthers, 7 p.m.
Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m.
Columbus Blue Jackets at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m.
Minnesota Wild at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 p.m.
Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders, 7:30 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators, 8 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
New York Rangers at St. Louis Blues, 8 p.m.
Philadelphia Flyers at Dallas Stars, 8:30 p.m.
Chicago Blackhawks at Vancouver Canucks, 10 p.m.
Los Angeles Kings at Vegas Golden Knights, 10 p.m.
Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m.
Arizona Coyotes at Seattle Kraken, 10:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)

Wednesday’s scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

New York Rangers 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Calgary Flames 3, Winnipeg Jets 1
Edmonton Oilers 3, Anaheim Ducks 1

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 125
Regulation wins: 50
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 5
Points pace: 133
Next game: vs. TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 102
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 5
Points pace: 109
Next game: @ BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 4
Points pace: 101
Next game: @ NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 4
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 76%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 6
Points pace: 87
Next game: @ DET (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 3%
Tragic number: 7

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 85
Next game: @ FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 3

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 84
Next game: vs. BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 2

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 69
Next game: vs. WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Metropolitan Division

Points: 109
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 5
Points pace: 116
Next game: @ NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 106
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 4
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 103
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 4
Points pace: 108
Next game: @ STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 4
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 78%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 90
Next game: vs. MIN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 43%
Tragic number: 8

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 82
Next game: @ MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 76
Next game: @ DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 60
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Central Division

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 6
Points pace: 106
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 5
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 5
Points pace: 104
Next game: @ PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 4
Points pace: 94
Next game: vs. NSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 59%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 12%
Tragic number: 7

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 70
Next game: @ SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 60
Next game: @ VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Pacific Division

Points: 104
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 4
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 103
Regulation wins: 43
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 3
Points pace: 107
Next game: @ SJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 4
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 5
Points pace: 100
Next game: vs. ARI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ VAN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 28%
Tragic number: 6

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 80
Next game: vs. CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 5
Points pace: 64
Next game: vs. COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 59
Next game: @ ARI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

P — Clinched Presidents’ Trophy; Y — Clinched division; X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30