NHL playoff watch: The final push for the Panthers

Entering the final week of the regular season, three teams are vying for two wild-card spots in the Eastern Conference. Heading into Monday night’s 10-game slate, the Florida Panthers have the slightest of edges as the No. 1 wild card: 91 points and 36 regulation wins in 80 games, compared to the No. 2 wild card New York Islanders (91 and 35 in 80) and Pittsburgh Penguins (90 and 31 in 80).

The Panthers don’t need to win out, but every point onward is critical. Their journey continues Monday when they host the Toronto Maple Leafs (7 p.m. ET, ESPN+/Hulu), a team that clinched a playoff berth back on March 28 and is locked into the No. 2 seed in the Atlantic Division.

The Leafs won the first matchup in overtime (5-4 on Jan. 17), then won the second game cleanly (6-2 on March 23) before the Panthers took the most recent game in OT (3-2 on March 29).

Following Monday’s game, the Panthers will close out the season Thursday night against the Carolina Hurricanes, who may have locked up the Metro Division title by then. FiveThirtyEight’s latest projections give the Panthers a 78% chance of making the playoffs, while the Isles are at 76% and the Penguins are at 45%.

Today’s clinching scenario: The Panthers can clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Maple Leafs in regulation or overtime and a regulation loss by the Islanders against the Capitals.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Florida Panthers
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Minnesota Wild
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

Monday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings, 7 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers, 7 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers, 7 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators, 7 p.m.
New York Islanders at Washington Capitals, 7 p.m.
San Jose Sharks at Winnipeg Jets, 7 p.m.
Minnesota Wild at Chicago Blackhawks, 9 p.m. (ESPN)
Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames, 9:30 p.m.
Seattle Kraken at Arizona Coyotes, 10 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at Los Angeles Kings, 10:30 p.m.

Sunday’s scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Boston Bruins 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Colorado Avalanche 5, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 131
Regulation wins: 52
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 134
Next game: vs. WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 105
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 3
Points pace: 109
Next game: @ FLA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 2
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. TOR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 78%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 4
Points pace: 89
Next game: @ NYR (Monday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 2

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 85
Next game: vs. CAR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. DAL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 70
Next game: @ NYI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Metropolitan Division

Points: 109
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 3
Points pace: 113
Next game: @ OTT (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 108
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 106
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 2
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. BUF (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 93
Next game: @ WSH (Monday)
Playoff chances: 76%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 45%
Tragic number: 3

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 80
Next game: vs. NYI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 73
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 58
Next game: @ PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Central Division

Points: 104
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 3
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 102
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 3
Points pace: 106
Next game: @ DET (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 3
Points pace: 104
Next game: @ CHI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 3
Points pace: 95
Next game: vs. SJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: 77%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 91
Next game: @ CGY (Monday)
Playoff chances: 5%
Tragic number: 3

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. DAL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 71
Next game: vs. SEA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 58
Next game: vs. MIN (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Pacific Division

Points: 107
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 110
Next game: vs. SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 105
Regulation wins: 44
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 108
Next game: @ COL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 2
Points pace: 103
Next game: vs. VAN (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 3
Points pace: 102
Next game: @ ARI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. NSH (Monday)
Playoff chances: 19%
Tragic number: 3

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 82
Next game: @ LA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 62
Next game: @ WPG (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 60
Next game: vs. VAN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

P — Clinched Presidents’ Trophy; Y — Clinched division; X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 30

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 30

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 31