The College Football Playoff National Championship game features two of the best teams in the nation as J.J. McCarthy and the Michigan Wolverines take on Michael Penix Jr. and the Washington Huskies at NRG Stadium in Houston. Who will win their first CFP title on Monday? What are the best prop bets to consider?
Dalen Cuff, Kevin Pulsifer and Tyler Fulghum offer thoughts and betting tips for the championship game.
No. 1 Michigan opened as a 5-point favorite over No. 2 Washington in Houston at ESPN BET. What are your thoughts on the current line for this game, and who do you like in this matchup?
Cuff: I loved Washington in the semifinal with the points, and now I’m still on the Huskies but with not as much confidence. The public is on them now, and that always concerns me. I think UW’s offensive line (which won the Joe Moore Award as the nation’s best OL) can protect Michael Penix Jr., who is the superior QB with vastly superior playmakers. The big question for me is: Can the Huskies hold up on the defensive line? I think the Wolverines will be able to run the ball, but this game will still be tight, and I’ll take the points with the Huskies.
Pulsifer: I finally turned the corner on the Huskies last week, just in time for them to pull another upset. When it happens once, it’s notable. When it happens twice, it’s a trend. Washington has now gone 5-0 as an underdog in the past two seasons, and I expect the Huskies to cover as long as their offensive line can give Penix enough time to find Rome Odunze & Co. downfield.
Fulghum: I think this number undervalues Washington a bit. Michigan deserves to be the favorite, but perhaps something closer to a field goal is more appropriate. All Washington does is win games and score points. They have an elite quarterback, maybe the best offensive line in the country and three NFL-caliber wide receivers to throw to. I not only like Washington with the points but wouldn’t be shocked at all if it wins this game outright because of its superior offensive ability.
The over/under total for Michigan-Washington is currently set at 55.5. With both teams scoring over 35 points per game during the regular season, should bettors expect another high-scoring affair in the national championship, or is the under a more intriguing option?
Cuff: As I mentioned above, I think the Wolverines can run and the Huskies can throw. The over in the CFP National Championship game is 7-2 historically. I think winner of this game is in the 30s and the loser is close behind, within a field goal, so the over is the play.
Pulsifer: I’m going to follow Dalen’s lead here with the over, although I think this total hinges on the first few drives. If Penix can capitalize with a big play or two early, it will speed up Michigan and the entire game will shift into overdrive. Washington needs to throw the first punch or the final score will end in the low 20s.
Fulghum: I prefer the under here. Michigan’s dominant defense and ability to run the football are likely going to create a game environment that is far less fertile than what Washington is used to playing in. Again, I firmly believe the Huskies can score on Michigan, just not as prolifically as other opponents. I feel like this game could have a 27-24 type of final score.
What is your favorite prop bet for Monday night’s game?
Cuff: Ja’Lynn Polk over 51.5 receiving yards. Clearly, I’m on the Huskies being able to throw the ball, but Michigan is extremely well coached and will focus on taking away Rome Odunze, so I think the other receivers, particularly Polk, can have a day. He has had 52 yards or more in every game except one this year, and I think that trend will continue with defensive attention focused elsewhere.
Pulsifer: J.J. McCarthy over 196.5 passing yards (-118). I know he went under this line in four straight games prior to the Alabama matchup, but he was dealing with an injury and facing elite Big Ten defenses in grind-it-out affairs. I think Jim Harbaugh knows he can’t play keep-away for 60 minutes, and 12 of 14 Washington opponents threw for 196-plus passing yards.
Fulghum: Michael Penix Jr. under 39.5 pass attempts (-122). Penix has only eclipsed this number four times this season in 13 games. His high-water mark is 42 attempts. Couple that with the fact that Michigan runs a ball-control type of offense that can limit possession time for the Huskies and this becomes an even stronger bet.
