Tesla (TSLA) warns of ‘notably lower’ growth in 2024

Tesla (TSLA)has released its guidance for the year, and it warns of “notably lower” growth of its auto business in 2024.

The automaker is notoriously not a fan of providing clear guidance despite having a probably better view into its own business than any other automaker because it owns its entire distribution business, unlike other automakers who use the third-party dealer model.

Instead, Tesla has been guiding a “roughly 50%” average annual growth rate for vehicle deliveries.

Today, Tesla released its Q4 and full-year 2023 financial results. With the results, companies often released guidance for the year ahead.

The automaker included only the following paragraph for guidance:

Our company is currently between two major growth waves: the first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and the next one we believe will be initiated by the global expansion of the next-generation vehicle platform. In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next generation vehicle at Gigafactory Texas.

To be fair, Tesla has previously warned institutional investors of this situation.

We reported on Martin Viecha, Tesla’s head of investor relations, saying that Tesla “is now in an intermediate low-growth period” at an investor conference.

Now, Tesla is a bit clearer in noting that it will likely see a “notably lower” growth rate than in 2023.

In 2023, Tesla’s vehicle deliveries grew 38% year-over-year.

On the other hand, Tesla is guiding better performance for its energy storage business:

In 2024, the growth rate of deployments and revenue in our Energy Storage business should outpace the Automotive business.

Tesla’s energy storage business grew an astonishing 125% in 2023.

Electrek’s Take

I think that was to be expected. Tesla’s current vehicle programs are starting to achieve their peaks, and Cybertruck can’t be ramped to a level that would make a significant difference in 2024.

Personally, I think a 20% growth in deliveries in 2024 would be a major win for Tesla, but it will likely be lower than that, in my opinion.

What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.