NHL playoff watch: How the Islanders get into the playoffs

On Jan. 20, the New York Islanders were two points out of a wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. That was the day the club announced that it had fired head coach Lane Lambert, and hired Patrick Roy as his replacement.

Heading into Sunday’s matchup against the Anaheim Ducks (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), the Isles are two points out of a wild-card spot, despite markedly better play under the guidance of the Hall of Fame goaltender. In fact, they’ve gone 6-2-2 in their past 10 games, and carry a five-game winning streak into Orange County.

How likely is it that they qualify for the playoffs this season?

The Isles have a 61.8% chance of making it, per Stathletes, which is considerably better than that of the Detroit Red Wings (36.3%), the team they are chasing. Part of that is due to their upcoming schedule: after Sunday’s matchup against the lottery-bound Ducks, they’ll have 19 games left. Of those 19, just 10 are against teams currently in playoff position. They’ll also have a chance to play the Red Wings and Tampa Bay Lightning (the other wild card) once more apiece, with those games holding the famous “four-point swing” potential.

And there will be some extra juice in three of those upcoming games against playoff teams, as those are the remaining dates against the rival New York Rangers (March 17, April 9 and April 13).

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC2 Tampa Bay Lightning
A2 Boston Bruins vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC1 Detroit Red Wings
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
C2 Winnipeg Jets vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

Sunday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins, 1 p.m. (TNT)
Nashville Predators at Minnesota Wild, 3:30 p.m. (TNT)
Calgary Flames at Carolina Hurricanes, 5 p.m.
Arizona Coyotes at Chicago Blackhawks, 6 p.m. (NHLN)
New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks, 8 p.m.

Saturday’s scoreboard

Buffalo Sabres 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New Jersey Devils 2
Nashville Predators 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Boston Bruins 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Florida Panthers 5, Calgary Flames 1
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Montreal Canadiens 2
Tampa Bay Lightning 7, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Washington Capitals 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1
San Jose Sharks 2, Ottawa Senators 1
New York Rangers 4, St. Louis Blues 0
Vancouver Canucks 5, Winnipeg Jets 0
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Detroit Red Wings 3
Dallas Stars 4, Los Angeles Kings 1

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 116
Next game: @ DAL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. STL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 77.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 36.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 1.5%
Tragic number: 27

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 71
Next game: vs. PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22

Metropolitan Division

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 19
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. NYR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 107
Next game: vs. CGY (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 74.2%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 93
Next game: @ ANA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 61.8%
Tragic number: 38

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 91
Next game: @ WPG (Monday)
Playoff chances: 32.8%
Tragic number: 37

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 85
Next game: @ NYR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 13.3%
Tragic number: 30

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 85
Next game: @ OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 3.1%
Tragic number: 32

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 69
Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 18

Central Division

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. WSH (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 107
Next game: @ CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 97
Next game: @ MIN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 77.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ BOS (Monday)
Playoff chances: 2.1%
Tragic number: 28

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 86
Next game: vs. NSH (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 12.2%
Tragic number: 28

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 73
Next game: @ CHI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 18

Points: 37
Regulation wins: 11
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 47
Next game: vs. ARI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Pacific Division

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. COL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 20
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ PIT (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 19
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. NYI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 93.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 96
Next game: @ SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 76.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 87
Next game: @ CAR (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 24.1%
Tragic number: 30

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 14.3%
Tragic number: 30

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 64
Next game: vs. NYI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 12

Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 51
Next game: @ PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 2

P — Clinched Presidents’ Trophy; Y — Clinched division; X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.

Points: 37
Regulation wins: 11

Points: 39
Regulation wins: 12

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 20

* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.