NHL playoff watch: Must-win game for the Red Wings?

Of the three Atlantic Division teams that were supposed to make the leap into serious playoff contention this season — the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators — only the Wings realistically remain in the race as the month of April begins.

But with a 3-5-2 record in their past 10 games, their playoff chances are dwindling.

Heading into Monday night’s matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning (7 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), the Red Wings are two points and three regulation wins behind the Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers (two clubs that are also duking it out for the No. 3 spot in the Metro Division).

The good news for Detroit is that Philly has hit a bit of a skid itself, with a 3-5-2 record in its past 10 games as well; in addition, Detroit has a game in hand. Of course, having the extra game doesn’t matter if it doesn’t turn into a win. Three of the Wings’ final seven games beyond Monday are against teams in playoff position (including one against the Capitals). After their Monday game against the New York Islanders (7 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), the Flyers play two of their final six against teams in playoff position.

What about the Capitals? They have a game in hand on Detroit (and two on Philly). They’ll take on the Sabres on Tuesday, then play four of their final eight contests against current playoff teams.

Detroit won its first two games against Tampa Bay this season. A third W on Monday night would be a big boost to the Red Wings’ chances of getting back in playoff position.

As we traverse the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Monday’s schedule
Sunday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
A2 Florida Panthers vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC2 Philadelphia Flyers
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Washington Capitals

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC2 Los Angeles Kings
C2 Colorado Avalanche vs. C3 Winnipeg Jets
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Vegas Golden Knights

Monday’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7 p.m.
Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7 p.m.
Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers, 7 p.m.
New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers, 7 p.m.
Colorado Avalanche at Columbus Blue Jackets, 7 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues, 9 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
Los Angeles Kings at Winnipeg Jets, 9 p.m.
Seattle Kraken at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m.

Sunday’s scoreboard

Vancouver Canucks 3, Anaheim Ducks 2

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 101
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 7
Points pace: 110
Next game: @ NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 99
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 110
Next game: @ TOR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 93
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 9
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. FLA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 100
Next game: vs. DET (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 89
Next game: @ TB (Monday)
Playoff chances: 22.8%
Tragic number: 14

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.8%
Tragic number: 7

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 79
Next game: @ MIN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 6

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 76
Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 4

Metropolitan Division

Points: 104
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 115
Next game: vs. PIT (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 101
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 7
Points pace: 110
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 9
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 59.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 7
Points pace: 890
Next game: vs. NYI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 80.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 87
Next game: @ PHI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 27.2%
Tragic number: 13

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 84
Next game: vs. PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 6.4%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 84
Next game: @ NYR (Monday)
Playoff chances: 2.5%
Tragic number: 11

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 67
Next game: vs. COL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Central Division

Points: 103
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 7
Points pace: 113
Next game: vs. EDM (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ CBJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 8
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. LA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 100
Next game: vs. BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.2%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 91
Next game: vs. EDM (Monday)
Playoff chances: 5.1%
Tragic number: 11

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 89
Next game: vs. OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 2.1%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. VAN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 54
Next game: @ NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Pacific Division

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 107
Next game: @ STL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 8
Points pace: 100
Next game: vs. VAN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 95.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 98
Next game: @ WPG (Monday)
Playoff chances: 98.1%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 4

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 82
Next game: @ SJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 4

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 57
Next game: @ CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 42
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 47
Next game: vs. SEA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

p — clinched Presidents’ Trophy
y — clinched division
x — clinched playoff berth
e — eliminated from playoff contention

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Macklin Celebrini, a freshman at Boston University.

Points: 42
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 31

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 29

* The Penguins’ first-round pick was traded to the Sharks as part of the Erik Karlsson trade. However, it is top-10 protected.