The 39-year-old, who now runs a minority administration in Edinburgh, sacked the Greens on Thursday and they have joined the opposition in confirming they will vote to oust him.
Talks had been planned with the Alba party, which is led by now-bitter rival Alex Salmond. Its only MSP, Ash Regan – who defected from the SNP last October – was set to cast the deciding vote and determine Mr Yousaf’s future.
The pair had been due to meet this week, with Ms Regan bringing a set of demands as her price of agreement.
But, some senior figures within the SNP had said publicly and privately that would be an electoral disaster and seriously harm the nationalist cause.
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One MP said it would go down like a “cup of cold sick”.
Mr Yousaf is facing a no-confidence vote on his leadership of Scotland, and a separate motion of no confidence in the entire Scottish government has also been tabled.
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Sky News understands Mr Yousaf could now walk on Monday ahead of the vote. However, no final decision has been made.
His tune appears to have changed after he insisted during a walkabout in Fife on Saturday he had no intention of resigning.
Former deputy first minister John Swinney told Sky News the first minister will be speaking publicly on Monday.
“There’s a lot to happen today, and we’ll wait to hear what the first minister’s got to say later on today,” he said without commenting on whether Mr Yousaf will be resigning or not.
A source told Sky News on Monday morning the first minister said Mr Salmond pulling the strings behind the scenes would be “doing a deal with the devil”.
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Alba ‘prepared to assist’ Yousaf
The Alba Party’s Westminster leader, MP Neale Hanvey, told Sky News he thinks Mr Yousaf’s “hand is being forced from within the SNP“.
“It seems that the internal manoeuvrings within the SNP have made it impossible for the first minister to continue,” he said.
“I don’t think he would be even considering resigning if he had the support of his parliamentary group and I think reading between the lines, that’s not something that he can depend on now and that’s possibly why he’s been forced to seriously consider resigning.“
Humza Yousaf’s choices are rapidly evaporating
This could be it. This could be the moment it all comes crashing down for Humza Yousaf despite repeatedly telling Sky News at the weekend he wasn’t going anywhere.
The reality is his choices are evaporating.
I had an early morning call with a senior source close to the first minister and they said resignation is now on the table as early as today.
That is a dramatic change in his position after figures were absolutely rejecting any suggestion of walking away on Friday.
“He is coming out fighting,” one told me.
The writing has been on the wall though as Alba Party boss Alex Salmond gleefully went on the Sunday TV rounds.
Let’s remember the SNP has a long-running bitter feud with its former leader. Salmond and Yousaf do not speak.
There are questions about whether Salmond has overplayed his hand.
Publicly, the first minister is inviting the Alba’s only MSP Ash Regan for talks to win their support in the looming confidence votes. She has a list of demands.
Privately, this morning a source said: “It is unlikely to happen. It is like doing a deal with the devil.”
The other option could be to stare Alba down when it comes to the crunch vote. Call their bluff and let Alba be a pro-independence party which takes down an independence-led government.
There is serious game playing going on.
But those close to the first minister are talking about calling it quits today.
This could be a major day for UK politics.
In Westminster, Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride told Sky News: “It does seem an extraordinary mess that he’s managed to get him and the SNP into. That they are now potentially going to be beholden to Alba.
“If you look at the SNP’s record, their obsession with independence, I’m afraid, has led to very poor outcomes when it comes to health, when it comes to education and a number of other areas.“
Senior Labour MP Ellie Reeves told Sky News there should be an election in Scotland amid the “chaos in the SNP”.
The SNP had been in a power-sharing agreement with the Greens since 2021 which gave the SNP a majority at Holyrood, as without it the party – then led by Nicola Sturgeon – would have had to operate as a minority administration.
But there had been mounting tensions between the two parties, which ended when the government decided to ditch its flagship target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 75% by 2030 after accepting it is now “out of reach”.
Thursday 18 April: The Scottish government ditches its flagship target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 75% by 2030 after accepting that it is now “out of reach”. Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie says he is “angry and disappointed”. Earlier in the day, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHSGGC) and NHS Lothian announced both health boards would be pausing the prescription of puberty blockers to young people in response to the Cass Review. The review – published earlier this month – highlighted a lack of evidence for some treatments of transgender young people and decried the “toxic” debate around the issue. The Rainbow Greens, the party’s LGBT wing, branded the pausing of puberty blockers a “betrayal” of trans youngsters and launched a petition on the future of the Bute House Agreement.
Friday 19 April: The Scottish Greens confirm an extraordinary general meeting (EGM) will be held in the coming weeks to discuss the Bute House Agreement.
Tuesday 23 April: The Alba Party announces its Holyrood leader Ash Regan intends to submit a motion of no confidence in Mr Harvie following his failure to accept the findings of the Cass Review. When asked five times if he accepted the report in an interview the day before, Mr Harvie refused to say, instead claiming it had been “politicised and weaponised” against trans people. Mr Harvie dismisses the motion as “sordid political game-playing”. He also confirms he would quit as Scottish Greens co-leader if party members vote to leave the Bute House Agreement, arguing leaving the powersharing deal with the SNP would be a “mistake”.
Thursday 25 April: First Minister Humza Yousaf announces he is terminating the Bute House Agreement with immediate effect. Scottish Greens co-leader Lorna Slater accuses the SNP of “political cowardice”. The Scottish Conservatives announce they intend to lodge a vote of no confidence in the first minister. The Scottish Greens confirm they will support the motion. If it passes, Mr Yousaf would not be legally bound to resign but he would be under massive pressure to quit.
Friday 26 April: Scottish Labour announce they intend to lodge a vote of no confidence in the Scottish government. If it passes, Mr Yousaf would be legally bound to resign as first minister. Speaking to Sky News, Mr Yousaf says he intends to fight the vote of no confidence.
Saturday 27 April: Mr Yousaf tells Sky News he has written to all of the opposition parties, urging them to rethink their plot to oust him. He admits he cannot rule out a Scottish election if he fails to win the vote.
Sunday 28 April: It is reported that Mr Yousaf will refuse to enter an electoral pact with Alex Salmond’s Alba Party in an effort to win Ms Regan’s support in the Scottish parliament. Mr Salmond distances himself from reports that the SNP would have been asked to step aside in some Scottish seats, with the former first minister saying he would be “prepared to assist” Mr Yousaf “as long as independence is restored as the key priority of the Scottish government”.
Monday 29 April: A senior source confirms Mr Yousaf could “call it quits” on Monday ahead of the vote of no confidence expected later this week.