Elon Musk claims Tesla’s next Full Self-Driving update drives ‘5 to 10x more miles per intervention’

Elon Musk claims that Tesla’s next “Supervised Full Self-Driving” (FSD) software update will result in a “5 to 10x improvement in miles per intervention.”

It would be a game changer if true.

Last week, Musk discussed Tesla’s plan for the next few FSD updates. Those updates are highly hyped due to retrained neural nets, now that the entire system is neural nets end-to-end and Tesla is no longer constrained by training compute power.

The first of those updates coming is v12.4, which Musk said is coming as soon this week at the time.

Now, the CEO says that it is coming in “limited external beta” next week and he claims a “roughly 5 to 10x improvement in miles per intervention”:

12.4 goes to internal release this weekend and limited external beta next week. Roughly 5X to 10X improvement in miles per intervention vs 12.3.

If true, it would be a breakthrough moment in the development of Tesla’s self-driving system.

While Tesla doesn’t release any data for its FSD program, v12.3 was already seen as a great improvement for reducing driver intervention. A 5 to 10x furter improvement would put the system in a whole other level.

Musk also commented on v12.5, which he sees coming in late June:

12.5 will be out in late June. Will also see a major improvement in mpi and is single stack – no more implicit stack on highways.

Interestingly, Musk had previously claimed that v11 was a single stack – merging the code base for highway and city driving.

Electrek’s Take

A 5 to 10x improvement sounds incredible, but I’ll believe it when I see it. First off, 5x to 10x is a massive range. If he can’t pin point more than that, it indicates that his visibility into the level of improvement is not that great.

Secondly, Elon already told us that v11 was single stack, now it’s v12.5? It makes it very hard to trust anything he says about these update.

But regardless of what he says, v12.3 has been impressive, which is getting me somewhat excited for v12.4.