Waymo vs. Tesla — On self-driving, Waymo is playing chess while Tesla plays checkers We’ll know Tesla is serious about robotaxis when it starts hiring remote operators.
Timothy B. Lee – May 22, 2024 11:00 am UTC Enlarge / A Waymo autonomous taxi in San Francisco.David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images reader comments 365
Tesla fansand CEO Elon Musk himselfare excited about the prospects for Teslas Full Self Driving (FSD) software. Tesla released a major upgradeversion 12.3of the software in March. Then, last month, Musk announced that Tesla would unveil a purpose-built robotaxi on August 8. Last week, Musk announced that a new version of FSD12.4will come out in the coming days and will have a 5X to 10X improvement in miles per intervention.
But I think fans expecting Tesla to launch a driverless taxi service in the near future will be disappointed.
During a late March trip to San Francisco, I had a chance to try the latest self-driving technology from both Tesla and Googles Waymo.
During a 45-minute test drive in a Tesla Model X, I had to intervene twice to correct mistakes by the FSD software. In contrast, I rode in driverless Waymo vehicles for more than two hours and didnt notice a single mistake.
So while Teslas FSD version 12.3 seems like a significant improvement over previous versions of FSD, it still lags behind Waymos technology.
However, Waymos impressive performance comes with an asterisk. While no one was behind the wheel during my rides, Waymo has remote operators that sometimes provide guidance to its vehicles (Waymo declined to tell me whetheror how oftenremote operators intervened during my rides). And while Teslas FSD works on all road types, Waymos taxis avoid freeways.
Many Tesla fans see these limitations as signs that Waymo is headed for a technological dead end. They see Teslas FSD, with its capacity to operate in all cities and on all road types, as a more general technology that will soon surpass Waymo. Advertisement
But this fundamentally misunderstands the situation.
Safely operating driverless vehicles on public roads ishard. With no one in the drivers seat, a single mistake can be deadlyespecially at freeway speeds. So Waymo launched its driverless service in 2020 in the easiest environment it could findresidential streets in the Phoenix suburbsand has been gradually ratcheting up the difficulty level as it gains confidence in its technology.
In contrast, Tesla hasnt started driverless testing because its software isnt ready. For now, geographic restrictions and remote assistance arent needed because theres always a human being behind the wheel. But I predict that when Tesla begins its driverless transition, it will realize that safety requires a Waymo-style incremental rollout.
So Tesla hasnt found a different, better way to bring driverless technology to market. Waymo is just so far ahead that its dealing with challenges Tesla hasnt even started thinking about. Waymo is playing chess while Tesla is still playing checkers. Tesla is several years behind Waymo
The current excitement around Teslas FSD reminds me of the hype that surrounded Waymo in 2018. Early that year, Waymo announced deals to purchase20,000 I-Pace sedansfrom Jaguar and62,000 Pacifica minivansfrom Fiat Chrysler.
But the service Waymolaunched in December 2018 was a disappointment. There were still safety drivers behind the wheel on most rides, and access was limited to a handpicked group of passengers.
It wasnt until October 2020 that Waymo finallylaunched a fully driverless taxi servicein the Phoenix area that was open to the general public. And even after that, Waymo expanded slowly.
Waymo began offering commercial service in San Francisco in 2023 and is now expanding to Los Angeles and Austin. Today, the company has only a few hundred vehicles in its commercial fleetfar fewer than the 82,000 vehicles it was planning to purchase six years ago.
What went wrong? In anAugust 2018 article, journalist Amir Efrati reported on the limitations of Waymos technology. Efrati wrote that Waymo vans have trouble with many unprotected left turns and with merging into heavy traffic in the Phoenix area. In addition, the cars have trouble separating people, or cyclists, who are in groups, especially people near shopping centers or in parking lots. Page: 1 2 3 4 5 Next → reader comments 365 Timothy B. Lee Timothy is a senior reporter covering tech policy and the future of transportation. He lives in Washington DC. Advertisement Channel Ars Technica ← Previous story Next story → Related Stories Today on Ars
