Conference USA preview: Can Western Kentucky knock off Liberty? What will Jacksonville State do?

Let’s review.

In 1996, Conference USA began sponsoring football with a lineup of Cincinnati, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, Southern Miss and Tulane. It added East Carolina in 1997, then Army in 1998 and UAB in 1999. TCU, bailing on the WAC, joined in 2001. USF, which had been a non-football member, joined for football in 2003.

In 2005 came the first of three total regeneration efforts. Cincinnati, Louisville and USF left for the Big East, Army went back to being independent, and TCU bailed for the Mountain West; so aboard came Marshall, Rice, SMU, Tulsa, UCF and UTEP. The center actually held for a moment, but realignment never really stops for long. Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF left for what would become the AAC in 2013, then ECU, Tulane and Tulsa followed in 2014.

It was time to reload once more: CUSA raided the Sun Belt for FAU, FIU, MTSU, North Texas and Western Kentucky. It took Louisiana Tech and UTSA from the WAC and brought in football startups ODU in 2014 and Charlotte in 2015. That brought membership to 14. UAB dropped football in 2015 in a nasty political game, then wised up and brought it back in 2017. Fourteen again.

That held until the next time the AAC got raided. It nabbed Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA in 2023. Searching for some semblance of stability (and geographic sense), Marshall, Old Dominion and Old Dominion also left for the Sun Belt. Regeneration No. 3! Indies Liberty and New Mexico State came aboard, and Jacksonville State and Sam Houston made the jump up from FCS. Kennesaw State is joining this year. Delaware and Missouri State will do the same in 2025.

Next year, FBS will feature 136 teams. Conference USA will have, at one point or another, housed 32 of them. It is the Ellis Island of FBS. Poor, tired, huddled masses, et cetera. It is a genuine conference for the USA.

It might not have much of a conference race in 2024, however. Liberty was far and away the class of the conference last year, winning seven of nine CUSA games by at least 13 points and rolling to a 49-35 win over NMSU in each team’s first CUSA Championship. The Flames were able to go unbeaten and skate around having a dreadful run defense, but that caught up to them in a 45-6 decimation at Oregon’s hands in the Fiesta Bowl. They had one of the weakest schedules in the country and one of the most delightful offenses … just as they probably will this year. And unless Western Kentucky or Jacksonville State springs a surprise, it’s hard to see someone toppling LU this time around either.

Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 134 FBS teams. The previews will include 2023 breakdowns, 2024 previews and team-by-team capsules. Here is the MAC preview.

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2023 recap

CUSA might have only gotten four teams into bowls, and two of them (Liberty and NMSU) may have lost by a combined 82-16, but the other two bowls, both wins, were delightful. Thanks to a lack of bowl-eligible teams, Jacksonville State was able to score a bid to the New Orleans Bowl in its first FBS season, and the Gamecocks beat Louisiana in overtime.

Two days later, in the Famous Toastery Bowl in Charlotte, WKU, playing without starting quarterback Austin Reed, spotted Old Dominion a 28-0 lead just 17 minutes into the game before Caden Veltkamp hopped out of the transfer portal, threw five touchdown passes and led a shocking comeback.

This is what a 28-point, “don’t lead for a single play until you kick the game-winning field goal in overtime” comeback looks like on the ol’ win probability charts.

Veltkamp was ready to leave after he was told he would be moving to tight end. He decided to stick around after all.

It was a struggle for everyone else. Mike MacIntyre continued a rebuild at FIU, Sonny Cumbie kept looking for traction at Louisiana Tech, Sam Houston misplaced its offense in the move from FCS before winning three of four to end the year, and both Middle Tennessee and UTEP moved on from Rick Stockstill and Dana Dimel, respectively, after disappointing finishes.