U.S. crude oil falls more than 1% as Gaza cease-fire talks, global demand weigh on market

U.S. crude oil futures fell more than 1% on Friday amid reports that Qatar told Iran to not attack Israel while Gaza cease-fire talks are ongoing.

Qatar’s prime minister told Iran’s leaders in a phone call after the first day of Gaza cease-fire talks in Doha Thursday that they should de-escalate, warning of the consequences of attacking Israel when progress is being made in the negotiations, two diplomats told The Washington Post.

The U.S. benchmark ended the week slightly down, 0.25%, while Brent marginally gained 0.03%.

Here are Friday’s closing energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate September contract: $76.65 per barrel, down $1.51, or 1.93%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained 6.98%.
• Brent September contract: $79.68 per barrel, down $1.36, or 1.68%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead 3.43%.
• RBOB Gasoline September contract: $2.31 per gallon, down more than 4 cents, or 2.03%. Year to date, gasoline is up 9.87%.
• Natural Gas September contract: $2.12 per thousand cubic feet, down 7 cents, or 3.37%. Year to date, gas is down 15.5%.

The cease-fire talks were paused Friday, with negotiations expected to resume next week. Hamas did not participate in the talks, but was briefed by mediators. A senior official with the militant group told Reuters that Israel “did not abide by what was agreed upon” in earlier round of negotiations.

Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, said the risk premium appears to be “seeping out of energy markets once again, suggesting traders are curiously disregarding the risk of geopolitical aggressions ahead of the weekend.”

The U.S. benchmark jumped more than 4% on Monday on fears that an attack by Iran on Israel was drawing closer. Iran has vowed to retaliate over the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran in late July.

Prices have subsequently pulled back as an assault has not yet materialized. Worries about softening oil demand in China have also weighed on the market, with OPEC lowering its forecast for 2024.

Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with the Price Futures Group, said the market appears to be “buying into the thought that global demand growth might not be as strong as some people had originally thought.”

“The pendulum of price influence keeps swinging between fundamentals and geopolitics, with today’s selloff seemingly dictated by negotiations in the Middle East and an ongoing lack of retaliation by Iran,” said Matt Smith, lead oil analyst for the Americas at Kpler.