Taking a step back? Projecting the NHL’s top regression candidates for 2024-25

The NHL preseason is underway, and many teams have new faces. Last season saw astounding performances from quite a few players. A 69-goal performance from Auston Matthews, two players (Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov) reaching the 100-assist mark, 17 forwards hitting the 40-goal mark and five defensemen scoring at greater than a point-per-game pace. It is hardly bold to say we are unlikely to have a season like that in 2024-25.

Candidates for regression include those most likely to see a 10% drop in production (or more), be it goals or points, based on their situations according to my projections model. The biggest regression factor is shooting percentage; many players featured on this list shot well over their expected paces. While a few may not regress to their career average, it is likely they will regress towards their true talent and therefore, a dip in goal production would be expected.

Other factors include players expected to be in different situations, team environment and a change in expected matchups. Most of the players on the list have multiple factors contributing to their regression, and are certainly not the only players likely to experience a meaningful performance regression.

Here are a handful of the most high-profile regression candidates for 2024-25: