Tesla (TSLA) predicts a record Q4, stock jumps 8%

With the release of its financial results for Q3 2024, Tesla (TSLA) is predicting a record fourth quarter – a rare prediction for the automaker.

Tesla missed revenue expectations by about $300 million last quarter, but it did beat earnings per share by $0.12 with an EPS of $0.72 – thanks to higher-than-expected margins last quarter.

However, this isn’t likely why the stock jumped 8% in aftermarket trading.

That’s because those higher-than-expected profits are mainly due to Tesla having sold $739 million in regulatory credits and recognizing more “Full Self-Driving revenue”, which is controversial because Tesla has yet to deliver on self-driving, but it keeps recognizing more revenue as it pushes new software updates that it deems improvements toward that goal.

The real reason for the jump in the stock price is that Tesla actually released guidance for Q4, which is rare.

Tesla notoriously posts the most vague guidance for future performance, but the automaker has now more clearly predicted deliveries for Q4:

Despite ongoing macroeconomic conditions, we expect to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024.

Considering we know how many vehicles deployed last year and how many it did so far this, we know exactly how many vehicles it needs to deliver in Q4 to still manage to achieve growth in 2024.

That’s Tesla 515,000 vehicles.

It’s just a 6% increase in deliveries year-over-year, but it would be a more significant 11% increase quarter-to-quarter and something not many people were predicting – hence why the stock is likely up by that much.

We reported earlier this week that Tesla is already digging deep into discounts to boost sales early in the quarter rather than waiting until the end of the quarter as it usually does.