Freeman’s dominance, Judge’s struggles and Ohtani’s status: What we’ve learned about Dodgers, Yankees so far

Two games into the 2024 World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers have taken a 2-0 lead on the New York Yankees.

First the Dodgers took the opener in dramatic fashion, winning an instant classic on Freddie Freeman‘s 10th-inning walk-off grand slam.

Then, in Game 2, the Dodgers rode a strong outing by starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 4-2 victory — though concerns surrounded superstar Shohei Ohtani after he exited in the seventh inning with an apparent shoulder injury. However, Ohtani will be playing in Game 3, manager Dave Roberts told ESPN.

As both teams make their way to New York for Game 3 at Yankee Stadium on Monday night, our MLB experts break down what we’ve seen — and where this World Series will go from here.

What has surprised you most so far in this World Series?

Jorge Castillo: Aaron Judge‘s struggles. Judge wasn’t the out-of-this-world MVP version of himself in the ALDS or ALCS, but he still worked his walks and hit that crucial game-tying home run against Emmanuel Clase in Game 3 in Cleveland. The logic here was that Judge, who did the best peak Barry Bonds impersonation we’ve seen during the regular season, would eventually snap out of his October funk and fuel the Yankees’ offense. Instead, he’s been worse this series. Judge has gone 1-for-9 with six strikeouts in the first two games. He has whiffed on 32 of his 59 swings over the past five games.

Alden Gonzalez: The strength of the Dodgers’ starting pitching. Jack Flaherty got into the sixth inning in Game 1 and gave up only a two-run homer to Giancarlo Stanton. Yoshinobu Yamamoto recorded 19 outs in Game 2 and allowed just one hit — a solo home run to Juan Soto. Starting pitching was supposed to be the Yankees’ strength; the Dodgers would attempt to overcome it with a deep bullpen and an even deeper lineup. And though Gerrit Cole pitched very much like an ace in Game 1, Carlos Rodon struggled mightily for the Yankees on Saturday. Stealing both those games, particularly the way they did, is a boon for the Dodgers, who have Flaherty and Yamamoto lined up to pitch again if this series extends.

Jesse Rogers: Without a doubt, it was Aaron Boone’s decision to bring in Nestor Cortes when he did in Game 1. Clean inning? Maybe. Dirty inning, tied in the 10th? No way. That game was so critical for the Yankees because they mostly held the Dodgers off the scoreboard until Freeman’s historic home run. There have been only a few times this postseason that L.A. hasn’t been running on all cylinders at the plate, so sneaking away with a victory would have been a huge boost for New York. In Game 2, the Dodgers went back to what they usually do: coming at teams in waves of offense. Cortes should have been Boone’s third option behind Tim Hill and Mark Leiter Jr. with a chance to take the series opener. Instead, it was his first, and it cost him.

How will this series change when it gets to New York?

Castillo: For one, it’ll be colder in the Bronx. The Yankees, on paper, also will have a clear pitching advantage in Game 4 with Luis Gil starting opposite a bullpen game for the Dodgers. Winning a World Series with a scheduled bullpen game is a tall task, but that’s where the Dodgers are with their pitching staff. It’s on the Yankees to chase Walker Buehler early in Game 3 and expose the Dodgers’ bullpen before unleashing a line of relievers the next night.

Gonzalez: That will depend on how Game 3 goes. On Monday night, the Yankees will confront Buehler, who has had a hard time generating swing-and-miss since coming back from his second Tommy John surgery but also has a reputation for stepping up in big games. If the Yankees can get to Buehler early, they might force Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to use some of his high-leverage relievers, which will limit his options in Game 4. In other words: The Yankees have a chance to set themselves up to tie this series within the first few innings Monday night.

Rogers: Rabid crowd, colder temps and pitching question marks for the visitors should shift some momentum the Yankees’ way. It’ll be critical to get as many Dodgers relievers into each game as possible, especially considering the teams play three straight days. New York has an uphill battle, but not an impossible one. The only problem is the short porch in right will benefit the Dodgers as much as it has the Yankees all season, so someone is going to have to keep L.A. in the park — or the Yankees are simply going to have to outscore the Dodgers.

How will the Dodgers need to adjust if Ohtani is not at his best?

Castillo: Ohtani is irreplaceable atop the lineup, but the Dodgers won 100 games last year without him — they can win two of the next five if they need to. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, two future Hall of Famers, are still around. Max Muncy and Kiké Hernández, an October monster, will continue bouncing around the diamond. Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman, two significant contributors enjoying stellar playoff performances, are shining in their first postseason in Los Angeles. While Ohtani is slated to play in Game 3, if he were to miss any time, it would ignite a series of lineup changes that could include Freeman, who has been battling a sprained ankle since the end of the regular season, moving to designated hitter. It’ll remove a power source and a base-stealing element to the Dodgers’ offense. But the Dodgers have more than enough firepower to survive.

Gonzalez: Freeman, hobbled all month, would probably get the start at DH. That would move Muncy to first base, Hernandez to third and Tommy Edman to center field against a right-hander. The Dodgers would also put Betts in the leadoff spot. Their lineup would still be pretty good. But they would be without both their best power hitter and their best base-stealer at the top of the lineup. And though they have shown all year that they can overcome injuries — to Betts, Muncy and Freeman in particular — this would be an entirely different level.

Rogers: The sudden emergence of a postseason starting staff for L.A. helps take some pressure off the offense — plus, the Dodgers did win Games 1 and 2 with little help from Ohtani at the plate. Muncy might be the key to their offense if Ohtani is not at his best. The Dodgers have won without Betts and Freeman, so they should be OK regardless. Having said that, if the series is more high-scoring in hitter-friendly Yankees Stadium, the Dodgers certainly will need Ohtani’s firepower.

What is the biggest adjustment the Yankees need to make?

Castillo: Get back to grinding pitchers down. The Dodgers have three starting pitchers. They’re expected to cover Game 4 with only relievers. If the Yankees force high pitch counts, they should eventually tax the Dodgers’ bullpen and increase their chances of putting up crooked numbers. They were on track for that in Game 1 after making Jack Flaherty throw 40 pitches over the first two innings. But he threw just 20 over the next two innings, which allowed him to get through 5⅓ innings. Yoshinobu Yamamoto needed just 86 pitches to hold the Yankees to one run over 6⅓ innings in Game 2. Walker Buehler will take the ball in Game 3 for Los Angeles after throwing 90 pitches in four scoreless innings in his last start. Chasing him early and placing a heavy burden on the Dodgers’ relief corps, with a bullpen game the next day, could change the series.

Gonzalez: Simply put: Make more contact. The Yankees thrived on luring pitchers into the strike zone and doing damage this season. Through the first two games of this series, they’ve done a nice job not chasing but are simply swinging and missing way too often. Judge, of course, has been the biggest culprit, but the Yankees as a whole have a swing-and-miss rate of 35.4%, way up from their regular-season total of 23.8%. Yes, of course, hitting is far more difficult this time of year. But the Dodgers are whiffing basically half as often as the Yankees right now.

Rogers: Um, get the MVP hitting like an MVP again? The Yankees simply can’t afford any of their stars to slump the way Judge is right now. Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton leading the way won’t be enough without something from the captain. Judge looks like a guy putting way too much pressure on himself. Perhaps going home will get him and his team to relax. In fact, the Game 1 pitching debacle might have impacted them in Game 2, so a day off and a change of scenery might be what the Yankees need.

Freddie Freeman is the easy choice for World Series MVP so far — will he win the award?

Castillo: My answer here is no just because I still don’t expect a quick series. The more games, the more opportunities for someone else to claim the award. Freeman has been superb so far, but remember, he’s playing on a sprained ankle. Continuing the production will be a challenge. If he does, he’ll be the clear winner — especially if Ohtani misses significant time.

Gonzalez: I would guess no, simply because playing three consecutive games in the frigid temperatures of New York might be an issue — as we witnessed in the National League Championship Series, when Freeman struggled while playing at Citi Field — and because this series might still possess enough twists and turns to create distance from his iconic moment in Game 1. Freeman is certainly capable of continuing to produce and taking home the MVP trophy, which would be storybook, but I’d still take the field at this point.

Rogers: Yes. Hitting triples, walk-off grand slams and, ya know, other home runs, is going to get him the honor. He’s moving well, so that there’s no major concern about his ankle, so he’s going to continue to get chances to tee off against right-handed pitching and some suspect lefties in the Yankees pen. See Nestor Cortes for evidence. It’s kind of a cliché to say, but it might apply here: New York has no answer for Freddie Freeman.

Would you like to revise your original pick for this Series based on what we’ve seen?

Castillo: Yep. I picked the Yankees in seven, and while I believe that is still very possible, I’m going to switch it over to Dodgers in seven. The Yankees squandering two leads in Game 1 makes it feel like they now must win five games to win the series. That was a gut punch. They could still recover, but the Dodgers are too good not to capitalize on that lead.

Gonzalez: I picked the Dodgers to win in six and would stick with that. Ohtani’s shoulder injury is certainly concerning, but watching the way Flaherty and Yamamoto pitched and watching how off Judge seems gives me no reason to think the Dodgers — already up 2-0 — won’t take the series. They even have some really cool symmetry on their side thanks to the Freeman-Kirk Gibson comps: Gibson’s walk-off homer in Game 1 of the World Series was part of the last time the Dodgers won a full-season championship in 1988. You can’t write this stuff.

Rogers: Yes. My prediction of Yankees in seven could still materialize, but the Dodgers’ offense is just too much. Maybe there’s a game where New York scores double digits because L.A.’s bullpen implodes, but losing Game 1 was such a killer, I don’t think they recover. They say a series really doesn’t begin until a team wins on the road. L.A. will do that at least once in New York, setting themselves up for a World Series title.