Hezbollah’s new leader Naim Kassem may adopt a more cautious approach, as Israel warns he won’t last long

Hamas has hailed Naim Kassem’s appointment as Hezbollah’s new leader as proof of the group’s recovery.

In reality, though, it’s a reflection of their lack of options. Kassem is pretty much the only senior figure left.

Having helped establish Hezbollah in the early 1980s, the 71-year-old rose to the role of deputy chief in 1991, becoming one of the group’s most important clerics, who guided its religious and ideological direction.

But he was always seen as the perennial ‘number two’. An effective operator in a supportive role, but not the inspirational figurehead to lead the fight against Israel.

He’s seen by many in Lebanon as lacking charisma and personality. He’s not the father figure his predecessor, Hassan Nasrallah, was to some. Nor the inspirational orator.

But now Kassem has been thrust into the top job by force of circumstance.

Who was Hassan Nasrallah?

After Nasrallah’s assassination in Beirut at the end of September, Hashem Safieddine was considered the most likely successor, despite Kassem’s superiority on paper.

But he too was killed by an Israeli airstrike only two weeks later, as the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) sought to decapitate Hezbollah’s leadership.

The hit on Safieddine came after speculation spread that he was next in line.

It seems Hezbollah have been more cautious this time around with Kassem.

He’s believed to have fled Beirut for Tehran earlier this month, reportedly leaving Lebanon onboard the Iranian foreign minister’s plane after he visited the country.

In the last month, Kassem has given three televised addresses. One was a defiant rallying cry in the wake of Nasrallah’s death – pledging to Hezbollah supporters that they would continue to fight.

The second, however, on 8 October was more conciliatory. He said the armed group supported efforts to reach a ceasefire in Lebanon. And perhaps that hints at something – that in the hands of Kassem, Iran’s powerful proxy may adopt a more cautious approach.

Some believe that may be the case, simply because Kassem doesn’t have the swagger to carry a more pugnacious policy.

What’s more, Kassem is already a well-known face.

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Since the start of this conflict with Israel last October, he’s been one of Hezbollah’s leading spokesmen, giving interviews to both regional and foreign media.

He’s not a military commander who operates in the shadows like those Israel has been targeting. Quite the opposite – he’s been front and centre, and that could prove an important distinction.

For now, though, Israel remains wary, warning that if Kassem follows in the footsteps of Nasrallah, his tenure will be “the shortest in [Hezbollah’s] history”.