US election: People’s back pockets are pushing them to the polls in this knife-edge state

“It’s the economy, stupid”. It was back in 1992 when political strategist James Carville coined a phrase that feels to me to be wholly apt again right now.

It was by focusing on the state of the economy that Carville helped Bill Clinton beat George H.W. Bush 22 years ago.

For headscratchers today wondering why a man so divisive and with so much baggage as Donald Trump could be within a whisker of the White House, it may be that the answer, again, is: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

In suburban North Carolina it doesn’t take long to realise just how much people’s back pockets are pushing them to the polling booth.

Kannapolis is America’s suburbia. It’s middle class, leafy and the polls suggest it’s on a knife edge now, just as it was four years ago.

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Back in 2020, Donald Trump won this town’s district by just nine votes. With small gains like this across the state, the former president won North Carolina by a whisker – 1.3%.

You need to go back to Obama in 2008 for the last time the Democrats won this state, then by 14,000 votes. Before that Republicans won here every cycle since 1980.

When Biden was the Democratic Party candidate, the state looked like a lost cause for the Democrats. But replacing him with Kamala Harris flipped the polls. Suddenly it was a state in play. She cut Donald Trump’s sizable lead to neck-and-neck and it remained there.

Shifting demographics, a large African-American community, a growing urban and suburban population all give Democratic Party strategists hope that it’s within reach again. With its sizable 16 electoral college votes, a win here really helps propel either candidate to the 270 needed for victory nationally.

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Cabarrus County is precisely the sort of place that the Republicans need to hold and the Democrats need to swing. I’ve come to the town of Kannapolis.

The train station here, linking it with the metropolis of Charlotte 30 minutes away, is doubling as the polling station and the queue to vote early is an hour long.

All who spoke to us were passionate, thoughtful and reflected the national split that runs down to within families.

But of the issues driving the decisions, one thing dominates almost always: the economy. Inflation is now down, unemployment is down. In many ways the US economy is the envy of the world. But the perception of things and nostalgia for the past runs deep.

On one street in this one town, we spoke to a range of voters in three businesses – a local entrepreneur, a waiter, a restaurant manager, a shop owner and a customer. All three businesses we visited were chosen at random and we’ve included every person we spoke to.

Rylee Mullery, babysitting between jobs

“I would say income taxes and the open border is definitely the biggest issue for me personally. And I feel like it’s just gone downhill since then. So I hope that we can get that fixed by getting the right person in office.

“I went to the store the other day and got a full cart. Usually that costs $150 (£116). It was almost $400 (£309) for a full cart of just regular household needs from toilet paper to laundry detergent, paper towels, things like that. So I hope that that can be solved.

“I’m only 23 years old and it’s nice to know that people my age are finally waking up and seeing what’s actually good for our country.”

William Pasquale, waiter

“Right now everything is just too expensive for even basic needs. For families of four it’s too expensive. They can’t afford groceries right now. Some can’t even afford gas and that’s the way people get around. All these unemployment rates are way higher than they were before and it’s just getting worse and worse.”

Deana Ross, restaurant manager

“In the beginning…. nobody wanted to admit that they were liking him [Trump]… because he is a bit rough around the edges… but he knew what he was doing. And I think this time around, now that we’ve had that four year gap without him and they’ve seen what happened, the scales tipped a little.

Everybody’s like, ‘Oh, maybe he wasn’t that bad’. So I feel like everybody’s changing their mind and their opinion about what kind of a president he is, as opposed to what kind of a person he is.

“The Biden administration really dropped the ball for the country and what’s best for our country. And I feel like Donald Trump might try to improve that like he was trying before.”

Dwayne Jackson, popcorn shop owner

“A lot of people are basing their opinion on gimmicks. So if you’re focusing on the gimmicks and you’re not focusing on what the person’s actually saying, then you’re going to go according to the gimmicks.

“If somebody is running around here with 34 felonies, 34 plus felonies, and they’re still allowed to run for the presidency of the United States, where as if I was to go out here and commit one felony and get convicted of one felony, I could never vote again.

“I don’t like, you know, the name calling because you’re not teaching the children anything. When the kids look at this, we teach our children nothing.”

David Deal, local entrepreneur

“The pledge by both sides to scrap tax on tips is a huge issue for us. It saves us as business owners taxes and their payroll portion. And obviously them not being taxed would be fantastic. That would give them a raise and give us a little breathing room as well. Margins are tighter as inflation is pushed, the typical consumer’s daily expenses are up, even exponentially.

“There’s always advantages to both sides. I consider myself fiscally conservative. I’m a small business owner. How business principles and laws are applied mean a lot to me and whether I’m able to put a roof over my head as a business owner.

“But on the flip side a lot of times those [conservative] politics are aligned with certain groups that are less socially liberal. I consider myself fiscally conservative, socially liberal – people should do what makes them happy. A conundrum? Certainly.”