Treasury launches inquiry into leak of growth forecasts

A leak inquiry will take place following reports that economic growth forecasts have been reduced by the government’s financial watchdog.

Bloomberg reported that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had reduced its growth forecasts in data sent to Chancellor Rachel Reeves last week.

Reduced growth could force the government to cut further spending or increase more taxes.

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The next forecast is set to be published in March – with the process supposed to remain confidential until that point.

The inquiry was confirmed by James Bowler, the most senior civil servant in the Treasury.

He told the House of Commons Treasury Committee: “We will undertake an inquiry, and I’m happy to communicate the outcome of that.”

The government’s attempts to grow the UK economy have proved difficult since the election last year, and businesses have complained about measures introduced in Ms Reeves’s first budget.

Part of Labour’s plan involves increasing house building and development, although these plans were not included in the forecasts for last October’s budget.

Mr Bowler sought to play down the fact that a leak inquiry was happening meant that what was reported by Bloomberg was true.

Asked by committee chair Meg Hillier about the inquiry, the civil servant appeared to indicate about 50 people in the Treasury would have been able to see the forecasts.

He said an investigation into OBR officials would likely also happen, although the body is independent of government.

Downing Street has tried to remain bullish about the economic situation.

A Number 10 spokesperson said: “In recent weeks and months, the [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] and the [International Monetary Fund] have upgraded our growth forecast over the next three years.”

They added: “The government remains relentlessly focused on growth as the only way of sustainably raising living standards and delivering the investment that we need in our public services.”

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Both bodies mentioned slightly increased their growth forecasts, but they still remain below 2%.

Last week, the Bank of England halved its growth expectations for the UK – saying it would only increase by 0.75% in 2025, before increasing to 1.5% for the next two years.

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The OBR’s forecasts have a more direct impact, as the Treasury use them to measure if they are meeting their fiscal rules.

GDP figures are set to be published tomorrow, which will show how the UK economy was performing to the end of 2024.