NASA Lowers Impact Probability of Asteroid 2024 YR4 After New Data

A significant shift has been observed in the potential threat posed by asteroid 2024 YR4. Initially raising concerns due to its size of approximately 55 meters and the potential to release 500 times more energy than the Hiroshima atomic bomb, the asteroid’s impact probability peaked at 3.1 percent before rapidly declining. Currently, NASA estimates the chance of impact in 2032 at just 0.28 percent. The rapid changes in impact probability were expected due to limited data, which continues to be refined through further observations.

Impact Probability and Astronomical Observations

According to the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, developed by Richard Binzel, Professor of Planetary Sciences at MIT, asteroid 2024 YR4 was briefly classified as a Level 3 threat, meaning it could cause localised destruction. As new observations were conducted, the asteroid was downgraded to Level 1, indicating no cause for public concern. Speaking to Live Science, Binzel noted that such fluctuations in risk assessment are part of the scientific process, as additional data allows for greater certainty regarding an asteroid’s trajectory. Clearer conditions in mid-February enabled NASA to improve tracking, contributing to the lowered impact probability.

Potential Consequences and Global Preparedness

If an asteroid of this size were on a collision course, localised devastation or even tsunamis could result, depending on the impact location. While 2024 YR4’s risk has significantly decreased, NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office continues to monitor space objects that could pose future threats. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) remains responsible for coordinating responses to potential impacts, including deflection strategies should an asteroid pose an imminent risk. As detection technology advances, astronomers predict that more potentially hazardous asteroids will be identified, requiring continued tracking and assessment. Binzel told Live Science that improved detection methods mean asteroids previously unnoticed will become part of ongoing evaluations, ensuring that potential threats are addressed long before they pose real danger.