The asteroid once considered the most significant impact risk in recorded history has been reclassified as non-threatening. Newly gathered data has confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 now has no chance of colliding with Earth. The risk, which had previously been estimated at 1 in 32, has been reduced to effectively zero following additional observations conducted on February 23, 2025. This updated assessment has led to its reclassification to Torino Scale Level Zero, indicating no hazard.
Revised Impact Assessment
According to reports, the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), asteroid 2024 YR4 was initially placed at Level 3 on the Torino Scale due to early calculations that suggested a potential collision. This classification, which requires attention from astronomers, was based on an estimated 1% or greater probability of impact.
Richard Binzel, Professor of Planetary Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and creator of the Torino Scale, told Space.com that updated tracking of the asteroid’s orbit reduced its impact probability to 0.00005, or 1 in 20,000, for its 2032 approach. “That’s impact probability zero, folks!” Binzel stated.
Understanding the Shift in Risk
Astronomers have attributed the initial uncertainty to the limitations of early observational data. David Rankin, an asteroid hunter with the Catalina Sky Survey, explained to Space.com that minor tracking inaccuracies can lead to exaggerated impact probabilities in initial assessments. He compared it to shifting a long stick by a fraction of an inch, which results in significant changes at the far end.
With additional tracking, these uncertainties were gradually refined, ultimately ruling out any threat. The asteroid, measuring approximately 50 meters in diameter, will pass within 167,000 miles of Earth in 2032, well outside any risk range. Researchers have emphasized that these findings demonstrate the effectiveness of continued monitoring in eliminating impact concerns.
