Elon Musk claims Tesla will double US production in next two years, let’s do the math

Elon Musk said today that Tesla will double its electric vehicle production in the US in the next two years.

What would that look like? Let’s do the math.

Today, during a press conference to promote Tesla at the White House, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the following:

“As a function of the great policies of President Trump and his administration, and as an act of faith in America, Tesla is going to double vehicle output in the United States within the next two years.”

This raises many questions, as Musk’s phrasing of the statement suggests that Tesla is planning to add previously unannounced production capacity in response to Trump’s policies.

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However, the reality could be different.

What is Tesla’s current production capacity in the US?

We only know Tesla’s installed capacity, which is much different than its actual production rate.

This is Tesla’s latest disclosed global production capacity at the end of 2024:

In the US, it adds up to 1,025,000 vehicles per year.

In reality, Tesla’s factories are operating at a much lower capacity.

Based on sales and inventory from 2024, Tesla is currently building fewer than 50,000 Model S/X vehicles per year compared to an installed capacity of 100,000 units.

As for Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla is currently building them in the US at a rate of about 600,000 units per year compared to claimed installed capacity of over 800,000 units.

Finally, the Cybertruck is being produced at a rate of less than 50,000 units per year compared to an installed capacity of over 125,000 units.

This adds up to Tesla producing 700,000 units per year in the US in 2024.

What will be Tesla’s new capacity?

Considering Musk mentioned that it will happen “within the next two years”, it is unlikely that he is referring to installed capacity.

The CEO is most likely talking about Tesla’s actual production, which would also make sense, especially considering he mentioned “output.”

Tesla currently outputs roughly 700,000 vehicles per year in the US.

Doubling that would mean bringing the total to 1.4 million units per year, which would be an incredible feat, but it’s not entirely a new plan for Tesla.

First off, Tesla has already announced plans to unveil two new, more affordable models this year. These models are going to be built on the same production lines as Model 3/Y, which would potentially enable Tesla to fully utilize its installed capacity for those vehicles.

That’s another 200,000 units already.

As already mentioned in Tesla’s installed capacity table, the company is currently developing its production facility for the Tesla Semi electric truck in Nevada.

Production is expected to start later this year and ramp up next year. Tesla has previously mentioned a goal of 50,000 units per year. It would leave Tesla roughly a year and half to ramp up to this capacity, which is ambitious, but not impossible.

Then there’s the “Cybercab”, which was unveiled last year.

The Cybercab is going to use Tesla’s next-gen vehicle platform and new manufacturing system, which is already being deployed at Gigafactory Texas.

Production is expected to start in 2026, and Musk has mentioned a production capacity of “at least 2 million units per year”. However, he said that this would likely come from more than one factory and it’s unclear if the other factory would be in the US.

Either way, Tesla would need to ramp up Cybercab production in the US to 450,000 units to make Musk’s announcement correct.

It’s fair to note that all of this was part of Tesla’s plans before the US elections, Trump’s coming into power, or the implementation of any policies whatsoever.

Electrek’s Take

Based on my analysis, this announcement is nothing new. It’s just a reiteration of Elon’s plans for Tesla in the US, which were established long before Trump came to power or even before Elon officially backed Trump.

It’s just more “corporate puffery” as Elon’s lawyers would say.

Also, if I wasn’t clear, we are only talking about production here. I doubt Tesla will have the demand for that, especially if Elon remains involved with the company.

The Cybercab doesn’t even have a steering wheel, and if Tesla doesn’t solve self-driving, it will be hard to justify producing 450,000 units per year.