NHL playoff watch: Who will make the Eastern Conference finals?

Each team has around 20 games remaining this season — although Aaron Ekblad will be missing all 18 of the Florida Panthers‘ remaining regular-season games due to a suspension — but it’s not too early to look ahead at the dream matchups for the conference finals and Stanley Cup Final.

One of the contests during Tuesday’s 11-game slate is a possible Eastern Conference finals preview: the Tampa Bay Lightning visit the Carolina Hurricanes (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+) in a showdown between two teams built for postseason success.

The winner won’t necessarily have an edge as we head toward the postseason, but we can look at the projections from Stathletes to see the likelihood of a rematch later this spring.

Per the Stathletes model, the Hurricanes have the highest chances of making the ECF, at 48.2%, followed by the Panthers (38.2%), Washington Capitals (30.6%) and then the Lightning (29.8%); the Toronto Maple Leafs round out the top five at 18.6%.

If it comes down to the Canes and Lightning, Tampa Bay has the historical upper hand, winning the teams’ lone series against each other, albeit during the slightly unusual 2021 playoffs, when those two teams were in the realigned Central Division (along with the Panthers, Chicago Blackhawks, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings and Nashville Predators).

There is a lot of runway left until the final day of the season April 17, and we’ll help you keep track of it all on the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide detail on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Columbus Blue Jackets
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils

Western Conference

C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Calgary Flames
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

Tuesday’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
Columbus Blue Jackets at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m.
Ottawa Senators at Philadelphia Flyers, 7 p.m.
Vegas Golden Knights at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 p.m.
Tampa Bay Lightning at Carolina Hurricanes, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu/Disney+)
Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m.
New York Rangers at Winnipeg Jets, 8 p.m.
Montreal Canadiens at Vancouver Canucks, 10 p.m.
Washington Capitals at Anaheim Ducks, 10 p.m.
New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings, 10:30 p.m.
Nashville Predators at San Jose Sharks, 10:30 p.m.

Monday’s scoreboard

Buffalo Sabres 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Ottawa Senators 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
Colorado Avalanche 3, Chicago Blackhawks 0
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Utah Hockey Club 3 (SO)

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 18
Points pace: 106.3
Next game: @ BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 103.8
Next game: vs. FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 19
Points pace: 101.5
Next game: @ CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 19
Points pace: 92.4
Next game: @ PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 91.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 85.9
Next game: @ VAN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 9.7%
Tragic number: 35

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 84.6
Next game: vs. BUF (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 9.4%
Tragic number: 33

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 83.3
Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 5.6%
Tragic number: 31

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 72.9
Next game: @ DET (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 25

Metro Division

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 18
Points pace: 117.9
Next game: @ ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: vs. TB (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 93.4
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 93.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 91.1
Next game: @ NJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 42.1%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 87.1
Next game: @ WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 28.1%
Tragic number: 35

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 86.0
Next game: @ LA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 16.9%
Tragic number: 36

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 78.2
Next game: vs. OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 2.4%
Tragic number: 27

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 74.6
Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.3%
Tragic number: 23

Central Division

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 116.1
Next game: @ PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 110.2
Next game: @ WPG (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 100.9
Next game: @ MIN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 18
Points pace: 97.4
Next game: s. COL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 91.1%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 87.1
Next game: @ PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 29.9%
Tragic number: 34

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 85.8
Next game: vs. ANA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 25.7%
Tragic number: 34

Points: 55
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 71.6
Next game: @ SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 24

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 61.8
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 14

Pacific Division

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 19
Points pace: 106.7
Next game: @ PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 99.9
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 20
Points pace: 99.2
Next game: vs. NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 97.3%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 91.1
Next game: vs. VAN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 35.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 89.8
Next game: vs. MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 20.4%
Tragic number: 38

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: vs. WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.3%
Tragic number: 32

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 73.2
Next game: vs. MTL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 23

Points: 43
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 54.3
Next game: vs. NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 8

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.

Points: 43
Regulation wins: 12

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 55
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23