NHL playoff watch: Who wins the Central Division?

As has been the case for the past few campaigns, the Central Division includes multiple top-tier Stanley Cup contenders this season. Going simply by points percentage, the Central boasts the second- (Winnipeg Jets) and third-best (Dallas Stars) teams in the league, as well as the eighth (Colorado Avalanche).

Those first two clubs face off Friday night (8 p.m. ET, NHL Network), with one additional matchup on the schedule (April 10 in Dallas). The Jets and Stars have split the season series thus far, and Winnipeg holds the No. 1 spot in the division, with 94 points and 37 regulation wins in 66 games. Dallas is not out of range to make a run at that spot, with 86 points and 35 RW in 64 games.

Neither team wants to match up against Colorado in the first round, as the Avs loaded up (again) at the trade deadline, including deals for Brock Nelson and Charlie Coyle. Colorado is at 81 points and 34 RW through 66 games and theoretically could catch the other two teams, but it would need losing streaks out of its opponents to make much of a dent. The Avs visit the Calgary Flames on Friday (9 p.m. ET, ESPN+).

How do the projections see this playing out for the rest of the season — and beyond? Stathletes projects the three teams to finish in the exact same order: Jets (115.2 points), Stars (106.7) and Avalanche (103.0). But, of those three clubs, the Avs have the highest chance of winning it all (15.3%), followed by the Jets (8.8%) and Stars (2.4%).

There is a lot of runway left until April 17, the final day of the regular season, and we’ll help you keep track of it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Columbus Blue Jackets
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils

Western Conference

C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Calgary Flames
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

Friday’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

Detroit Red Wings at Carolina Hurricanes, 7 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders, 7:30 p.m.
Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets, 8 p.m. (NHLN)
Colorado Avalanche at Calgary Flames, 9 p.m.
Nashville Predators at Anaheim Ducks, 10 p.m.
Utah Hockey Club at Seattle Kraken, 10 p.m.

Thursday’s scoreboard

Florida Panthers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Ottawa Senators 6, Boston Bruins 3
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, St. Louis Blues 3
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
New Jersey Devils 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
New York Rangers 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (OT)
Los Angeles Kings 3, Washington Capitals 0
San Jose Sharks 4, Chicago Blackhawks 2

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 105.6
Next game: @ MTL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: vs. OTT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 99.7
Next game: @ BOS (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 94.6
Next game: @ TOR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 97.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 87.1
Next game: vs. FLA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 10.9%
Tragic number: 34

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 85.8
Next game: @ CAR (Friday)
Playoff chances: 12%
Tragic number: 33

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 83.2
Next game: vs. TB (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 13.7%
Tragic number: 29

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 71.8
Next game: vs. VGK (Saturday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 23

Metro Division

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 116.8
Next game: @ SJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 103.5
Next game: vs. DET (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 95.5
Next game: @ PIT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 95.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 88.3
Next game: vs. NYR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 32.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 87.0
Next game: @ CBJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 23.9%
Tragic number: 33

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 83.3
Next game: vs. EDM (Friday)
Playoff chances: 12.4%
Tragic number: 32

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 78.3
Next game: vs. CAR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 1.0%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 77.2
Next game: vs. NJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0.3%
Tragic number: 23

Central Division

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 116.8
Next game: vs. DAL (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 110.2
Next game: @ WPG (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: @ CGY (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 98.2
Next game: vs. STL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 94.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 87.1
Next game: @ SEA (Friday)
Playoff chances: 26.6%
Tragic number: 33

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: @ MIN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 29.2%
Tragic number: 31

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 73.0
Next game: @ ANA (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 23

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 60.9
Next game: @ VAN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 11

Pacific Division

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 107.2
Next game: @ BUF (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 101.2
Next game: vs. NSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 98.2%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 98.4
Next game: @ NYI (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 91.0
Next game: vs. COL (Friday)
Playoff chances: 29.4%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 89.6
Next game: vs. CHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 22.1%
Tragic number: 35

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 79.5
Next game: vs. NSH (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 27

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 74.6
Next game: vs. UTA (Friday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 55.1
Next game: vs. WSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 5

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.

Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 23