NHL playoff watch: Maple Leafs-Avalanche a Cup Final preview?

The 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs begin in late April, culminating with the Stanley Cup Final in June. Although the identity of the 16 playoff teams has yet to be determined, it’s never too early to project dream Cup Final matchups.

Could one of those pairings be in preview mode Wednesday night?

The Colorado Avalanche — who loaded up at the trade deadline with Brock Nelson, Ryan Lindgren and Charlie Coyle — will visit the Toronto Maple Leafs — a team that added “playoff style” performers in Brandon Carlo and Scott Laughton — in one of two games on the schedule (7 p.m. ET, TNT).

To be clear, this would be a wildly divergent path for Toronto compared to recent seasons. A trip to the Cup Final would be the Leafs’ first time there since 1967, when they last won the Cup. The Avs also won the Cup in their most recent trip to the Cup Final, though their championship was in 2022.

Our NHL insiders debated their Cup Final matchups this week, and the Avs made one ballot while the Leafs didn’t make any.

As for the projections, Stathletes gives Colorado a 23.3% chance of making the Cup Final, which is highest among Western Conference teams; Toronto has 12.6% chances, which is fourth among Eastern contenders. This specific matchup has a 2.91% chance of occurring, which is 12th most likely — Avs vs. Carolina Hurricanes is No. 1, at 6.32%.

There is a lot of runway left until April 17, the final day of the regular season, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Florida Panthers vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils

Western Conference

C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 Vancouver Canucks
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

Wednesday’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7 p.m. (TNT)
Seattle Kraken at Minnesota Wild, 9:30 p.m. (TNT)

Tuesday’s scoreboard

Montreal Canadiens 6, Ottawa Senators 3
Calgary Flames 2, New York Rangers 1
New York Islanders 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Washington Capitals 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Dallas Stars 4, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Seattle Kraken 6, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Edmonton Oilers 7, Utah Hockey Club 1
Vancouver Canucks 6, Winnipeg Jets 2

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 101.6
Next game: @ DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 101.6
Next game: vs. COL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 94.2
Next game: vs. COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89.3
Next game: @ NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 18.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 84.4
Next game: @ VGK (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 11.6%
Tragic number: 26

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 2.4%
Tragic number: 23

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 74.6
Next game: @ UTA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 20

Metro Division

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 118.2
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105.3
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 95.1
Next game: vs. CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 96.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 85.6
Next game: vs. TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 45.3%
Tragic number: 26

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: vs. MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 15.1%
Tragic number: 28

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85.7
Next game: vs. FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 10.8%
Tragic number: 28

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 77.3
Next game: vs. CBJ (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0.6%
Tragic number: 18

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 76.1
Next game: @ WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 18

Central Division

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 116.5
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 108.9
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 102.5
Next game: @ TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 97.7
Next game: vs. SEA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 94.4%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 89.1
Next game: vs. VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 46.2%
Tragic number: 27

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 85.6
Next game: vs. BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 24.8%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 71.0
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 14

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 59.1
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 3

Pacific Division

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105.3
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 101.3
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 16
Points pace: 100.6
Next game: @ CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 90.4
Next game: @ STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 22.1%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89.3
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 13%
Tragic number: 29

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 79.6
Next game: @ NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 20

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 77.2
Next game: @ MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 17

Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 54.3
Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Note: An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.

Points: 45
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 30

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25