NHL playoff watch: Can the Islanders sneak into the playoffs?

As play began on the day after the NHL trade deadline, the New York Islanders were four points behind the Ottawa Senators, who were in possession of the final wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference. There were also four teams between the Isles and Sens.

Fast-forward to Wednesday, and the gap between the Islanders and another playoff berth is just one point. Can they pull this off?

The first team standing in their way is the Vancouver Canucks, who visit UBS Arena on Wednesday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+). The Canucks are fighting for their own playoff berth, trying to catch a resurgent St. Louis Blues team that has caught fire since the deadline. So this game will be no gimme for the hosts.

From then on, things get more difficult: The next five games are against playoff-bound teams — the Tampa Bay Lightning (twice!), Carolina Hurricanes, Minnesota Wild and Washington Capitals. They get a one-game respite against the Nashville Predators, then close out with Metro Division foes — the New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers, New Jersey Devils, Capitals again and Columbus Blue Jackets — who will be in no mood to do the Isles any favors.

The road will be tough, but many have counted this team out before at their own peril. The Stathletes projections give the Isles a 24.3% chance of proving the doubters wrong again.

There is less than a month left until April 17, the final day of the regular season, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Florida Panthers vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils

Western Conference

C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 St. Louis Blues
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

Wednesday’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders, 7:30 p.m.
New Jersey Devils at Chicago Blackhawks, 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers, 10 p.m. (TNT)
Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks, 10 p.m.

Tuesday’s scoreboard

Buffalo Sabres 3, Ottawa Senators 2
Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Nashville Predators 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
St. Louis Blues 6, Montreal Canadiens 1
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Minnesota Wild 1
Winnipeg Jets 3, Washington Capitals 2 (OT)
Colorado Avalanche 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Calgary Flames 4, Seattle Kraken 3 (OT)
Los Angeles Kings 3, New York Rangers 1

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 102.8
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 102.8
Next game: vs. UTA (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 11
Points pace: 100.5
Next game: vs. UTA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 12
Points pace: 92.5
Next game: @ DET (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 97.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 87.9
Next game: @ PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 38.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 83.2
Next game: vs. OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 3.4%
Tragic number: 20

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 78.6
Next game: @ ANA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0.2%
Tragic number: 15

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 75.0
Next game: vs. MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 14

Metro Division

Points: 103
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 119.0
Next game: @ MIN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 103.9
Next game: vs. MTL (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 92.3
Next game: @ CHI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 96.4%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 86.7
Next game: vs. VAN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 30.9%
Tragic number: 24

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 84.3
Next game: @ ANA (Friday)
Playoff chances: 16.4%
Tragic number: 20

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 85.5
Next game: vs. VAN (Friday)
Playoff chances: 16.2%
Tragic number: 23

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 77.5
Next game: @ BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 13

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 73.0
Next game: vs. MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 9

Central Division

Points: 102
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 116.2
Next game: vs. NJ (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 110.1
Next game: @ EDM (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 103.6
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 96.8
Next game: vs. WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 91.4%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 93.2
Next game: @ NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 81.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 86.6
Next game: @ TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 4.1%
Tragic number: 15

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 71.6
Next game: vs. STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 2

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 58.9
Next game: vs. NJ (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Pacific Division

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 108.6
Next game: @ CHI (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 12
Points pace: 104.3
Next game: @ COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 12
Points pace: 101.9
Next game: vs. DAL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.0%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 92.5
Next game: vs. DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 18.1%
Tragic number: 21

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 90.1
Next game: @ NYI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 5.9%
Tragic number: 18

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 79.7
Next game: vs. BOS (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 75.2
Next game: vs. EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 4

Points: 47
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 55.1
Next game: vs. TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Note: An “x” means that the team has clinched a playoff berth. An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.

Points: 47
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 64
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 31

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 26