NHL playoff watch: Who will win the Atlantic Division crown?

Many playoff races are coming right down to the wire. And while the three top teams in the Atlantic Division are expected to qualify for the postseason, the order in which they’ll finish remains a mystery.

What’s at stake? The winner of the division draws a first-round matchup against a wild-card team — likely the Ottawa Senators. The teams that finish second and third will square off with one another, with the No. 2 seed having home-ice advantage.

When Sunday’s games begin, the Toronto Maple Leafs will be in the No. 1 spot, with 92 points in the standings. The Florida Panthers are second, having earned 91 standings points in one fewer game (72) than the Tampa Bay Lightning (73).

By season’s end, if there is a tie in points, the first tiebreaker is regulation wins; currently, the Lightning hold the edge with 37, while the Leafs have 36 and the Panthers have 35.

Florida is the first of the three clubs in action next, as it will host the Montreal Canadiens on Sunday (1 p.m. ET, NHL Network). The Leafs continue their West Coast road trip by visiting the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+), while the Lightning play Tuesday at the New York Islanders.

The Panthers have two games remaining against the Leafs (Wednesday in Toronto, April 8 in Sunrise) and one against the Lightning (April 15 in Tampa Bay). Toronto plays its last regular-season game against Tampa Bay on April 9 in Central Florida.

Overall, the Leafs have the toughest remaining strength of schedule of the three teams (opposing win percentage of 51.3%, 11th toughest in the league); the Panthers are next (49.5%, 21st), and the Lightning have the easiest road (47.6%, 25th).

Stathletes projects the Lightning to have the highest chances of winning the division (44.5%), followed by the Panthers (33.9%) and Leafs (21.6%).

Is that how everything will play out? Stay tuned.

There are less than three weeks left until April 17, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Florida Panthers vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 New York Rangers
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils

Western Conference

C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 St. Louis Blues
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

Sunday’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).

Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers, 1 p.m. (NHL)
Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals, 3 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at Winnipeg Jets, 3 p.m.
Utah Hockey Club at Chicago Blackhawks, 4 p.m.
Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins, 5 p.m.
New York Islanders at Carolina Hurricanes, 5 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks, 8 p.m.
San Jose Sharks at Los Angeles Kings, 10 p.m. (ESPN)

Saturday’s scoreboard

Philadelphia Flyers 7, Buffalo Sabres 4
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, New York Islanders 3
St. Louis Blues 2, Colorado Avalanche 1
New Jersey Devils 5, Minnesota Wild 2
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Nashville Predators 1
Ottawa Senators 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Los Angeles Kings 1
Detroit Red Wings 2, Boston Bruins 1
Edmonton Oilers 3, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
New York Rangers 6, San Jose Sharks 1
Dallas Stars 5, Seattle Kraken 1

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 103.3
Next game: @ ANA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 103.6
Next game: vs. MTL (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 9
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: @ NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 94.5
Next game: @ PIT (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.6%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 85.4
Next game: @ FLA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 28%
Tragic number: 19

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: @ STL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 2.3%
Tragic number: 16

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 76.5
Next game: vs. WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 9

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 75.2
Next game: @ WSH (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 10

Metro Division

Points: 103
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 117.3
Next game: vs. BUF (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 104.8
Next game: vs. NYI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 7
Points pace: 92.9
Next game: vs. MIN (Monday)
Playoff chances: 97.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 85.3
Next game: vs. MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 18.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 85.4
Next game: vs. NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 28.7%
Tragic number: 19

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 84.3
Next game: @ CAR (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 24.7%
Tragic number: 18

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 76.5
Next game: vs. OTT (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 9

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 75.4
Next game: vs. NSH (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 7

Central Division

Points: 104
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 116.8
Next game: vs. VAN (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 112.3
Next game: @ SEA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 93
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 8
Points pace: 103.1
Next game: vs. CGY (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 96.4
Next game: @ NJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: 96.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 7
Points pace: 95.1
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 89.8%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 85.4
Next game: @ CHI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.6%
Tragic number: 8

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 69.6
Next game: @ PHI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 57.3
Next game: vs. UTA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Pacific Division

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 110.1
Next game: vs. EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 101.4
Next game: vs. SJ (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 100.0
Next game: @ VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 95.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 91.0
Next game: @ WPG (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 6.4%
Tragic number: 13

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 91.1
Next game: @ COL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 10.8%
Tragic number: 14

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 82.0
Next game: vs. TOR (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 6

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 75.4
Next game: vs. DAL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 55.8
Next game: @ LA (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Note: An “x” means that the team has clinched a playoff berth. An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.

Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26