India and Pakistan edging closer to miscalculation that neither can afford

Both India and Pakistan claim they don’t want all-out war and don’t want things to escalate.

Both sides also maintain they’re treading carefully.

But they want to claim victory too, and that elusive ambition feels like it’s edging closer to a miscalculation that neither can afford.

India-Pakistan live: Latest updates after cross-border firing

At the very least, it feels like the scope for more tit-for-tat exchanges has increased, and the off-ramp looks a little further away.

Pakistan has inflicted some serious damage to India’s military sites and it’s hard to imagine New Delhi will resist the opportunity to respond with further strikes.

This is about national pride and both sides have a domestic audience pushing them to act.

In Pakistan, the government and military are struggling on the popularity front and may see this conflict as an opportunity to unify a splintered nation.

Sometimes, foes talk tough and act soft.

Read more on the conflict:
Civilians killed as Pakistan and India trade strikes over Kashmir
How India and Pakistan’s militaries match up
The story of India and Pakistan’s deadly conflict

This time, it feels like the opposite dynamic is taking root. Yes, the international community is trying to mediate – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iran and the US are trying to talk both sides down, among others.

And we must treat the rhetorical sparring on both sides with caution.

But unlike previous inflection points in the past, the world seems less involved and more distracted this time around. That could prove critical and costly.

We’re witnessing the worst violence in decades. If people were looking for reassurance this morning, this isn’t it.

Both sides have often shown striking strategic restraint. But their enmity is enduring, and right now, it feels a bit complacent to assume they will just quietly walk back from the brink.

The next 48 hours will be a very testing moment.