Trump’s tariffs stall US battery momentum as China powers ahead

China has reclaimed the No. 1 spot on BloombergNEF’s annual Global Lithium-Ion Battery Supply Chain Ranking, bumping Canada to second place, as its low electricity prices and strong infrastructure gave it the edge in 2024.

The report ranks 30 countries based on how well they’re positioned to build a secure and sustainable battery supply chain, and this year’s reshuffling says a lot about where the market’s headed.

Canada, which had taken the lead in 2023, held onto a solid second-place finish, tied with the US. But while Canada is still a leader in battery raw materials and continues to attract investors with its stable political environment, it’s been slow to scale up battery manufacturing. That drop in momentum left the door open for China to reclaim its lead.

The US is facing its own set of challenges. The Inflation Reduction Act gave America’s battery industry a significant boost last year, but that progress is now under threat. Donald Trump’s latest tariffs and climate rollbacks are starting to push up costs for US battery makers. They’re also making the US less attractive to investors, which could slow down new projects and shrink domestic demand for EVs and storage systems.

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“Brazil and Indonesia registered the largest gains in the fifth edition of the ranking,” said Ellie Gomes-Callus, a metals and mining associate at BloombergNEF. “Growth across these emerging markets has been driven by surging demand and ambitious policy roadmaps. However, all eyes will be on the US this year, as it awaits the impact of the Trump administration’s trade policies.”

Japan and South Korea also climbed higher in the top 10. Their early lead in building out battery supply chains is still paying off, even as global competition heats up and profit margins shrink. Like China, they’ve managed to hold strong in all five of BloombergNEF’s scoring categories: raw materials, manufacturing, demand, ESG (environmental, social, and governance), and innovation.

Europe, on the other hand, is starting to slip. Out of 11 European countries in the ranking, only the Czech Republic and Turkey improved their standings this year. Five stayed the same, and four dropped. Hungary and Finland saw the biggest falls – seven and six spots, respectively. Hungary is now second-worst in Europe for ESG metrics, and Finland’s once-promising nickel and cobalt industries have lost steam, partly due to tough permitting rules. Case in point: BASF’s new battery component plant in Harjavalta has been delayed by permitting issues.

Without stronger government action and better support for manufacturers, Europe risks losing even more ground to fast-moving markets in South America and Southeast Asia.

The report also highlighted some other trends shaping the global battery race. Canada stayed strong overall but lost ground in manufacturing. A few major companies, including Ford, E-One Moli, and Umicore, have paused investments despite new government support, citing weaker-than-expected demand.

Meanwhile, Europe’s battery growth is slowing as capacity lags behind other regions and demand softens due to smaller market sizes and EV saturation in places like the Nordics. Countries in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia are falling behind as a result.

The raw materials side of the market isn’t looking great either. Supply is up, but demand is down. There’s too much material and not enough buyers. And while the market for mined metals is overflowing, refined battery metals tell a more mixed story. Still, one thing hasn’t changed: China remains the dominant force in refining, and it’s still leading the way in building new manufacturing capacity, even as other countries struggle to scale up.

Unless the US and Europe can course-correct quickly, they may find themselves watching from the sidelines as China and emerging economies lead the next phase of the global battery boom.

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